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dpong it looks like Flanagan got whipsawed again. Would have liked to see the metals stay down into the open to add curious to see how the miners do today if we drift lower.
 
Lancers32 said:
dpong it looks like Flanagan got whipsawed again. Would have liked to see the metals stay down into the open to add curious to see how the miners do today if we drift lower.
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Oh that's right, I'd forgotten he'd decided to go short. Things have a way of not working out for him.
 
For the metal heads FWIW. Armstrong's Socrates was looking for a close in Gold by the end of September of $1706 to turn bullish if that does not occur looks for low in December somewhere in the $1500's. Don't know if he means $1501 or $1599. Two shopping days left.
 
Haven't looked at market news this morning, but my first guess would be markets reacting to potential UK contagion fears.
 
... the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has identified a number
of severe risks to financial stability. These risks may materialise simultaneously, thereby interacting with
each other and mutually amplifying their impact. The probability of tail-risk scenarios materialising has
increased since the beginning of 2022, and has been exacerbated by recent geopolitical developments.
These geopolitical developments impact energy prices and supply, implying a renewed rise in balance
sheet stress for businesses and households. Moreover, higher-than-expected inflation is tightening
financial conditions, which may amplify stress in the financial sector.

A pronounced deterioration in economic activity could lead to a renewed increase in credit risk at a time
when some credit institutions are still in the process of addressing COVID-19 pandemic-related asset
quality issues that have so far been limited due to extensive public support measures. Risks to financial
stability stemming from a sharp fall in asset prices also remain severe. Rising mortgage rates and the
deterioration in debt servicing capacity on account of a decline in real household income could exert
downward pressure on house prices. In turn, this could trigger the materialisation of accumulated
cyclical risks in real estate markets. In addition, the probability of large-scale cyber incidents impacting
the financial system has increased.

Given the increase in systemic risks to financial stability, the ESRB considers it necessary for private
sector institutions, market participants and relevant authorities to continue to prepare for materialisation
of tail-risk scenarios. ...
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So we got that going for us, which is nice.
 
Ah, that kind of contagion. I believe you are correct then.
 
I was talking with a buddy last night about the market crashing through support.

He said, "Oh, but it's recovered."

I said, "It's gone through support. 20K is in the cards! Your 401K is gonna show it."
 
pmbug said:
Haven't looked at market news this morning, but my first guess would be markets reacting to potential UK contagion fears.
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More like everyone remembered who comprises the US administration.
 
DX down miners flat no follow through Gold and Silver. Makes sense huh?
 
Only one more shopping day for Armstrong's $1706 Gold bullish idea. Close under no bueno. Or so his computer says.
 
I noticed that Gold is still trading under the old supports around $1670 make of that what you will but not too bullish. Sentiment is still favorable so we shall see.
 
Lancers32 said:
For the metal heads FWIW. Armstrong's Socrates was looking for a close in Gold by the end of September of $1706 to turn bullish if that does not occur looks for low in December somewhere in the $1500's. Don't know if he means $1501 or $1599. Two shopping days left.
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Yeah, 1715 looks like the ideal line on my chart but if we stay over 1680 there is a flag on the monthly that stays intact. FWIW this is the 6th down month, we rarely get more in a row and 6 isn't common. Odds are we put in a green month.
 
Lancers32 said:
I noticed that Gold is still trading under the old supports around $1670 make of that what you will but not too bullish. Sentiment is still favorable so we shall see.
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No follow through on a bullish day, that is one of the golden rules according to GATA. Just because they are nuts it doesn't make them wrong!
 
pmbug said:
Are institutional investors still expecting that the Fed will contain inflation? Because gold should start catching bids once that expectation changes.
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If you look at gold's history it isn't a great inflation hedge. The fact is inflation can be running @ 5% and IF you can get a decent return over 5% without risking the farm then it is a better option than gold. Stagflation or crisis is what gold really needs, so no safe returns over the inflation rate or a crisis in confidence in the government and its management of the currency. I could see inflation falling back and stabilizing at a lower rate while returns suck... basically a stagnant economic outlook and lower but persistent inflation. That is enough... we have very low rates of gold investment right now, a doubling in demand would get us back to average. Just a return to mean will blow the lid off this thing and by definition that has to happen and in fact has to be exceeded at some point.

I think that is the Feds target here, get the Ten year to 4.x% and get inflation down to say 4% ish.

Good luck with that, it looks like a big ask to me.
 
Zed said:
No follow through on a bullish day, that is one of the golden rules according to GATA. Just because they are nuts it doesn't make them wrong!
Click to expand...


Yep no follow through. Might still get a rally from here though maybe the DX just makes another attempt at the highs falters them goes to 108 or pick your number. I think Murphy played for the Patriots without a helmet that might explain things.
 
Zed said:
If you look at gold's history it isn't a great inflation hedge. The fact is inflation can be running @ 5% and IF you can get a decent return over 5% without risking the farm then it is a better option than gold. Stagflation or crisis is what gold really needs, so no safe returns over the inflation rate or a crisis in confidence in the government and its management of the currency. I could see inflation falling back and stabilizing at a lower rate while returns suck... basically a stagnant economic outlook and lower but persistent inflation. That is enough... we have very low rates of gold investment right now, a doubling in demand would get us back to average. Just a return to mean will blow the lid off this thing and by definition that has to happen and in fact has to be exceeded at some point.

I think that is the Feds target here, get the Ten year to 4.x% and get inflation down to say 4% ish.

Good luck with that, it looks like a big ask to me.
Click to expand...


Yeah but Gold is supposed to be a hedge against chaos. Maybe we get serious deflation first I really don't know.
 
pmbug said:
Are institutional investors still expecting that the Fed will contain inflation? Because gold should start catching bids once that expectation changes.
Click to expand...
If it wasn't manipulated....

It's like them saying "Words mean what we say they mean." In this case it's "Charts mean what we say they mean."

I see the $ getting stronger because the EU is getting weaker. All that wealth will come to the safest haven on the block, US. History repeats again.

It seems as if the BRICS are attempting to unseat the dollar, or at least the influence it has on their economies.

They've positioned themselves away from the US markets. I wonder if they can make it without the US? Only 15% of the world agrees with the sanctions. Is 85% enough to make the move stick? Are they self sufficient enough to go it alone?
 
Zed said:
Peterson, who basically grew up Democratic, is becoming a stronger and stronger defender of Trump's legacy.
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Peterson left the 'cancel culture' world when he said 'no way Jose' to the Canadian Marxists attempting to control language. Trump's moves made financial sense for the US and why wouldn't they? He knows money and business. He studies history as well. He applied tariffs appropriately - remember when Herbert Hoover tried it and he got blamed for the Depression? That's all everyone understood about tariffs, i.e., "They don't work.", but I think he was sabotaged as much as Trump was. Then they got FDR (their guy) in office (1933) whereupon, by design, he confiscated the people's gold as 'collateral' for the fake debt incurred in 1913. He also implemented SS and WWII.

Peterson is logical. When you consider that everything the woke culture touches turns to scheisse it only makes sense to reasoned people to embrace logic.

Lancers32 said:
Yeah but Gold is supposed to be a hedge against chaos. Maybe we get serious deflation first I really don't know.
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Chaos has yet to arrive.... :shudder:
 
Lancers32 said:
Yeah but Gold is supposed to be a hedge against chaos. Maybe we get serious deflation first I really don't know.
Click to expand...

Yeah... perfect world for gold really, all things considered.

IMO part of the issue is we have most of Wall St with less than 20 years experience and no real classic financial education --> they simply have no understanding of golds real role in the system. Which is kinda perfect fuel for an extend gold bull market... however, getting started you are fighting true ignorance in regards to gold.
 
Lancers32 said:
Yep no follow through. Might still get a rally from here though maybe the DX just makes another attempt at the highs falters them goes to 108 or pick your number. I think Murphy played for the Patriots without a helmet that might explain things.
Click to expand...

It could tag 108 but it looks like that trend has accelerated and is on a steeper incline. I fully expect a blow-off when this one is done, the run to 114 looked like it might get away to become that blow off... but no.
 
SPX Monthly - Two of the last three times the longer term momentum indicator hit 0 we were about 30% into the decline, the last time we pumped a sh*t ton of $ into the market/world and bounced. Moa money or much more downside... take your pick.

SPX-M-20220929.png
 
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