Crypto trading/market thread

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Ethereum has added roughly $100B in market cap over the last 24 hours or so while the price has run from ~$3,000 to ~$3,770 as of the moment. I wonder if it breeches $4,000 today... :popcorn:

CME Looks to Take On Binance and Coinbase, Could Launch Spot Bitcoin Trading: Report​


Some punches are getting thrown....
A potential West Coast/East Coast feud is brewing in financial markets as two major exchanges creep into each other's carved-out lanes.

Last week, Coinbase Derivatives, the leading U.S. cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, announced it would launch retail-sized futures contracts for oil and gold on June 3.
Coinbase’s futures announcement came on the same day the Financial Times reported that CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, is in talks to launch a spot Bitcoin market, competing head-to-head with Coinbase.

The price of ether (ETH) has a 20% chance of rallying to $5,000 by the end of next month, data from the decentralized options marketplace Lyra indicates. The price peaked at $4,692 during the previous bull market, according to CoinDesk data.
"Lyra options markets are implying a ~20% chance of ETH reaching $5,000 by June 28," Nick Forster, Lyra's founder and a former Wall Street options trader, told CoinDesk in an email. "There is a 20% chance of ETH moving above $5,500 by July 26, as traders have increased positioning post the ETF speculation."


Hong Kong regulator directs Worldcoin to cease operations citing privacy concerns​

May 22 (Reuters) - A Hong Kong regulator on Wednesday served an enforcement notice to Worldcoin Foundation directing it to cease all operations of the cryptocurrency project in the country, citing risk to privacy and personal data.

The Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data (PCPD) added that Worldcoin should stop scanning and collecting iris and face images of the public using its devices. It also dubbed the data collection as "unnecessary and excessive".

Worldcoin encourages people to have their irises scanned by its "orb" devices, in exchange for a digital ID and free cryptocurrency. More than 5 million people in over 160 countries have signed up to have their irises scanned, according to its website. But the project has drawn criticism over the collection, storage and use of personal data.


Glad to see some high profile pushback on Worldcoin. It's sad to see how many people gave away their biometric data to get marked by the beast.

Huge. This has ramifications far beyond just the trading of Ethereum. It solidifies that ETH is not a security and the SEC can fuck right off in their crusade. I'm not sure if the ETF applicants are ready to go live tomorrow like they BTC applicants did the day after approval, but I expect they will go live by Monday at the latest. There is no Grayscale trust for ETH that will have massive selling volume to counter the expected inflows once they go live. Ethereum is going to move.
Bitcoin has dominated the news cycle lately, from the recent halving to the 30-plus banks starting their own Bitcoin ETF.

Crypto miners have also made the news, buying up local real estate and old industrial buildings across America, from Texas to New York, transforming old forgotten real estate into huge mining super-centers.

This includes some of the biggest names in the sector.

A handful of C-level executives from some of the industry’s biggest names in crypto mining have gotten together to form a new company that we believe could single-handedly change the way cryptocurrency is minted forever


Trump has definitely listened to Vivek Ramaswathy on the crypto issue. It's galvanizing the rest of the GOP and breaking down Warren's "anti-crypto army" within the Dem party. It was always a dumb hill to die on.
Two reports:
Coinbase previously claimed that 52 million Americans own cryptocurrency, which indicates an adoption rate of 15.5% based on the Census estimate of 336.5 million Americans. However, according to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve, only 7% of respondents bought or held crypto in 2023, and only 1% actually used it to buy anything or make a payment.

According to a new report from digital currency payment provider Triple-A, the global user base for digital currencies climbed to 562 million people in 2024, up from 420 million in 2023. That represents an increase of 33.8% – and is equivalent to 6.8% of the global population.

If we imagine a world where crypto adoption/use normalizes, what percent of the USA or global population would expect is a reasonable upper threshold? I'm thinking something like 50% in the USA and maybe 30% globally. There is a huge gap between where we are and where we are headed IMO.
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds are expected to grow to a $450 billion market based on our crypto price forecasts, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Tuesday.

“This would signify flows exceeding $100 billion over the next 18-24 months into crypto ETFs,” analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote.

The broker predicts a bitcoin cycle high of $150,000 in 2025, and has a year-end price target of $90,000.

BlackRock filed an amended S-1 form for its proposed spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) that revealed more information about the product that was recently approved for listing in the U.S.
Subject to regulatory approval, assets held in the ETF can be redeemed for cash or even ether. The iShares Ethereum Trust ether ETF will list and trade under “ETHA.”

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas called the updated S-1 a “good sign,” adding that a launch by the end of June was “a legit possibility.”

End of June, eh?

The bitcoin financial services firm Unchained recently announced a partnership with the University of Texas (UATX) to establish the first long-term endowment fund held in bitcoin (BTC). The goal of this collaboration is to raise $5 million, which will be invested in BTC for at least five years.

In a statement, Unchained characterized this initiative as an important step in the quest to integrate bitcoin into higher education. ...

“Until recently, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)—under chairman Gary Gensler—has led dozens of enforcement actions against crypto firms for violating securities laws, and refused to heed industry calls for tailored rulemaking.

Earlier this month, political winds turned in crypto’s direction after the House of Representatives passed legislation to provide legal clarity around crypto assets with strong bipartisan support.”


What a great twist making it sound like the U.K. came up with this to make sleepy Americans pay attention.

👉🏻 Strong

👉🏻 Strong Bipartisan


The approval of spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has raised expectations for substantial inflows. However, JPMorgan has cautioned that these hopes may be overly optimistic compared to spot bitcoin ETFs. The investment bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and global market strategist, explained in a report on Thursday:
The initial market reaction to the launch of spot ethereum ETFs is likely to be negative … We believe the demand for spot ethereum ETFs would be a fraction of that seen for spot bitcoin.
The investment bank’s analysts expect net inflows of $1 billion to $3 billion for 2024 if spot ethereum ETFs launch by the end of the year. They noted that inflows could potentially triple if staking is included in the ETFs, contingent upon congressional action to classify ether as a commodity. However, they cautioned that similar to Grayscale’s bitcoin trust, Ethereum ETFs might experience outflows once trading begins. They wrote:
We expect around $1 billion to exit the Grayscale Ethereum Trust as speculative investors, who previously bought the ETHE in anticipation of it being converted to ETF, are likely to take profit, thus exerting downward pressure on ethereum prices soon after the launch of spot ethereum ETFs.

I was not aware that Grayscale did indeed have an Ethereum Trust that was to be converted just like their BTC trust. I wonder how many investors might sell the ETF and then buy ETH in order to natively stake it (mitigating the expected selling pressure).
I'm not sure if this guy is rooted in reality or not...
... former billionaire and All In podcast "bestie" Chamath Palihapitiya has predicted bitcoin could "completely replace gold" as countries adopt it--potentially pushing it's market capitalization toward gold's $15.7 trillion.

"There's an increasing body of countries that will become dual-currency," Palihapitiya, who claimed to have bought $1 million worth of bitcoin in 2010 when it was trading at around $80, said on the podcast he hosts along with fellow investors David Friedburg, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks.

"They will look at their local currency and they will look at bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. The first for when they're transacting on a daily basis for goods and services and the second when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, they'll buy bitcoin."

Other than possibly Argentina, which has recently sent representatives to El Salvador to talk about their Bitcoin adoption, I am not aware of any other country currently making serious efforts in this regards. There are a few countries that have some minority factions interested in making Bitcoin legal tender, but appear to be far from a consensus on actually doing anything.

Deutsche Bank ties up with Bitpanda in 'cautious' crypto shift​

AMSTERDAM, June 4 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), opens new tab will work with Bitpanda to process customer deposits and withdrawals for the Austrian crypto broker, the companies told Reuters.

The crypto industry has previously struggled to find banking partners, particularly after the 2023 collapse of Silvergate Capital Corp, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which had a high concentration of crypto-related clients.

But in the latest sign of the crypto world moving closer to mainstream finance, Deutsche will provide Bitpanda users in Germany with local bank account numbers.


Thailand has approved launching its first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), joining a growing list of countries embracing regulated Bitcoin investment vehicles.

The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) endorsed asset manager One Asset Management (ONEAM) to introduce a Bitcoin ETF, according to the Bangkok Post. The ONE Bitcoin ETF Fund is scheduled to be distributed between May 31 and June 6

Under the Thai SEC's rules, the ETF will be limited to wealthy and institutional investors. This follows the regulator amending local guidelines in April to permit restricted Bitcoin ETFs targeting professional investors.
Thailand follows the trail blazed by the US SEC, which approved several Bitcoin ETFs this January, sparking surging interest. Other jurisdictions, such as Hong Kong, Australia, and the UK, have since followed suit in issuing spot Bitcoin ETFs or similar products.

Interview from Consensus 2024. A bit on the political side so take it fwiw and dyodd.

CBDC Is the ‘Death Star,’ U.S. Election Is A Choice Between ‘Freedom’ or ‘Tyranny’ – Bernie Moreno​

Jun 5, 2024 #election2024 #crypto #CBDC

Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Bernie Moreno, the Trump-endorsed Republican Senate nominee from Ohio, who says Democrats will end up "crushing" the crypto industry if elected despite the current pivot in messaging. Moreno speaks to Kitco News on the sidelines of Consensus 2024. He also breaks down his own political platform while addressing the dangers of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), the U.S. dollar’s reserve status, the role of Bitcoin, and more. This interview was recorded on May 30, 2024.


00:00 Introduction: Bernie Moreno
00:51 Crypto & Blockchain
02:01 Election Year Politics
03:37 Government Control vs. Innovation
08:17 Transparency
15:46 Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
23:18 Economic Policies
29:28 Election Integrity

Robinhood bets big on crypto with $200 million deal for Bitstamp​

June 6 (Reuters) - Trading platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O), opens new tab said on Thursday it has agreed to buy cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp for around $200 million in cash, speeding up a broader push into digital assets with its biggest ever deal.

The 11-year old trading app, popular among retail traders, has been looking to expand its product offerings to mature into a full-fledged financial services provider.

The acquisition of Bitstamp, which was founded in 2011 and holds 50 active licenses and registrations globally, puts Robinhood in direct competition with industry giants such as Binance and Coinbase (COIN.O), opens new tab.


Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are increasingly positioning for the asset to hit fresh record prices this month, market data suggests.

"Our desk saw strong bullish follow-through with significant call buying for June expiries, indicating positioning in the options market for a decisive break of 74,000 all-time-highs this month," digital asset hedge fund QCP said in a Wednesday market update.
Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives principal trading firm Arbelos Markets, noted "very concentrated call buying" on Tuesday with about 1100 contracts purchased of June 28 expiration call spreads in $74,000-$80,000 strikes, representing around $80 million notional demand.

Stage two of the Bitcoin (and consequently overall crypto market) rally for 2024 about to begin...

And now we are starting to see Ethereum ETF crystal ball hype like we saw with the BTC ETFs...

VanEck has a new price target for ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum protocol: $22,000 by 2030.

That would be a massive jump from current levels of around $3,850.

The global investment firm, which has applied to list an ether exchange-traded fund (ETF), and forecasts that ether ETFs could be larger than their bitcoin counterpart, wrote in a recent report that ether will soar to that lofty level because of Ethereum’s disruptive power and cashflow generated for token holders.

Ethereum is disrupting the finance, banking, payments, marketing, advertising, social, gaming, infrastructure and artificial intelligence sectors, VanEck wrote. The prediction is also based on the expectation ether ETFs will get approved and the company’s ”read of on-chain data.”


Bitcoin in the red to end the week after better-than-expected May jobs report: CNBC Crypto World​

Jun 7, 2024 #CNBC #CNBCTV

CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Sun Raghupathi, the co-founder of the DeFi protocol Veda, weighs in on recent developments related to spot bitcoin and ether ETFs in the U.S. and regions around the world.


00:00 - CNBC Crypto World, June 7, 2024
0:32 - Bitcoin drops
1:10 - The headlines
3:39 - Veda’s Sun Raghupathi
Crypto investment products took on nearly $2 billion in inflows last week to help extend a five-week run to over $4.3 billion, asset manager CoinShares said in a Monday report.

Trading volumes in exchange-traded products (ETPs) rose to $12.8 billion for the week, up 55% from the week prior. Bitcoin led investment activity at over $1.97 billion inflows for the week, while ether (ETH) saw its best week of inflows since March at nearly $70 million.
“A price target of $10,000 in 2024 is now a reasonable target especially when other supportive factors, like ETH now being deflationary, are taken into consideration,” Hindi added.

$10k ETH by end of year? That sounds optimistic to me.
Robinhood’s deal with Bitstamp good sign for crypto industry, advisory firm says: CNBC Crypto World

Jun 10, 2024 #CNBC #CNBCTV

CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what’s ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today’s show, Raphael Zagury, chief investment officer and head of research at Swan Bitcoin, explains how the Federal Reserve and the upcoming U.S. presidential election factor into his crypto price outlook.



00:00 - CNBC Crypto World, June 10, 2024
0:26 - Bitcoin rises
1:02 - The headlines
3:34 - Swan’s Raphael Zagury
Bitcoin getting smacked today... It's had like 5 attempts to get through 72,000. What's going on here? People finally giving up that the halving is not an automatic huge run? Or is the manipulation via ETF's finally starting to get control of the market.
I have read a lot of speculations about potential malfeasance with Coinbase hypothecating BTC for the ETFs, but I have yet to see any substance to lend the theory any credibility.

What is measurable/auditable is that BTC ETF flows turned negative yesterday for the first time in 19 days:
A record 19-day streak of net inflows in U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended Monday as the products saw a combined $65 million in net outflows, preliminary data shows.
Such outflows came amid a market-wide slide in the cryptocurrency market and losses in broader stock markets. Traders on Monday warned of a volatile week ahead of a week as investors await a U.S. CPI reading on Wednesday and U.S. treasury secretary Janet Yellen’s speech scheduled on Friday – which can cause a reaction in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The Fed’s monetary policy is also to be decided at a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting today, which may further add to market uncertainty based on comments.

Also, prior to Monday's outflows:
Hedge funds and commodity traders are buying spot bitcoin ETFs while selling CME futures, or basis trading, aiming to profit from the futures market premium relative to spot prices, according to BitMEX Research.

I don't really watch the BTC futures market, so I'm not privy to what's happening there.
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