Fed will overshoot rate increases

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I will be surprised if it happens (even though the broader market is expecting/hoping for it).
 
Nothing surprises me.

And a point rise isn't going to help much. It's like putting a Band-Aid on a compound fracture.

And the Trump operatives and Trump controllers are ready to blast whatever's done as "not enough." Nope, NEGATIVE interest, FREE MONEY, is what Bissent and Lutnik and all the other perverts and crypto-Fascists within, want.
 
Since posting that, I was listening to a Ray-Dalio AI clone talking about the Fuddrel Debt.

How do I know it was an AI clone? The pronunciation mistakes - it confused "read" (redd) with "read" (reed). And other goofs that even someone reading a script would never make.

Anyway...the AI did give me a few things to think about...that ZIRP or near-zero, COUPLED to deliberate inflation, which is what we have, is textbook Financial Repression.

Savers get 4 percent, say, on Treasury bonds, or 2 percent on bank savings.

Inflation rages at, STATED, 3 percent, but DEMONSTRATED, 9-11 percent.

The effective interest rate is NEGATIVE.

The debt as a percentage of the economy, is reduced. Savings of the thrifty, are destroyed.

The future is black for them. SoshScurit-ee for you 'n meee...

And the worst of it is, they have gotten away with it, in the 1960s. They are getting away with it, now. Which means they'll go in harder, deeper, in the future...until we're all destitute, except for the politically connected.

That's otherwise known as Real Rates... and yes, Negative real rates are Extremely bullish for real money.
 
Odds are they do what the market wants which is a 0.25% increase. However, if they surprise I think they could raise 0.5% and attempt to slam metals again.
 
+.25

Not what I wanted but may help.

Fed hikes interest rates for first time in three years in unanimous decision​

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years on Wednesday and sees raising rates one more time this year to arrest sticky inflation as renewed tensions in the Middle East drive oil prices higher and raise concerns about broadening price pressures.

The central bank voted in a unanimous decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to the range of 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.

More:

 
+.25

Not what I wanted but may help.
What you seem to want, is anything that might cause harm to, or hamper the current administration.

Am I right?


Where they should have been raising rates was through most of Obama's term.

Those near zero rates for so long was the fuel for the current problems in Bonds we are starting to see today.

Ie: there are far too many low interest long bonds still out there, and the higher rates go today, the more danger there is of those Bonds being sold and driving prices down.

The gov can't afford to buy all of them back.

The gov also cannot afford higher rates.
....and if gov defaults, we're talking great depression on steroids. Ie: you, I and everyone else, regardless of political inclination will get wrecked.

Is that what we really want?

To cheer for it simply because the other teams guy is currently the one with their hands on the levers and buttons?





During Biden's 9+% inflation is another time they didn't raise rates enough. If there were ever a time for the Volcker approach, that was it.
.....but Powell was too scared to do so. Didn't want the Bidet's economy to look too bad, so they raised rates too slowly in order to protect it.
 
What you seem to want, is anything that might cause harm to, or hamper the current administration.

Am I right?

Dead wrong. What I want is what will help me. Think high rare savings, CDs, T bills, etc.
 
Dead wrong. What I want is what will help me. Think high rare savings, CDs, T bills, etc.
Ok, but to have that requires a gov that can afford to pay it's bills.

Asking for a whole point increase is like saying you don't want the gov to be able to pay it's bills.
 
whole point increase

Let's make it 2 or 3 full points. Really make me happy.

By Friday I should see an increase in CD rates around here along with an increase in certain accounts at the beginning of next month. Depending on what you can play with, an increase could be a nice piece of change.

gov to be able to pay it's bills.

What about me paying my bills.

The verse in 1 Timothy 5:8 states: “Anyone who does not provide for their relatives, and especially for their own household, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever” Bible Hub. This is not merely a moral recommendation but a direct teaching of the Apostle Paul, emphasizing that caring for one’s family is a core expression of genuine faith.
 
We are effed. They never do just ONE rate hike. Be prepared for 2008 all over again, but triggered by a debt crisis.

Trump is done. I am ready for China to takeover. What a mess.
 
President Donald Trump demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates to 1% “or less,” hours after the central bank announced its first rate hike since 2023.

 
Maybe I should rename the thread to "Fed will undershoot rate increases"? lol
 
We are effed. They never do just ONE rate hike. Be prepared for 2008 all over again, but triggered by a debt crisis.

Trump is done. I am ready for China to takeover. What a mess.
China would be far from the worst outcome. They'd be bloodily repressive, but they are not insane.

As opposed to Euro-American gynocrat leadership of the moment.
 
Let's make it 2 or 3 full points. Really make me happy.

By Friday I should see an increase in CD rates around here along with an increase in certain accounts at the beginning of next month. Depending on what you can play with, an increase could be a nice piece of change.



What about me paying my bills.

The verse in 1 Timothy 5:8 states: “Anyone who does not provide for their relatives, and especially for their own household, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever” Bible Hub. This is not merely a moral recommendation but a direct teaching of the Apostle Paul, emphasizing that caring for one’s family is a core expression of genuine faith.
To go a few paragraphs down, there:

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

And that's what this is about, is it not? Create inflation to shortchange the lenders/buyers-of-government-bonds. Keep rates artificially low, lower than even the very rate of price increases, so as to goose the stawk market and add to wealth. To make money WITH money, by manipulating the nation's currency.

And this money is coming from a Stealth Tax from the thrifty citizens who saved for the future. PURE EVIL...
 
Went to the bank to talk about CD rates, my options were 5 month 2.5% and 12 month 2.7%...cashed the CD'S in for the money maket rate of .7% and said I'd check rates tomorrow...at this point I'd rather buy a nearly new truck cash.
 
Went to the bank to talk about CD rates, my options were 5 month 2.5% and 12 month 2.7%...cashed the CD'S in for the money maket rate of .7% and said I'd check rates tomorrow...at this point I'd rather buy a nearly new truck cash.

I'd look into credit unions. Pretty sure rates will rise in a day or two.

Around here there are rates in the 3.50 - 4.25 range. Believe they will go higher - they do want your money.

jm2c

Edit to add:

Lotta resources on line for bank & cd rates. I play around with then once in a while.

Here's two.........

Best CD rates of September 2026 (Up to 4.50%) - Bankrate​


 
What about me paying my bills.
You really think everything will just keep going as normal for you, when the time comes that the gov can't pay it's bills?

That includes anything owed to you.

I hope you're ready for your street to turn into Kensington Avenue.
 
I hope you're ready for your street to turn into Kensington Avenue.
It won't stay that way.

With the government not able to CTRL+P its way into Free Money...the Fentanyl-Stomp-ing zombies on Kensington (and other drug-use areas, nationwide) are just gonna be left to revert to compost.
 
That's how the first wave will die.

MOW THEM DOWN.

That's WHY the Second Amendment.
Problem is, no one has enough ammo for all of 'em.

If it ever gets to mad max time, it won't be fun for anyone.

If it can be avoided, I'd prefer that.

More than half the population relies on gov for a large portion of their monthly funds.



Edited to add: I realize at some point it'll be inevitable, but I'm in no hurry to rush it.
 
Only a few, the first wave, need to go down.

Anyway...zombies doing the fen-fen stomp, aren't aggressive housebreakers. Their primary crime is, shitting on public sidewalks.

Let them die - they will, the way St. George of Floyd, (actually) died. Of heart failure or malnutrition or hypothermia.
 
Only a few, the first wave, need to go down.

Anyway...zombies doing the fen-fen stomp, aren't aggressive housebreakers. Their primary crime is, shitting on public sidewalks.

Let them die - they will, the way St. George of Floyd, (actually) died. Of heart failure or malnutrition or hypothermia.
My Kensington Avenue comment to Search wasn't inferring the fentanyl zombies would invade his neighborhood.

I was just meaning it would turn into a shit hole in general.
.....along with all of our streets.
 
^^^
There's an urban videographer...does a channel, "Mean Streets of Philadelphia" - or, might be, "Kensington." I'm not curious enough to look it up.

But he just videos the sidewalks during the day, driving around...the rot isn't a couple of blocks, it's all over.

I'm not from Philly. But I was there for a month, new-hire school with Conrail. On off time, I went down to see Independence Hall and other sites. I saw a lot of poverty but nothing like what he shows, and in the same places.

And I wasn't just in the touristy places. I tried to get up close and personal with the derelict liner SS United States, tied up at a cargo wharf for decades. Like I said, I saw a fair amount of rot, but not this barbarism on the sidewalks.
 
I dunno for sure, as I've never been to Philadelphia. We'd have to ask @searcher if his street is anything close to Kensington Avenue.

I'm kinda thinkin' it's not though.

I'm in the NE suburbs. Totally out of the city. Do go into some parts of the city to shop and once in a while go to a bar (don't do alcohol - do 00 beers, soda and fruit juice ) because I enjoy being around peeps.

Many moons ago I went a boxing gym in Kensington, no more. Bad place. Was out and about yesterday, talked to some peeps who told me the zombies were kinda moving up the ave (Frankford Ave.) Better for me to stay away from bad areas.
 
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