The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

So far in the overnight 30 has held. If we break 30 tomorrow then I am going heavy into ZSL. Gonna be a lot of pissed off longs that once again listened to all the metal gurus declaring this time is different. What was that number that the commercials were short? Like 568 million ounces IIRC. By the time we get to 26 they will have made about 3 billion dollars. Well, not quite. I'm sure they didn't all short at 32.75.

If 26 becomes the new floor that's still very positive in the big picture. Still going to be higher profits for miners and if we move back to 26 that's where I will start to add more mining shares. I didn't sell any at the recent top but I didn't add any either. I did regret selling my fortune shares a few weeks ago so this will be a good op to get them back at a decent price, if we hit 26.
 
Re: BRICS+ ... They have a meeting scheduled in October. There seem to be a lot of rumors (Pepe Escobar, GH's tweet guy, etc) claiming this or that, but so far no official pronouncements. These peeps might be leaking real info from connected sources or they could just be attention whores trying to act like they have inside info. IMO, the BRICS might be further along in consensus and development than what we expect, but I somewhat doubt it. Wheels tend to turn slowly on multinational projects like this and I think there would be more smoke if a fire were actually simmering.

Re: silver - I don't see it crashing back down through $30 as long as SGE/SFE is trading with >10% premium. China is setting the pace, not Wall St.
 
Cigarlover said:
So far in the overnight 30 has held. If we break 30 tomorrow then I am going heavy into ZSL. Gonna be a lot of pissed off longs that once again listened to all the metal gurus declaring this time is different. What was that number that the commercials were short? Like 568 million ounces IIRC. By the time we get to 26 they will have made about 3 billion dollars. Well, not quite. I'm sure they didn't all short at 32.75.

If 26 becomes the new floor that's still very positive in the big picture. Still going to be higher profits for miners and if we move back to 26 that's where I will start to add more mining shares. I didn't sell any at the recent top but I didn't add any either. I did regret selling my fortune shares a few weeks ago so this will be a good op to get them back at a decent price, if we hit 26.
Click to expand...

I get it but.... $30 was retested and now looks to be strong support. Will will know soon. I just about did something similar as the miners were really weak with PMs still holding up but it didn't last a day like previous times.
 
...
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a relatively stable labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended May 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday. According to consensus estimates, economists forecasted a more elevated reading of 220,000 claims.
...
Click to expand...


BS numbers that will get revised later (and still probably be BS) feeding computerized trading systems. These numbers provide further support for the Fed to hold off on rate cuts per their current rhetoric.
 
Cigarlover said:
Where's the announcement by the brick nations that they have officially set a date?
All I could find is this. https://investingnews.com/brics-currency/

So they want to replace the dollar with a cbdc. Thats a good way to get them out of the swift system but then what? It's still just a worthless currency. Are they going to demand every poor person in the world has to buy a cell phone or some other electronic gadget in order to buy or sell anything? How long will it take hackers to start stealing everyones currency electronically? Then what? Governments just going to create currency out of thin air to backstop all the losses? What about us country folk? Cell phones don't work out where I live. Even if they did not everyone can afford a phone and the service required to run them. All that going to be free now?
To many unanswered questions and there's no way our politicians have thought this through. Outside of the cities, the pushback on this will be huge.
Click to expand...
We'll have to wait n see? Prolly chip everyone - won't need a phone that way?
 
I agree with you guys. If 30 holds it's insanely positive. The old floor at around 22.50 went back to at least 2021 so to move that floor up to 30 is huge.
RE China: I'm not sure how to get info out of China to know what the demand drivers there are. How long will that premium last and will things cool off at the end of May? I have no idea but wherever the new floor for silver is, it been a very nice move for the year.
Screen Shot 2024-05-23 at 11.06.28 AM.png
 
NVDA obviously the big story today. I made a nice trade this morning. Had 1050 as the target but took profits early because power went out for an instant. So far kept my account green for the day and now we are approaching that 1050 target. Holiday weekend though so this may actually run to over 1100. If we do retest 1000 that's where I would buy in and hold. I think this will run pretty good even post split. There just doesn't seem to be any stopping this Ai stuff.
 
Cigarlover said:
...
RE China: I'm not sure how to get info out of China to know what the demand drivers there are. ...
Click to expand...

I just read a few peeps on Twitter/X that are connected to what's happening there. The people in China are worried about their economy and fleeing to safety in gold and silver is what I'm understanding from their comments.
 
China markets seem to be buying silver tonight. USA markets closed tomorrow for the holiday. Looks like there's going to be a hefty gap when USA trading opens on Tuesday.
 
pmbug said:
Click to expand...

Are those numbers accurate? Did the vaults really drop 600,000 kilos in 1 week? If that's the case those vaults are empty within a week and a 1/2 or so.

Visiting family yesterday, I had 1 family member that wanted all my high premium stuff. I was selling just to buy more lower premium stuff. So all my collectable stuff he bought. Didn't even blink at the prices and some of it was very high like the Silver lunar oxes at 350 for 2 ounce coins. He then went on JM bullion and bought a bunch of the 10 oz Robin Hood coins at like 330 or something. They were on sale for less than the price of 10 oz bars. Great deal so I looked last night when I got home and was going to buy some today to replace the silver I sold. Prices are back up to 378. He just called and said he didn't even pay for it yet and made 50 bucks per coin. LOL. Of course I missed out. :(.
 
Cigarlover said:
Are those numbers accurate?
Click to expand...

As far as I know. I've been sporadically following Bai's reports and I've seen the SFE vault numbers drop into the 800s and back to the 1,300s before, so there could just be some supply chain issue on delivering metal from miners/refiners and/or vaults that will get caught up.
 
Interesting post here... "The market always goes up!"




and there goes everyone's 401K!
 
Last edited:
I'm 99% convinced that the bankers/hedge funds/FED or whomever is using NVIDA as their last collateral against their short positions. So they are having to ramp it higher as they are Losing on their shorts. IE as Silver and Gamestop rise they have to keep NVDA going too or it all collapses.
 
giphy.gif
 
Maybe the PPT is working for Nancy Pelosi these days.
 
Voodoo said:
Backwards... Piglosi doing the bidding of the PPT team.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure that she made huge bets on NVDA. It looks like the PPT is ensuring that the bets pay off.
 
...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Thursday that the preliminary reading of Q1 GDP showed that the economy grew 1.3% in the first three months of the new year, lower than the advance reading of 1.6% and down from 3.4% reported in the fourth quarter.

The data was in line with expectations as the consensus forecast of economists was for a reading of 1.3%.
...
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures increased 3.6%, compared with the 3.4% in the advance estimate and the 2.0% seen in the last quarter. The PCE price index increased 3.3%, compared to the 1.8% reported in the fourth quarter.
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

Gold prices up after U.S. preliminary Q1 GDP drops to 1.3%, core PCE rises to 3.6%

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

So economic growth on pace, but inflation hotter than expected.
 
...
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ending May 25, the Labor Department announced on Thursday. According to consensus estimates, economists forecasted a reading of 218,000 claims. The previous week’s figure was revised upward by 1,000 to 216,000.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

Gold prices at session highs after weekly jobless claims rise to 219k

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

I'm not sure why the markets react to the labor numbers as they don't appear to have any basis in reality, but whatever.
 
Liquidity in U.S. financial markets is starting to dry up, which could it make it difficult for stocks and other risky assets to advance from here, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

According to analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, liquidity has entered what was called “a mildly contracting phrase.”

Since the end of March 2024, they estimate U.S. money supply has contracted by around $200 billion. It’s a function of three factors: the Federal Reserve’s continued, if reduced, quantitative tightening; a bottoming out of usage of the Fed’s reverse repo facility; and more subdued growth in U.S. bank lending.
...
Click to expand...


There appears to be plenty of liquidity sloshing around NVDA...
 
pmbug said:
So economic growth on pace, but inflation hotter than expected.
Click to expand...
If you can believe the reports that is...

"MOPE = Management Of Perspective Economics" Jim Sinclair

They use words to project a desired response, but the words aren't based in reality...
 
Goldhedge said:
Looking at the charts there seems to be a war going on....
Click to expand...

Absolutely a war going on. One that is reaching its Climax. It's interesting that they seem to be able to prop up 2 different areas but can NOT do both at one time. Banks and bonds really got smacked the last two days while they've been goosing NVDA. Well today its the opposite. They have stepped in hard to support Bank OXK, and the other banks and more importantly Bonds. BUT, stocks and NVDA are sliding instead.
 
I mentioned in an earlier post that that was the playbook to knock it down. Interesting that it doesn't seem to be working yet. I also wonder if the arb play is offsetting losses on the short positions. Be interesting in the next COT report to see if they are lowering their short positions.
 
Yeah, it (CME margin increases) seems like it only slows down the rise for a few days. Meanwhile, the price in China keeps rising.
 
pmbug said:
Yeah, it (CME margin increases) seems like it only slows down the rise for a few days. Meanwhile, the price in China keeps rising.
Click to expand...
Who's buying in China? Must be massive amounts to cause the price to rise...?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom