Fed will overshoot rate increases

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I will be surprised if it happens (even though the broader market is expecting/hoping for it).
 
Nothing surprises me.

And a point rise isn't going to help much. It's like putting a Band-Aid on a compound fracture.

And the Trump operatives and Trump controllers are ready to blast whatever's done as "not enough." Nope, NEGATIVE interest, FREE MONEY, is what Bissent and Lutnik and all the other perverts and crypto-Fascists within, want.
 
Since posting that, I was listening to a Ray-Dalio AI clone talking about the Fuddrel Debt.

How do I know it was an AI clone? The pronunciation mistakes - it confused "read" (redd) with "read" (reed). And other goofs that even someone reading a script would never make.

Anyway...the AI did give me a few things to think about...that ZIRP or near-zero, COUPLED to deliberate inflation, which is what we have, is textbook Financial Repression.

Savers get 4 percent, say, on Treasury bonds, or 2 percent on bank savings.

Inflation rages at, STATED, 3 percent, but DEMONSTRATED, 9-11 percent.

The effective interest rate is NEGATIVE.

The debt as a percentage of the economy, is reduced. Savings of the thrifty, are destroyed.

The future is black for them. SoshScurit-ee for you 'n meee...

And the worst of it is, they have gotten away with it, in the 1960s. They are getting away with it, now. Which means they'll go in harder, deeper, in the future...until we're all destitute, except for the politically connected.

That's otherwise known as Real Rates... and yes, Negative real rates are Extremely bullish for real money.
 
Odds are they do what the market wants which is a 0.25% increase. However, if they surprise I think they could raise 0.5% and attempt to slam metals again.
 
+.25

Not what I wanted but may help.

Fed hikes interest rates for first time in three years in unanimous decision​

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years on Wednesday and sees raising rates one more time this year to arrest sticky inflation as renewed tensions in the Middle East drive oil prices higher and raise concerns about broadening price pressures.

The central bank voted in a unanimous decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to the range of 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.

More:

 
+.25

Not what I wanted but may help.
What you seem to want, is anything that might cause harm to, or hamper the current administration.

Am I right?


Where they should have been raising rates was through most of Obama's term.

Those near zero rates for so long was the fuel for the current problems in Bonds we are starting to see today.

Ie: there are far too many low interest long bonds still out there, and the higher rates go today, the more danger there is of those Bonds being sold and driving prices down.

The gov can't afford to buy all of them back.

The gov also cannot afford higher rates.
....and if gov defaults, we're talking great depression on steroids. Ie: you, I and everyone else, regardless of political inclination will get wrecked.

Is that what we really want?

To cheer for it simply because the other teams guy is currently the one with their hands on the levers and buttons?





During Biden's 9+% inflation is another time they didn't raise rates enough. If there were ever a time for the Volcker approach, that was it.
.....but Powell was too scared to do so. Didn't want the Bidet's economy to look too bad, so they raised rates too slowly in order to protect it.
 
Dead wrong. What I want is what will help me. Think high rare savings, CDs, T bills, etc.
Ok, but to have that requires a gov that can afford to pay it's bills.

Asking for a whole point increase is like saying you don't want the gov to be able to pay it's bills.
 
whole point increase

Let's make it 2 or 3 full points. Really make me happy.

By Friday I should see an increase in CD rates around here along with an increase in certain accounts at the beginning of next month. Depending on what you can play with, an increase could be a nice piece of change.

gov to be able to pay it's bills.

What about me paying my bills.

The verse in 1 Timothy 5:8 states: “Anyone who does not provide for their relatives, and especially for their own household, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever” Bible Hub. This is not merely a moral recommendation but a direct teaching of the Apostle Paul, emphasizing that caring for one’s family is a core expression of genuine faith.
 
We are effed. They never do just ONE rate hike. Be prepared for 2008 all over again, but triggered by a debt crisis.

Trump is done. I am ready for China to takeover. What a mess.
 
President Donald Trump demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates to 1% “or less,” hours after the central bank announced its first rate hike since 2023.

 
We are effed. They never do just ONE rate hike. Be prepared for 2008 all over again, but triggered by a debt crisis.

Trump is done. I am ready for China to takeover. What a mess.
China would be far from the worst outcome. They'd be bloodily repressive, but they are not insane.

As opposed to Euro-American gynocrat leadership of the moment.
 
Let's make it 2 or 3 full points. Really make me happy.

By Friday I should see an increase in CD rates around here along with an increase in certain accounts at the beginning of next month. Depending on what you can play with, an increase could be a nice piece of change.



What about me paying my bills.

The verse in 1 Timothy 5:8 states: “Anyone who does not provide for their relatives, and especially for their own household, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever” Bible Hub. This is not merely a moral recommendation but a direct teaching of the Apostle Paul, emphasizing that caring for one’s family is a core expression of genuine faith.
To go a few paragraphs down, there:

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

And that's what this is about, is it not? Create inflation to shortchange the lenders/buyers-of-government-bonds. Keep rates artificially low, lower than even the very rate of price increases, so as to goose the stawk market and add to wealth. To make money WITH money, by manipulating the nation's currency.

And this money is coming from a Stealth Tax from the thrifty citizens who saved for the future. PURE EVIL...
 
Went to the bank to talk about CD rates, my options were 5 month 2.5% and 12 month 2.7%...cashed the CD'S in for the money maket rate of .7% and said I'd check rates tomorrow...at this point I'd rather buy a nearly new truck cash.
 
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