Crypto trading/market thread

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Nasdaq-listed software firm MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), has acquired another 11,931 BTC for $786 million, according to a Thursday morning press release.

Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company as of the end of April held 214,400 bitcoins. This latest acquisition brings the company's total holdings to 226,331 tokens worth just under $15 billion at bitcoin's current price of roughly $66,000. The company's bitcoins were purchased at an average price of $36,798 each, or roughly $8.33 billion.


All this supposed whale buying and selling (including ETF flows) and the price of BTC really doesn't seem to be moving that much. :dontknow:
Bearish sentiment became more pronounced in the crypto market early Monday after defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which is supposed to return over 140,000 BTC to victims of a 2014 hack, said it will begin repayments next month. Bitcoin slipped to $60,723, registering an over 5% loss on a 24-hour basis at one point. Ether and the broader market followed suit, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also falling more than 5%. Broadly speaking, bitcoin's recent retreat from above $70,000 has taken the shape of a double top bearish reversal pattern. However, spot and futures volumes in bitcoin and ether markets on centralized exchanges have been considerably softer than record highs in March, according to FalconX. That's a sign of decreased investor participation or conviction in selling action, often a characteristic of a "bear trap."

Catching a falling knife is risky, but some crypto options traders look to be doing just that, betting on a bullish outcome in a falling market.

Ethereum's native token ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped over 5% to $3,350 in one week, according to CoinDesk data. The decline follows speculation that ether ETFs could begin trading in the U.S. next month and is consistent with weakness in market leader bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies.

Still, according to Amberdata data, some traders have been buying large numbers of ether September expiry call options at the strike level of $4,000 on crypto exchange Deribit.
"Looking at the block flows this week, we see a ton of buying activity for the September $4,000 calls," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said, adding it is a sign of traders betting that "if ETH gets above $4k we likely test and breakout new all-time-highs."


Hong Kong regulator directs Worldcoin to cease operations citing privacy concerns​

May 22 (Reuters) - A Hong Kong regulator on Wednesday served an enforcement notice to Worldcoin Foundation directing it to cease all operations of the cryptocurrency project in the country, citing risk to privacy and personal data.

The Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data (PCPD) added that Worldcoin should stop scanning and collecting iris and face images of the public using its devices. It also dubbed the data collection as "unnecessary and excessive".

Worldcoin encourages people to have their irises scanned by its "orb" devices, in exchange for a digital ID and free cryptocurrency. More than 5 million people in over 160 countries have signed up to have their irises scanned, according to its website. But the project has drawn criticism over the collection, storage and use of personal data.


More on worldcoin.

On Monday, financial services firm Nomura Holdings and its digital asset arm Laser Digital released the results of a survey titled the “Institutional Investor Survey on Digital Asset Investment Trends,” which found that more than half of institutional investors surveyed in Japan expressed intentions to invest in the crypto sector in the next three years.

Floodgates opening wider?

In a significant expansion of its cryptocurrency offerings, Vaneck has announced the filing of the first U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Solana. This move marks a strategic enhancement of Vaneck’s digital asset products, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research.
Filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 27, 2024, the Vaneck Solana Trust will operate under the ticker symbol TBD, with its shares expected to be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange. This initiative follows the increasing demand for digital asset investment products that offer both security and regulatory compliance.

Protocol Village: Crypto Losses From Hacks, Rug Pulls Doubled to $572M in Q2: Immunefi Report

The latest in blockchain tech upgrades, funding announcements and deals. For the period of June 27-July 3.

June 27: Immunefi, an on-chain crowd-sourced security platform, released its "Crypto Losses in Q2 2024 report," showing a loss of $572 million to hacks and rug pulls in Q2 2024, a 112% increase compared to the same period in 2023. According to the team: "This brings the total losses to over $920 million year-to-date, with May 2024 witnessing the highest monthly losses at $358 million. CeFi was the main target of successful exploits at 70%, compared to DeFi at 30% of the total losses in Q2."

I found this to be an interesting read regarding crypto ETF possibilities:


US Treasury finalizes new crypto tax reporting rules​

June 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department finalized a rule on Friday requiring cryptocurrency brokers, including exchanges and payment processors, to report new information on users' sales and exchanges of digital assets to the Internal Revenue Service.

The new requirements aim to crack down on crypto users who may be failing to pay their taxes, and stem from the $1 trillion bipartisan 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. At the time the bill was passed, it was estimated that the new rules could bring in close to $28 billion over a decade.

The rule, which would be phased in starting next year for the 2026 tax filing season, align the tax requirements for cryptocurrencies with existing tax reporting requirements for brokers for other financial instruments, such as bonds and stocks, Treasury said.


Podcast here, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab. 1 hr 8 mins long. Start at the 3 min mark. Lots of different topics discussed here.

The Bitcoin Standard w/ Rep. Thomas Massie​

Jul 1, 2024 The Bitcoin Standard Podcast

US Congressman Thomas Massie has read The Bitcoin Standard and enjoyed it so much he tabled legislation to end the Fed! He joins Saifedean to discuss The Bitcoin Standard, Austrian economics, American politics, AIPAC and much more!

I wish we had more independent thinkers in the swamp like Rep. Massie.

Russian regulator encourages use of crypto to counter sanctions​

ST.PETERSBURG, July 3 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank told businesses they should use "multiple choice solutions" including cryptocurrencies and other digital assets to facilitate payments with foreign partners to counter Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine conflict.

Russia’s booming trade with China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and other countries which have not imposed sanctions has suffered major setbacks in the last few weeks.


What a journey it's been for crypto. Wasn't that long ago that Russia was discouraging crypto adoption/use in the country. Now they are promoting it to achieve financial liberty. Of course, if they were really serious about it, they would elevate it to legal tender status within the country. That would be wild.
Multicoin Pledges up to $1M for Pro-Crypto Senate Candidates

Multicoin Capital, one of the largest U.S. investment firms focused on cryptocurrency, is pledging up to $1 million to support Senate candidates with favorable views of the industry.

The investment manager plans to financially support four Republican candidates – Sam Brown in Nevada, David McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Tim Sheehy in Montana – through donations to the conservative super political action committee (PAC) Sentinel Action Fund.



Bitcoin tanks as Mt. Gox begins repaying creditors: CNBC Crypto World​

Jul 5, 2024 #CNBC #CNBCTV

CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what’s ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today’s show, Damien Kieran, Worldcoin builder Tools for Humanity’s new chief privacy officer, discusses how he plans to work with regulators around the world to address privacy concerns tied to Worldcoin’s iris scanning technology.


00:00 - CNBC Crypto World, July 5, 2024
0:22 - Bitcoin and ether tank
1:48 - Damien Kieran of Tools for Humanity
Crypto Crash Pushes Fear & Greed Index to Lowest Since Bitcoin Traded at $17K in Early 2023

The widely-followed sentiment metric hit extreme greed levels earlier in March near the local top of the crypto market, but now is pushing its limits in the opposite direction.

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a popular contrarian indicator to buy and sell, but there could be further downside for bitcoin's price, analysts warned.
  • Seized BTC sales by the German and U.S. governments, and sell pressure from Mt. Gox user refunds create multibillion-dollar overhang, SynFutures' Rachel Lin said.
  • Bitcoin could sink to $50,000 during historically weak months ahead but a Fed interest rate cut in September could ignite a rally, 10x Research's Markus Thieled said.
Crypto investor sentiment cratered to the most negative levels since the tail-end of the 2022 crypto winter as bitcoin's (BTC) plunge below $54,000 pulled down digital asset markets.

The widely-followed Crypto Fear & Greed Index, created by data source, shows market enthusiasm towards bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies, with 0 being extreme fear and 100 translating to extreme greed.

The gauge dropped to 29 on Friday, its deepest dive into the fear zone since early January 2023 when bitcoin was trading around $17,000 after 2022's crushing bear market.



Inside Wyoming's Bitcoin Mining Frontier: A Tour with Mike​

Jul 6, 2024


Trump's Official Republican Platform Pledges to Halt Crypto 'Crackdown'​

Though not listing it as a top priority, the Republican National Committee adopted a platform that aims to boost digital assets innovation.

Updated Jul 8, 2024 at 4:21 p.m. EDT

  • The Republican National Committee's new policy platform includes an initiative to champion crypto.
  • Former President Donald Trump's party is also committed to opposing a central bank digital currency.
Former President Donald Trump's Republican Party has officially adopted a platform that would seek to support cryptocurrency innovation, according to the document released Monday by the Republican National Committee.




It's Not Germany Selling Bitcoin. It's One of Its States and It Has No Choice.​

  • It's not the country of Germany that's been selling millions of dollars worth of bitcoin, but a small German state called Saxony.
  • The state confiscated almost 50,000 BTC in January and has been selling its holdings as per standard practice for assets seized during criminal investigations, an expert said.
For days, news outlets worldwide have reported on Germany's sale of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin {{BTC}} and the ensuing distress in markets and major sell-offs in crypto prices.



Bitcoin soars to two-week high after Trump attack​

SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Bitcoin surged to a two-week high on Monday after the attempted assassination of U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump raised the odds of the former president, who has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency, winning the upcoming election.

Trump said he was shot in the ear during the attack at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. His campaign said he was doing well. Some investors said the attack bolstered his chances of winning back the White House and trades betting on his victory are expected to increase this week.



Trump Campaign Reaps $3 Million in Crypto, From Bitcoin to Dogecoin​

Ahandful of crypto bigwigs helped push former President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency fundraising to $3 million in the second quarter, a sliver of the campaign’s overall haul.

Trump, who received the Republican Party’s official nomination Monday, has increasingly supported bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in recent months. In May, he became the first major presidential candidate to accept crypto donations. Data released late Monday provided the first glimpse of the success of that move.

Through the end of June, Trump’s supporters donated $1.8 million of bitcoin and $900,000 of ether, the two largest cryptocurrencies. Most of those tokens were immediately sold for dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies. Trump also got $300 worth of dogecoin, a token named for a Shiba Inu-turned-internet-meme with allegedly bad spelling habits, and $100 of shiba inu coin, a separate token that pays homage to the meme.

The crypto donations, recorded in federal campaign filings by two of the Trump campaign’s joint fundraising committees, are just a slice of the $331 million the campaign said it raised during the second quarter across the former president’s fundraising arms. The two PACs—the Trump 47 Committee and the Trump National Committee JFC—transfer their receipts to entities including the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee, and state GOP committees.


Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick

With a millennial running mate, the former president now has a 72% chance of retaking the White House, traders on the crypto-based prediction market are signaling.

Donald Trump's odds of retaking the White House in November hit another all-time high after he picked Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket are signaling.

"Yes" shares for Trump in Polymarket's presidential election contract were trading at 72 cents mid-morning Tuesday New York time, indicating that the market believes the Republican nominee has a 72% chance of victory. Each share pays out $1 if the associated prediction comes true and bupkis if not. Bets are programmed into a smart contract, or software application, on the Polygon blockchain and denominated in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.



What are the challenges of adopting crypto as a legal tender?​

Cryptocurrencies had an interesting transformation over the years, as they went from being an obscure term to a worldwide phenomenon. Bitcoin is the first digital currency ever created, which has taken the world by storm, by adding a decentralized platform into the world and offering people all the details on how to buy Bitcoin. But can Bitcoin become a legal tender?



Russia weighs risk of embracing crypto for international payments​

MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - Russia should accelerate the creation of infrastructure for payments in cryptocurrencies but carefully weigh the associated risks, its money laundering watchdog said on Wednesday, ahead of a parliamentary vote on digital assets legislation.

Russia has faced significant delays in international transactions with major trading partners such as China, India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, after local banks, under pressure from Western regulators, have become more cautious.


Polymarket Bettors Put Nearly $80M on Biden's Democratic Chances

Market data shows Polymarket bettors called Biden's drop out hours before it was announced.

  • Nearly $80 million was wagered on Polymarket in various contracts about Joe Biden's political future.
  • $51.5 million was at stake on a question regarding Biden's leadership of the Democrats, while $27.5 million was bet on variations of the question as to if he'd drop out of the race.
Nearly $80 million was in play across six bets related to President Joe Biden's status as the Democrat's nominee, according to Polymarket data, excluding specific bets related to the presidency.



Bitcoin Traders Brace for 'Fat Tails' as Focus Shifts to Trump's Nashville Bitcoin Conference Speech​

Speculation is high that Trump will announce a bigger role for BTC in the financial system, triggering a parabolic rise in the cryptocurrency's price, one observer said.

Updated Jul 22, 2024 at 3:42 a.m. EDT

  • BTC's options market shows increased expectations for fat tails or outliers impacting returns.
  • Speculation is rife that Trump may announce a bigger role for BTC in the U.S. financial system, according to one observer.

Donald Trump's impending appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference has traders preparing for fat-tails – extreme or unusual price movements in the leading cryptocurrency.

Activity in the options market listed on Deribit and tracked by Amberdata shows a noticeable increase in the "butterfly index," which measures the volatility of the out-of-the-money (OTM) 25-delta (∆25) call and put options listed at a distance from the going market price of bitcoin {{BTC}] relative to at-the-money (ATM) options closer the spot price. The spike in the index indicates expectations for more extreme market movements.


I guess you can't discount the possibility, but this seems like buy the rumor, sell the news pumper hype. Trump will likely just affirm the same rhetoric that he's already said before.

Ferrari extends cryptocurrency payment system to Europe after US launch​

MILAN, July 24 (Reuters) - Ferrari (RACE.MI), opens new tab said on Wednesday it would extend its scheme to accept payments in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars to its European dealers network from the end of this month, after starting in the United States last year.

The Italian company will also extend the scheme by the end of 2024 to other dealers of its international network, in countries where cryptocurrencies are legally accepted, it said in a statement.


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