Fed will overshoot rate increases

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good time to be a repo man

'loan accomodation programs' = black hole, like so many other welfare schemes

not my bold

Actually, I don't think so.

All these Liars Loans are gonna come due and default at about the same time. There's not gonna be the market to absorb all these repo'd used cars.

So, basically, it may come down to the bank simply not willing to spend the cost to repo the cars. They may put a block of some sort on the registration process - perhaps re-issuing the title as theirs; but they won't want to spend $XXX for Sam Spade to come out and hotwire the car, likely a POS after a few years of subprime maintenance.
 
Actually, I don't think so.

All these Liars Loans are gonna come due and default at about the same time. There's not gonna be the market to absorb all these repo'd used cars.

So, basically, it may come down to the bank simply not willing to spend the cost to repo the cars. They may put a block of some sort on the registration process - perhaps re-issuing the title as theirs; but they won't want to spend $XXX for Sam Spade to come out and hotwire the car, likely a POS after a few years of subprime maintenance.



Auto Repossessions Are on the Rise, As People Walk Away From Car Loans​

 

Auto Repossessions Are on the Rise, As People Walk Away From Car Loans​

Of course they're on the rise.

That's why, with time, banks' enthusiasm to pay repo men, may dampen a bit...with the beater market being saturated, and with not enough money coming out of repossession to make it worth the hassle.

They can always wait and then try to repossess, months later.
 
I can see a future of license plate switching "theft". Junkyards can become gold mines.
 
I can see a future of license plate switching "theft". Junkyards can become gold mines.
big scandal was unearthed several months ago -- criminals printing paper (dealer) plates. it answered a long term question that i had -- why the majority of paper plate cars are driven by blacks in my area. esp the old piece of sh-t cars with paper plates - that was close to 100 percent

now i know
 
I can see a future of license plate switching "theft". Junkyards can become gold mines.
It gets moar interesting, here.

Montana has what are called "Permanent" plates and registration. Any car over ten years old, for an additional fee, can get Permanent registration. Never stand in line again.

Plates, permanent or not, are cancelled when the title transfer is recorded...as in a sale, to another owner, dealer or wrecking yard. BUT...if a car is just parked out back...having little value as scrap...the plates remain valid, as long as this law stays in effect.

And ten-year-old vehicles are not what they were 30 years ago. My truck looks like nearly-new; but it's sixteen years old and has those ever-registered plates on.

Soooo...what I expect, first, is a lot of dealing in illicit used PERM plates. Second, I expect Montana, now populated by California expats, to change the laws. Probably soon.
 
hearing some news items that some (real estate funds) are limiting/stopping investors from accessing their money that they invested in the funds.

lockdown bitchez
 
ISM services report higher than expected, PMI manufacturing report indicating a contracted economy. Maybe another 3/4 raise?
 
 
ISM services report higher than expected, PMI manufacturing report indicating a contracted economy. Maybe another 3/4 raise?
I think they will start to taper and go 50bp. Need to show the market they recognize the signs of a slowdown. Otherwise the market might freak out and over correct.
 

Fed hikes interest rate by half percentage point — benchmark rate seen topping out at 5.25%​

Story by Greg Robb • 13m ago

THE FED
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point and signals more tightening next year.

The half-point increase brings the Fed’s federal funds rate up to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, the highest since 2007, The central bank has raised rates from near-zero in March to try to dampen inflationary pressures in the wake of the pandemic.

 
I think they stop here. The market is going to break before the next meeting. They don't make it to 5.25%. Which means inflation wins.
 
I think they stop here. The market is going to break before the next meeting. They don't make it to 5.25%. Which means inflation wins.
slv, you might be correct, it really doesn't matter, they have completely broken the cycle. Buyers are rapidly exiting their collective phycosis, while the sellers are mostly still higher than a kite on paper profits.. so just sit back and enjoy. Landlords are going to see occupants not paying and them not permitted to evict. 80 to 100% loan people, the PMI crowd, are stuck in their place for the duration, the low rates have them chained as taxes, and home insurance rates grow. While the rest of us have to watch it all unfold, happy happy joy joy.

Inflation may rule but I don't think anybody wins... so in the meanwhile the powder stays dry, waiting for desperation in some sellers eyes for something that winds my watch..
 
only in their imagination. unrealized losses are big and legit - no matter how deep they bury their heads in the sand. there are billions/trillions in losses across the country for real estate owners
EO,
I've had this conversation hundreds of times, just like with the fiat dude over there, always ends the same... I'm full of sh*t until they are underwater and its my fault.. but be it stocks, rv's, pm's, vehicles or homes.. its only worth what some sucker will give you for it. That will always be time and place, and sometimes those times are a changing and the place ain't so pretty
 
This is the start of the pivot, but how does it all shake out? Nobody knows. What is their end game?

I see it as the citizens being sold out by big government. How much can they betray us without causing revolt or a total collapse?

I am praying for the giant meteor.
 
This is the start of the pivot, but how does it all shake out? Nobody knows. What is their end game?

I see it as the citizens being sold out by big government. How much can they betray us without causing revolt or a total collapse?

I am praying for the giant meteor.

Better not criticize the government or your post may get moved to a "private" forum.
dduck.gif
 
Powell has been very clear in what he wants and what's to come. Pain for the average American. Lower prices in stocks and housing and higher unemployment. Could go into a recession and he doesn't care. The one and only concern is inflation. And rightly so. Very few have jobs paying them 10% more every year to keep up with the current inflation. Retirees on fixed income are losing big time and thus the reason so many elderly are re entering the work force.
He's going to pop the bubbles. Expect at least a 30% haircut in real estate and the indexes this year.

Will he break something before he can pop the bubbles? Lets hope not. The bubbles need to be popped. we need a prolonged recession for the entire system to rid itself of the excesses.

I think his biggest issue will be federal Gov spending. remember when Obama started handing out billions to corporations and everyone was pissed for a short time? Where did fed gov get the power to start giving corps huge amounts of money? Well, now it's pretty much policy. hundreds of billions for corporations and Ukraine.

Next up will be higher taxes so they can service the debt. Lots of short term debt needs to be rolled over at much higher rates. So either they cut spending or raise taxes. All of this at a time when inflation is high and hitting everyone pretty hard, and stock markets and real estate will be headed lower so less tax revenue coming in for fed gov.
 
So either they cut spending or raise taxes
That's what's been needing done for at least the past 50 years. Prolly more 80.

Imho, the People, mostly through ignorance, have allowed the gov to get it to this point, and a future is coming where they will get Decades worth of monetary lessons in one fell swoop.
 
That's what's been needing done for at least the past 50 years. Prolly more 80.

Imho, the People, mostly through ignorance, have allowed the gov to get it to this point, and a future is coming where they will get Decades worth of monetary lessons in one fell swoop.
There is no solution to this - NONE! - short of implosion.

In one sense, Davos Man is right. We do need a hard reset.

The debate, the difference is, where do we take it, once it happens. Towards a free society, or the direction of Marx, Lenin, Mao...Castro, Obama, Gates and Schwab...
 
That's what's been needing done for at least the past 50 years. Prolly more 80.

Imho, the People, mostly through ignorance, have allowed the gov to get it to this point, and a future is coming where they will get Decades worth of monetary lessons in one fell swoop.
Ignorance is part of it, but the government hasn't exactly been either honest or transparent.
 
Ignorance is part of it, but the government hasn't exactly been either honest or transparent.
Yet many people can still see wtf is going on, and are swift enough to understand where this road they got us on, leads to.
...and if it were not for ignorance, much of it willful, all would be able to see it too.
 
Those sick people want to see wages suppressed while cost of living is increasing. They want us all just barely surviving hand to mouth. We are nothing more than NPCs in their game.
 
So where is the economics and Market information thread?

At the top of every page, you should see menu of links that include "home", "forums", "What's New", "News", etc. Click "Forums" to see a list of all the forum rooms that we have. Click on a forum room to see discussion threads related to the room's topic. There are several forum rooms dedicated to economics and markets and numerous discussion threads within them. Zed also started a general market chat thread in the "Other Markets" forum room.
 
More fuel for the rate increase fire:

Payroll growth decelerated in December but was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow economic growth.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 for the month, above the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, 0.2 percentage point below the expectation. The job growth marked a small decrease from the 256,000 gain in November, which was revised down 7,000 from the initial estimate.

Wage growth was less than expected in an indication that inflation pressures could be weakening. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and increased 4.6% from a year ago. The respective estimates were for growth of 0.4% and 5%.
...
The relative strength in job growth comes despite repeated efforts by the Fed to slow the economy, the labor market in particular. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate seven times in 2022 for a total of 4.25 percentage points, with more increases likely on the way.

Primarily, the Fed is looking to bridge a gap between demand and supply. As of November, there were about 1.7 job openings for every available worker, an imbalance that has held steady despite the Fed's rate hikes. The strong demand has pushed wages higher, though they mostly haven't kept up with inflation.
...

 
Unemployment at 3.5%? <-- That does not mesh with this:

YEAR (AS OF JANUARY)U-3 (OFFICIAL)U-6 (REAL)U-3 AS A PERCENT OF U-6COMMENTS
19946.6%11.7%56%The first year BLS reported U-6
19955.6%10.1%55%
19965.6%9.8%57%
19975.3%9.4%56%
19984.6%8.4%55%
19994.3%7.6%57%
20004.0%7.0%57%Stock market crashed in March
20014.2%7.3%58%
20025.7%9.4%61%U-3 closest to U-6
20035.8%9.9%59%
20045.7%9.8%58%
20055.3%9.2%58%
20064.7%8.4%56%
20074.6%8.3%55%
20085.0%9.1%55%
20097.8%14.1%55%High of 10.2% in October
20109.8%16.6%59%
20119.1%16.1%57%
20128.3%15.1%55%
20138.0%14.5%55%
20146.6%12.6%52%
20155.7%11.2%51%
20164.8%9.7%49%Both return to pre-recession levels
20174.7%9.2%51%
20184.0%8.0%50%
20194.0%8.0%50%
20203.5%6.9%51%The COVID-19 pandemic started in March
20216.3%11.1%57%
20223.6%6.7%54%

 
Interest rates should be composed of two things:
1: The rate of inflation so as to compensate the lender for the use of their capital
2: An amount to provide a return to the lender for the use of their capital
Based upon that interest rates have much more to go regardless of the pain to the middle class blah blah etc.
 
Yet many people can still see wtf is going on, and are swift enough to understand where this road they got us on, leads to.
...and if it were not for ignorance, much of it willful, all would be able to see it too.
Even Charlie Munger sees where it leads to.
...and plays along with it to make a buck.




My question is, why even start going ddown that road knowing full well where it leads to? Ie: the road of constant monetary expansion and ultimately debasement, that ends in destruction?
 
Even Charlie Munger sees where it leads to.
...and plays along with it to make a buck.




My question is, why even start going ddown that road knowing full well where it leads to? Ie: the road of constant monetary expansion and ultimately debasement, that ends in destruction?

WHat you say is true however how does one make a profit during the debasement is the plan they go by. Keynes, that great idol they go by, was once asked about the long term eventual collapse to which he replied something to the effect of "in the long run we are all dead." So we know the path we are on but when does it happen as opposed to will it happen is the question we need to seek. Who would have thought the can could be kicked down the road so many times since FDRs gold confiscation action?
 
Well, I am 82. So it seems I got in just as a lot more suddenly became available and everybody began really getting all the "lot more" stuff... with the world dominating Dollar Diplomacy {AKA: Dollar Imperialism} in full swing.

The candle was very bright, laying horizontally with both the Debt and Spending ends burning fiercely.

And the candle is just about to have the two end points meet in the middle. Then it will go out.

Me too, probably. It was one helluva ride.

Meanwhile, thanks for all the fish.
 
So we know the path we are on but when does it happen as opposed to will it happen is the question we need to seek.
So it's ok to just screw over the people at the end of the line? Ie: the ones who had the least say in the matter? Why not just run things in a manner that doesn't result in certain destruction?
 
I really don't GAS what Munger has to say. He and his butt-buddy Buffett, have gotten Too-Big-To-Fail...how many life insurance companies do they own?

The history books lambaste Cornelius Vanderbilt as a Gilded Age monopolist sucking the blood of working men...for creating the New York Central railroad. What Munger and Buffett have done, is take over a third of America's railroad network, making it PRIVATE - and then, with the first real test of their integrity...obeyed their Davos masters' orders and started refusing and delaying agricultural fertilizer shipments ON that massive railroad. Once it was owned by seven large corporations, now it's two crony-rich men's plaything, to be used to impose their insular, twisted, anti-life objectives.

He and Buffett are both in their nineties, and I'll drink a toast when they're on that express train to Hell.
 
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