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Morning Bid: Wall Street's growth gasp as rates, dollar, oil skid​

June 4, 2024 6:08 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With a still-powerful "buy the dip" instinct in stocks, U.S. markets are having a rare bout of jitters about a slowing economy - with Treasury yields, the dollar and oil prices all swooning over the past 24 hours.

Wall Street's tech-led "bounce-ability" was on display again on Monday as the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab clawed back sharp intra-day losses to close higher on the day.

But the rates, currency and commodities complex is riffing heavily off further signs of a sharp U.S. factory slowdown.

While an economic stumble at this stage could be a double-edged sword for near-record high stocks - twinning the earnings implications with the higher chance of lower Federal Reserve rates - the push-pull could continue up to this week's key employment report at least.

S&P500 futures are back in the red ahead of Tuesday's open, with stock losses across most of Asia and Europe today too.

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Stocks, commodities sucked into 'risk-off' vortex on US economy jitters​

LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Stocks and commodities slid on Tuesday, as investors grew increasingly uneasy about evidence that the U.S. economy's "exceptionalism" may be starting to unwind as manufacturing activity there weakened further.

Several measures of volatility picked up, reflecting a degree of nervousness among traders, while classic safe-haven assets like bonds and the dollar itself remained in positive territory.

Oil, copper and gold also fell in the face of the stronger U.S. currency.

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Morning Bid: Dip buying persists, Canada set to ease​

June 5, 2024 6:10 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Any investor trepidation about a slowing U.S. economy is once again being offset by renewed interest rate cut hopes - seeing the third day in row that Wall St stocks have turned around early losses to end higher by the close.

In a week packed with employment updates, Tuesday's hat-trick of late market rallies followed further signs of a cooling U.S. labor market. U.S. job openings fell more than expected in April to the lowest in more than three years, with the ratio of vacancies to job-seekers also back at mid-2021 levels.

With one eye on Friday's May employment report, Wednesday's release of ADP's private sector job survey is next on the slate and a modest slowdown in job creation to 175,000 is forecast.

But already Federal Reserve rate cut speculation is back on the boil - with 45 basis points of 2024 Fed easing back in the futures strip and a near 80% chance of pre-election first move priced by September.

Aided by this week's plunge in energy prices and crude oil back at February levels, U.S. Treasury yields ebbed further on Tuesday before steadying today as they await the big jobs release later in the week.

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Price Wars: How Target's Strategies are Shaping the Industry -- Carl Gould #6077

Jun 5, 2024

Kerry Lutz and Carl Gould discussed the impact of Target's recent price reductions on consumer behavior and the retail industry, as well as the potential implications for the economy and the upcoming election. They also highlighted the fragility of the supply chain due to shortages in the housing market and truck drivers, as well as incidents like the Suez Canal blockage and the drought at the Panama Canal. They suggested that small to mid-sized businesses may need to adapt by diversifying their sourcing to de-risk their supply chain. Finally, they explored the potential impact of AI and automation on various industries, including the challenges of autonomous driving in urban areas and the potential for job displacement.


17:31

 

Endless Wars, Cyber Attacks and the New World Order Ahead: Simon Hunt​

Jun 5, 2024 Commodity Culture

Simon Hunt sees accelerating global conflict, geopolitical upheaval and a potential cyber attack on the banking sector as risks investors should be aware of, and good reasons to hold physical gold and silver. Simon also gives his outlook for copper and oil, along with explaining why the West has been deeply misled by the media on Russia and China.


34:45

00:00 Introduction
01:19 Main Trends in Markets Today
06:04 Stock Gold and Food
08:45 Outlook For Copper
20:29 Is China the Next Superpower?
27:08 Outlook For Oil Market
29:50 We've Been Misled on Russia and China
 

 

Scrap Market Report: Copper Falls, Steel Declines & Carbide Rises​

📈 Check Scrap Prices: https://iScrapApp.com/ - In this week's scrap metal market update, we analyze the significant fluctuations observed over the past week. Copper prices have dropped again, highlighting market instability, while transportation cost reductions have impacted steel prices. Aluminum has seen a decline after previous gains, and brass prices have dipped slightly. Stainless steel remains stable despite decreasing nickel prices, and catalytic converter prices have held steady. As we enter June, interest rates are poised to play a critical role in shaping the market. Additionally, we cover the notable increase in carbide prices. Stay informed and learn how to navigate these market changes for strategic decision-making in the scrap industry.

👉 Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/weekly-scr...


17:02
 

Morning Bid: New highs as Nvidia tops Apple, ECB and BoC easing​

June 6, 2024 6:11 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street's tech-led stock surge to new records has seen $3 trillion AI-champion Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab replace Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab as the world's 2nd most valuable company in a market infused with interest rate cut excitement across the G7.

With the European Central Bank set to follow the Bank of Canada on Thursday with its first interest rate cut of the cycle, four countries of the G7 economic bloc will be in easing mode - with two more coming down the pike later this year.

Balancing them all, currency markets are taking it on the chin - with the euro and Canadian dollar relatively serene on the foreign exchanges despite the moves.

That's mainly because Federal Reserve rate cut speculation is stirring again too. Having gone from pricing at least 6 cuts in 2024 at the start of the year to just one last week, Fed futures markets are now settling on two quarter-point reductions - starting in September before the election.

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Take Five: Which way to look first?​

LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings, a G7 gathering, plus key U.S. inflation and UK jobs data are all coming up in the week ahead - and that's not all.

Markets will digest results from the June 6-9 European Union election and Britain's Labour Party is expected to unveil its policy plans before a July 4 election it is tipped to win.

Here's the lowdown on the week ahead in world markets from Lewis Krauskopf and Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Karin Strohecker, Dhara Ranasinghe and David Milliken in London:

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Fearnleys Week 23

Drewry - WCI June 6

Capital Link Shipping Week 23

 

It's a Giant "S" Sandwich and We're Going to Be Living On it -- John Rubino​

Jun 6, 2024

Kerry Lutz and John Rubino discussed various indicators pointing towards an economic slowdown, attributing it to factors like higher interest rates and government interventions through liquidity injections. They also touched upon the upcoming election and its potential influence on the economic narrative. The speakers expressed differing views on whether the current trend in the gold and silver market represents a temporary correction or a continuation of the bull market.

The conversation also explored the multifaceted impact of current events on the political landscape, emphasizing the challenges faced by the Biden administration, such as inflation, border control issues, and escalating international conflicts. They highlighted the emergence of a paradigm shift towards government intervention and the implications for future political strategies. Additionally, the speakers engaged in a speculative conversation about the potential imprisonment of Trump, considering the implications and motivations behind such a scenario. Finally, they discussed the escalating tensions in Ukraine, expressing deep concern about the potential for World War III and analyzing the involvement of NATO and the US.


26:12
 

Morning Bid: US check on sub-4% jobless, China imports slow​

June 7, 2024 6:05 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After a frenetic week of G7 interest rate cuts, new records for stocks, another scramble for AI and a wave of elections, world markets have frozen awaiting the U.S. employment report.

The May payrolls report comes just ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting and most of the labor market updates in recent days have indicated a gradual cooling in employment.

For the record, consensus forecasts indicate non-farm payrolls growth picked up a touch last month to 185,000 from 175,000 in April - and the monthly rise in average earnings also ticked higher to 0.3%.

But the unemployment rate is set to remain at 3.9% and if that holds, Deutsche Bank strategists point out, it will mark the 28th month below 4% - the longest such stretch since the 1950s.

It would have to be a shocker for recession alarm bells to sound and would need to jump as high as 4.3% to trigger the oft-cited "Sahm rule". Developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, it suggests a recession red flag if the rolling three-month average jobless rate rises half a point above the low of the prior 12 months.

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Something funky happening in the commodities trading plumbing...

Trafigura is a multinational commodity trading company domiciled in Singapore[5] with major regional hubs in Geneva, Houston, Montevideo and Mumbai, founded in 1993. The company trades in base metals and energy. It is the world's largest private metals trader and second-largest oil trader having built or purchased stakes in pipelines, mines, smelters, ports and storage terminals.
...

 
Little bit of this, little bit of that in this podcast. Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Doug Casey's Take [ep.#329] How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World​

Jun 7, 2024 Doug Casey's Take

In this episode, Doug Casey answers questions from members of his private group regarding various topics, including his choice of last meal, drink, and cigar. He delves into philosophical questions about altruism, personal ethics, and the concept of sacrifice. Doug also provides his thoughts on potential geopolitical conflicts such as a U.S. Civil War, World War III, and the situation in Ukraine. He comments on the Dollar Milkshake Theory, the potential for Civil War in the U.S., and the importance of diversifying assets. Additionally, Doug discusses Putin, China, and the state of global politics, offering insight into the Killdozer incident and the recent downgrade of Walter Block at the Mises Institute. Other topics covered include the potential of anti-aging and life extension technologies, and Doug's thoughts on personal freedom and life improvement strategies. Finally, he addresses questions about relocation to countries like Panama and shares his perspective on developing intentional communities.


1:15:47

00:00 Introduction
00:17 Doug's Last Meal on Earth
02:26 Fighting Evil vs. Hedonism
05:29 US Civil War and World War 3
07:45 Dollar Milkshake Theory and Asset Allocation
11:50 Killdozer Day: Hero or Nutcase?
14:32 Walter Block and the Israel-Palestine Conflict
22:47 Trump's Conviction and Legal Ramifications
25:07 China, EMPs, and Strategic Patience
29:14 Libertarian Novels and Future Projects
32:09 Thoughts on India and Putin
39:36 Global Political Shifts and Abnormal Psychology
40:26 The Complex Dynamics in Niger and the Sahel
43:29 Invention Funding: Pitfalls and Strategies
47:48 Investment Strategies: Commodities, Cash, and Treasuries
52:20 Multiple Intelligences: Beyond the IQ Test
55:42 Living Fulfilled Lives Amidst Global Chaos
01:01:07 Relocation Considerations: Panama and Beyond
01:02:17 Anti-Aging and Life Extension Technologies
01:09:15 Building Sustainable Communities
01:15:28 Conclusion and Next Steps
 
Podcast here, nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab. As usual, take it fwiw and dyodd.

Squawk Pod: BONUS: FTC Chair Lina Khan & Asst. AG Jonathan Kanter - 06/07/24 | Audio Only​

Jun 8, 2024 Squawk Pod

This bonus episode of Squawk Pod, from our partners at “The Keynote,” features the two most important players in the Biden Administration’s comprehensive reshaping of antitrust law. Federal Trade Commission Chairperson Lina Khan, and U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division Jonathan Kanter joined Andrew Ross Sorkin at the CNBC CEO Council Summit on June 4th 2024. They spoke about how they have reinvigorated antitrust enforcement, the challenges and opportunities of the digital age and why they feel empowered to act. Plus, one reveals their “Swiftie” status.


22:29
 

Another sluggish week for cattle | Weekly Livestock Market Update​

Jun 8, 2024 #agnews #marketanalysis #livestock

On this episode of Weekly Livestock Market Update, Meghan Grebner and Scott Brown talk Monthly Trade Data, this month’s Jobs report, and another down week for cattle.


11:39

Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
0:25 This week in the markets
2:05 Weekly Slaughter
3:00 Monthly Trade Data
7:35 Jobs Report
9:50 Next week's reports
 

People Have STOPPED PAYING THEIR STORAGE BILLS!​

Jun 8, 2024 #realestate #housingmarket #homeprices

More people have stopped paying their bills on their storage units or are falling behind. Simultaneously people are falling behind and all sorts of other bills like credit cards, car loans, even mortgage delinquencies are starting to tick up as well. If people were doing great financially this would not be happening.


18:46
 

Morning Bid: Europe jolted by Macron's snap election call​

June 10, 2024 6:20 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

The expected rightward shift in the European Parliament after a four-day election has still managed to jolt European markets as gains for the far-right in France prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election.

French bonds and stocks were sold off while the euro dropped as political uncertainty had investors heading for the exits.

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Safety and Shipping Review 2024 released by Allianz Commercial | Is Shipping Safer?​

Jun 10, 2024 #supplychain #shipping #maritime

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the recent report from Allianz Commercial on Safety and Shipping Review 2024 and whether or not global shipping is safer.


15:02

- Safety and Shipping Review 2024 https://commercial.allianz.com/conten...
 

Morning Bid: Apple's AI push and the trouble with Europe​

June 11, 2024 6:04 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

To anyone watching the stock market over the last year, it would seem the letters "AI" are akin to a magic wand that will pump up the share price of any company involved in it.

That sprinkle of pixie dust has made chipmaker Nvidia the world's second-most valuable company after Microsoft, which in turn has seen its own shares rise 30% in the last 12 months, leaving Apple in the number three spot.

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US corn and soybean crop in best shape since 2018​

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn and soybean crops are in great shape early in the growing season, and although there is plenty of time for fortune to turn, this year’s harvest is already in good company.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday pegged 72% of U.S. soybeans as being in good or excellent health, in the agency’s first assessment of the season. That was in line with trade expectations and is above the 10-year average for initial soy ratings of 68%.

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