Crypto trading/market thread

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According to a report from Finder, a panel of 40 industry specialists predict that Bitcoin's price will rise to an average of $77,423 by year-end 2024 before rising to $122,688 in 2025.

“The halving, easing macro conditions and enhanced access through ETFs are fundamentally positive price forces for the year as a whole,” said Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research.

Lunde said he thinks Bitcoin will peak at $79,000 in 2024, before reaching $150,000 in 2025, as it will take time for inflows into ETFs to “materialize in price effect, as it also introduces structural changes to the market.”

“Overall, the majority (58%) of panelists say now is the time to buy BTC, 38% to hold, and only 5% to sell,” Finder concluded.

Can't speak for article's veracity.

Over 2 percent of the US’s electricity generation now goes to bitcoin​

US government tracking the energy implications of booming bitcoin mining in US.

What exactly is bitcoin mining doing to the electric grid? In the last few years, the US has seen a boom in cryptocurrency mining, and the government is now trying to track exactly what that means for the consumption of electricity. While its analysis is preliminary, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates that large-scale cryptocurrency operations are now consuming over 2 percent of the US's electricity. That's roughly the equivalent of having added an additional state to the grid over just the last three years.


Link from article:

It all leads back to the basic question von Mises tried to answer: What is money?

Bitcoin answers many of those qualities, but not a couple. First, it needs elaborate infrastructure - AND GOVERNMENT PERMISSIONS, FREE FROM EXORBITANT FEES intended to discourage it - for it to work. Electricity; computers; a working computer network. All of which cannot be presupposed, once the government fiat and public finances collapse.

Then, it is not assured to be not-easily-duplicable. Yeah, yeah, yeah, blockchain. Who can explain it, proof-positive, that it cannot be copied or hacked? Few. We don't KNOW who wrote it, yet we are to believe the glib assurances from fanboiz. Who are mostly talking their own wallets.

I have tried to look into it. Both the knowledge required - I don't understand coding, and God knows I've tried, over the years, to learn some of it - and, the cost - to buy a secure wallet-USB storage-stick, and to arrange payment (in dollars, of course, how's that for irony?) to sellers...just tells me, no.

Gold was good enough for the Romans. It was good enough for the Spaniards. It was good enough for 19th-century British. And I can buy it, easily - all I need is the money. Six PM dealers within a 10-mile radius of me. Money, gold. Only knowledge needed is, how to secure it properly; and how to possibly redeem it for smaller currency in the future.
It all leads back to the basic question von Mises tried to answer: What is money?

Bitcoin answers many of those qualities, but not a couple. ...


Who can explain it, proof-positive, that it cannot be copied or hacked? ...

The design and network/code are public domain. There is no inscrutable black box. Of course, you do need some knowledge of math and/or coding to evaluate it critically.

That said, BTC has been around for over a decade now without any network/wallet hacks. This against a backdrop where other crypto systems (DeFi systems in particular) are regularly exploited if they have vulnerabilities. I am confident that the BTC system is secure from hacking exploits (though other risks remain).
This is worth keeping an eye on:
Crypto lender Genesis Global Capital, currently undergoing bankruptcy proceedings, has requested permission to sell trust assets worth approximately $1.6 billion.

In a motion filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York, the firm sought approval to sell assets held by Genesis, a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group.

The assets include shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) valued at around $1.4 billion, shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust valued at about $165 million, and shares of Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust valued at approximately $38 million


If approved, the GBTC selling will likely increase downside pressure on BTC for a little bit. Maybe the last good entry point / dip before it flys in 2024.
Bitcoin might be getting a Bukele election boost today...
The final dress rehearsal for Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade occurred Wednesday, as the blockchain's biggest changes in almost a year took place on the Holesky test network.

The test simulated “proto-danksharding,” a technical feature aimed at reducing the cost of transactions for rollups as well as making data availability cheaper, through the introduction of “blobs,” a new compartmentalized space for storing data.
Holesky was the last of three testnets to run through a simulation of Dencun, and was the most anticipated, since Holesky is the newest of all three testnets, with a validator set larger than Ethereum’s own network.

So in theory, if upgrades run smoothly on the Holesky blockchain, the process should go without any hiccups on mainnet.

Ethereum developers will meet on Thursday for their biweekly consensus layer call to ink a date for the mainnet Dencun upgrade, projected to happen sometime in late February or early March.

Dencun has the green light. I'm looking forward to seeing how much it reduces gas fees on Ethereum when it goes live.
This is a 43-minute documentary from DW. Some here probably already know the info presented, I found it interesting. Watched half yesterday, now watching the second half. If you watch it, take it fwiw and dyodd.

Cryptocurrencies - The future of money? | DW Documentary​

Feb 7, 2024
For some, cryptocurrencies are a dangerous bubble. For others, they represent the future of money. But what are the actual uses - and risks -- of cryptocurrencies? This documentary explores how crypto is altering global financial architecture.

Since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved into a digital global currency that is challenging the existing financial system. The international availability and rapid increase in the value of Bitcoin attracted many to join this game of chance. The President of El Salvador even adopted Bitcoin as his nation’s official currency. However, most governments have positioned themselves against cryptocurrencies that aren’t regulated by states.

The European Central Bank is predicting Bitcoin’s imminent demise. At the same time, the ECB also recognizes the need for digital money in a world that’s so reliant on the Internet. The digital Euro, for use as a payment method via Smartphone, is expected to be available soon. This documentary by Tom Ockers and Ulrich Stein explores how cryptocurrencies are altering global financial architecture. They hear from profiteers and victims, supporters and critics of the new digital currencies.

The European Central Bank is predicting Bitcoin’s imminent demise. ...

I wonder if they have a citation for that. AFAIK, the ECB, Fed, et al are not in the business of making market predictions or dispensing investment advice.
I wonder if they have a citation for that.

Different pros & cons in the vid. Really well done imo. No politics or personal views, just a look at crypto. Lotta good points made for blockchain tech. Worth a watch for anyone interested.

Ethereum developers set a target date of March 13 for its long-awaited Dencun upgrade during a bi-weekly coordinating call on Thursday, officially triggering the countdown to the blockchain's biggest changes since April 2023.

March 13 - Dencun upgrade
May 23 - spot ETH ETF decision deadline for the SEC

BTC generally lifts all crypto boats and is likely to rise throughout the year. On top of that, Ethereum has it's own drivers that should encourage value growth.

AFAIK, Ethereum does not have a GBTC analogue in the ETF approval pool, so a May approval of the ETFs should be a much stronger lift than what BTC saw (because of GBTC selling).

Crypto in 2024 looks like a no brainer investment from everything I see. BTC and ETH are likely going to lift all the other boats - at least all the top crypto.
This could be huge if it works at scale:
Citrea, a project incubated by Chainway Labs, came out of stealth to propose the first Bitcoin native scaling solution involving ZK rollups. The innovation, which takes advantage of the possibilities introduced by BitVM to natively verify zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs without making any changes to the protocol, takes a different approach to blockchain scaling.

For Citrea, any project that seeks to scale Bitcoin without using its blockspace is not helping it scale and will eventually become a competition for Bitcoin itself. Also, these solutions fail to address the functionalities needed to make Bitcoin the foundation for world finance: the Lightning Network fails to add programmability to Bitcoin. Similarly, sidechains fail to use Bitcoin blockspace, diverting their action to other chains.

Citrea proposes a solution that addresses these two aspects, leveraging ZK proofs that use the Bitcoin blockspace to settle its transactions while sharding the execution task to its virtual machine. Citrea claims it is the “only execution layer on Bitcoin that settles on Bitcoin, the first ZK proof verification, and the first universal L2 verification inside Bitcoin.”

Citrea also allows the implementation of Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) apps on top of Bitcoin, allowing it to become the bedrock for different apps that have been pushed to other chains that lack the trust and security that Bitcoin offers. Nonetheless, it is not limited to EVM apps and can adopt new virtual machines due to its modular architecture.

The project is already being tested in a private testnet. Citrea reported that it is working hard to launch a public testnet for its product, with more information available in the coming months.


Did President Biden Just Endorse Bitcoin?

The octogenarian politician is sporting laser eyes on Twitter, seemingly unaware it is a symbol of support for the cryptocurrency.

PR team using a "cool" meme without understanding it's meaning. Idiots.


Franklin Templeton has applied for a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows.

The asset manager joins BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark and 21Shares, Grayscale, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy, and Hashdex, who have all submitted applications in recent months.

So many bullish headlines this morning...

Bets on futures tracking Solana’s SOL have risen to a lifetime peak of $1.7 billion in the past week, with bulls leading the charge.

Notional open interest – or the dollar value locked in the number of unsettled futures contracts – has risen over $700 million since the start of February to $1.7 billion, with $400 million added since Feb.8. This exceeds the $1.4 billion figure set in late December, the previous record when the ecosystem saw a meme coin-led frenzy.

Data from tracking service Coinalyze shows over 63% of positions are long or betting on higher prices – implying upward of $1 billion in bullish futures bets.


Crypto traders may want to pull up ether’s (ETH) relative strength index (RSI) on their screens as the popular technical analysis tool is signaling uptrend acceleration ahead.

RSI, developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements over a set period, usually 14 days or 14 weeks.

The indicator oscillates between 0 and 100, with readings above 70, indicating strong upward momentum instead of overbought conditions as popularly perceived. Meanwhile, readings below 30 show strong downward momentum.

EEther’s14-week RSI has crossed above 70. Parabolic bull runs unfolded following similar crossovers in January 2016, February 2017, December 2017, July and November 2020 and March 2021.

The ether (ETH) price rose through the $2,700 mark early Thursday for the first time since May 2022 as traders bet on the possibility of a spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S., a move that could boost its institutional appeal.

As of Thursday, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark and 21Shares, Grayscale, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy, and Hashdex, had all submitted applications for an ether ETF. ...
Traders say ether could be headed back to its 2022 highs in the coming months. The token’s lifetime peak was nearly $5,000 in November 2021.

“Possibly as part of a new wave of growth, ETH could quickly find itself approaching $3500 - returning to the April 2022 peak,” Alex Kuptsikevich, a FxPro senior market analyst, said in an email to CoinDesk.

“The 15% rise in less than nine days suggests impressive buying interest after the bulls reloaded their positions in January,” he said.

lol. The headlines are from a crypto mag, so they publish bullish news when it's there, but it isn't always there. There just happens to be some convergence of news with Bitcoin and Ethereum driving the bus. It's not always a conspiracy and "they" (meaning the elites/government) hate crypto (see war on crypto and CBDC = TOFO).
lol. The headlines are from a crypto mag, so they publish bullish news when it's there, but it isn't always there. There just happens to be some convergence of news with Bitcoin and Ethereum driving the bus. It's not always a conspiracy and "they" (meaning the elites/government) hate crypto (see war on crypto and CBDC = TOFO).
All these people trying to reinvent gold.

I had to think long and hard about this - and thanks for answering some of my questions; but "money" that I have to study up on; and where if I make a mistake with, it's disastrous; money that depends not only on my computer, but my link to the network and the OTHER party's link to that network (unlikely to be reliable once the dollar falls) and then, secure from government snoops' prying eyes (how much of what we used to think was secure, online, now is routed right into that Utah data-vacuum site?) for collection, taxation and Just now.

I have PM coins. Not so good when you're crossing borders, but the global chaos has pretty much put THAT out of mind. If/when that changes, I'll deal with reality as it is at the time; but for now, I don't want to be the guy with my money in collapsed Greyscale, or Mt. Gox, or with a thumb drive that's now obsolete...
That's true. The riggers have Captured Cryptos. Well most of them and especially the ones going UP. Everyone likes to tout how there can't be more Bitcoin ever. Which is a farce because its the DERIVATIVES of bitcoin that are expanding rapidly, like with these ETF's.

On the other hand look at Monero. A privacy coin that is actually used a lot and it gets hammered because Binance got strong armed (likely) to take it off the platform.
Not news, not a how to, it's a biography on Brock Pierce. About a third through, listening / watching in one tab paying around the forum in a different tab.

From Disney Star to Crypto-Billionaire​

Brock Pierce, Disney star turned Crypto-Billioniare shares insights from his journey, highlighting achievements like pioneering the first ICO and venture fund. Running for Presidency in 2020, and discussing recent Bitcoin ETF approvals and the future role of cryptocurrencies. Pierce emphasizes the importance of staying informed. He also underscores the impact of AI, machine learning, and ChatGPT in shaping the future.

- Brock's Unique Success: From acting to gaming, Brock Pierce's diverse journey defines his crypto triumph.
- Crypto Trailblazer: Early in virtual currencies, Pierce pioneered ICOs, venture funds, and stablecoins.
- Understanding Crypto Risks: Despite Bitcoin ETF progress, Brock stresses risks and the need for instinctual decisions.
- Keys to Success: Tenacity and curiosity are vital for triumph in the ever-changing crypto world.
- Crypto's Big Role: Cryptocurrencies are set to transform finance and industries in the future.


00:00 Introduction and Background
08:25 Early Life and Acting Career
09:25 Entry into the Gaming Industry
22:05 Transition to Cryptocurrency and Blockchain
30:03 Early Involvement in Bitcoin and Virtual Currencies
37:12 Early Investments and Innovations in Crypto
41:54 Bitcoin ETFs and Regulatory Clarity
48:14 Observations on DeFi and Market Cycles
48:53 Missed Opportunities and Counterparty Risk
51:06 Staying Updated on Blockchain and Cryptocurrency
54:20 Getting Involved in Governance55:02 Tenacity and Curiosity as Key Traits
55:56 The Future of Finance and the Role of Cryptocurrencies
58:51 The Impact of AI and Machine Learning
59:45 The Power of ChatGPT and Superhuman Capabilities
01:00:44 Managing Messages and Investments
01:02:53 Civic Participation and Being the Change
FWIW, when I visit Fidelity's page, it only reports the allocation ratio from December 31, 2023. I don't see the Feb 2024 update captured in that tweet. But the page does include this blurb:
Why invest in this fund?
  • A global multi-asset strategy designed with a neutral mix of approximately 40% equity factors, 59% systematic and actively managed fixed income ETFs and 1% cryptocurrencies.

Not sure why it wouldn't include an allocation to gold.

Edit: I asked them about it via their website's contact form:
I was wondering why your "All-in-One" Conservative ETF Fund does not include any allocation to gold. Is gold not considered a conservative investment?
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Not sure why it wouldn't include an allocation to gold.
Imo it has nothing to do with financial reasons, this is just psychology.
Wall Street's level of despise for the barbarous relic is off the charts.
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... Responding to a question ... his view on crypto ..., Waller reiterated his position from a year ago that ... people buy and hold them hoping someone else will pay more later. ...

That describes every investment opportunity available on Wall Street.
Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rally has been driven by the spectacular introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETF). It may be time to now focus on ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday.

Ether is "probably the only other digital asset likely to get a spot ETF approval by the SEC," the report said.

Bernstein says there is about a 50% chance of ether spot ETF approval by May and near-certain probability of approval in the next 12 months.
"Ethereum with its staking yield dynamics, environmentally friendly design, and institutional utility to build new financial markets, is well positioned for mainstream institutional adoption," analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote.

Ether yield markets would grow in lockstep with the crypto's market cap and could "power unique ETFs, if the staking yields are included in the ETF design," the authors wrote.

The broker notes that institutions don't just want to launch ether spot ETFs, they want to "build more transparent and open tokenized financial markets on the Ethereum network," adding that the "utility is beyond asset gathering."

Bernstein is a big player:

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has outpaced bitcoin's (BTC) rally over the past week, a trend that could continue because the fundamentals for Ethereum's native token appear more favorable than those of the larger crypto, according to Greg Magadini, Amberdata's director of derivatives.
The focus could soon shift to the significant drop in ether supply since Ethereum transitioned to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in September 2022 in an upgrade dubbed The Merge, Magadini said. That contrasts with Bitcoin's halving, which just slows the cryptocurrency's rate of growth.

"Everyone is talking about the Bitcoin halving in April, but that’s nothing compared to the active 'REDUCTION' in ETH supply already occurring since Sept. 2022," Magadini said in a weekly newsletter. "ETH is the next play here! Low ETH/BTC ratio, actively finding a bid, [with ETH's] fundamental supply picture even better than BTC."

Since the Merge, 1,047,643 ETH ($3.05 billion) have been issued and 1,407,200 ETH burned, or taken out of circulation, causing a net supply reduction of 359,557 ETH or 0.209% year-on-year, according to data tracking website Bitcoin's supply increased 1.71% in the same period.



Cryptoverse: Breezy bitcoin reclaims $1 trillion crown​

Feb 20 (Reuters) - Bitcoin is riding high.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has leapt 22% this year to $52,005, pushing it past a market value of $1 trillion mark for the first time since its record heyday of late 2021.

Its resurgence has electrified the broader cryptocurrency market, including ether and other digital coins, which has now exceeded $2 trillion, as per data from CoinGecko.

The sector has been bolstered by the U.S. regulatory approval of several spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), from BlackRock and Fidelity among others, which allow access to the crypto coin vis regular stock exchanges.



BlackRock Is Planning To SHOCK The World - Whitney Webb Bitcoin Prediction​

Whitney Webb is a beating to listen to. She cannot state any thought clearly. I skimmed the transcript of that video and did not see what her supposed prediction was. Lot's of half formed comments and insinuations though. Let me break this down for you:

Digital ID = surveillance
CBDC = control
(decentralized) crypto <> (centralized) CBDC

If you need more context/detail, please see:

The Blackrock ETF would not exist if Federal Courts had not bitch slapped the SEC thanks to GrayScale's decade long fight. Please use some common sense when evaluating conspiracy theory gobbledegook.


Trading volumes of VanEck’s HODL, one of the ten spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds in the U.S. (ETF), surged over 2,200% on Tuesday in a move driven by individual traders.

HODL traded over $400 million in volumes on Tuesday, a 22-fold jump over its daily average of $17 million. The figures came ahead of a planned fee cut on Wednesday, when VanEck will reduce its offering fees from 0.25% to 0.20%, as per a filing.

HODL’s volumes were the third-largest after Grayscale’s GBTC and BlockRock’s IBIT, the usual leaders. The ETF now holds nearly $200 million worth of bitcoin as of Feb.20, data shows.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said on X that the volumes came from 32,000 individual trades instead of one big investor – showing signs of a retail mania.

March 13 - Dencun upgrade

Some more exposition on what the Dencun upgrade means for Ethereum:

To get an understanding of what this upgrade entails, Kitco Crypto reached out to experts in the field, who provided insights into what the Dencun upgrade means for the Ethereum community and why ETH holders see it as a bullish development.

According to Kerel Verwaerde, the Chief Marketing Officer for, “The Dencun upgrade, which is divided into two upgrades – one in the execution and one in the consensus layers – is a continuation of the efforts to make Ethereum more scalable, especially using layer 2s (L2), which paves the way for the continuation of Ethereum being the undisputed king of utility blockchains.”
“The Dencun (EIP-4844) upgrade could reduce those costs by an order of magnitude or more,” Nielsen said. “Imagine if a company like Slack, which spends an estimated $85 million per year on cloud fees, could see those costs reduced 10x to just $8.5 million annually. Those kinds of savings could be transformative and help spur the uptake of decentralized solutions.”

He noted that “Previous Ethereum upgrades tended to solve narrow problems — things like reducing gas price volatility,” but said EIP-4844 “could take Ethereum to the next level by fundamentally improving its scaling and efficiency through vastly lower settlement fees. That doesn't just close gaps – it enhances Ethereum's core capabilities.”

“If EIP-4844 can deliver on its promise of reducing costs by 10x or 100x as hoped, it could ignite a Cambrian explosion of activity and use cases across Layer 2 networks,” Nielsen concluded. “The future is bright if we can unleash the pent-up potential of the burgeoning L2 ecosystem.”


What's going on with Uniswap (UNI) this morning? It's up over 50% in the last 24 hours...

I guess this is the driver?
Uniswap, a decentralized crypto exchange, launched on Wednesday its version 2 (v2) on six chains: Arbitrum, Polygon, Optimism, Base, Binance Smart Chain and Avalanche. Uniswap’s v2 pools allow users to swap assets in a single-user interface and minimize the need for upfront decision-making or active liquid pooling activities.

On-chain metrics support UNI’s weekly gains, making it likely that price revisits its 2024 peak.

Last week, Uniswap proposed rewarding UNI token holders who stake and delegate their staked tokens with a portion of the DEX's fee earnings. UNI is the native governance token of Uniswap. The crypto community cheered the proposal, sending UNI higher by 60%. ...

Now if they would only make it easy to figure out how to stake Uniswap. I looked into it before and could not figure it out.
Bitcoin approaching 57k. Up over 10% in the last 24 hours.
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