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Goldhedge said:
Years ago as a young waif I had the chance to talk to some old timers (who are long since gone) about the depression.

"What was it like?" I asked. They told me "There just was no money."

I tried to wrap my head around that statement and never could grasp what was going on.

I think we're about to learn what 'there just was no money' meant in the next few years.
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It may be even weirder this time. Their may be tons of old money that no one wants anymore and NO real money.
 
Jarrod32 said:
Yes, but from the buyers perspective: If you want us to buy your crap, you need to pay us more.
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Yes, the face value at maturity is higher than the price you pay today. Face value + Coupon @ the current offer price adds up to x% real return. They are discounting future dollars.
 
Why China is worrying the markets...

Hu Jintao wasn't just Xi Jinping's predecessor. Hu was a technocrat who represented a different method for pursuing the Chinese socialist agenda, one that shared more in common with the rest of the world. Making an example of him in front of the external cameras, the message is equally chilling as it is historic for all the wrong reasons.

 

Spot Silver Price Could Be Ready to Take Off As Premiums Skyrocket.​

22m
 
Zed said:
Why China is worrying the markets...

Hu Jintao wasn't just Xi Jinping's predecessor. Hu was a technocrat who represented a different method for pursuing the Chinese socialist agenda, one that shared more in common with the rest of the world. Making an example of him in front of the external cameras, the message is equally chilling as it is historic for all the wrong reasons.

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fake news strikes yet again... reporting half of the story...

China: What Happened to Hu Jintao?​

5m
 
Goldhedge said:
fake news strikes yet again... reporting half of the story...

China: What Happened to Hu Jintao?​

5m
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Yup, he may be right on that front but "the west is enviably going to lose to China" isn't a position I'd take. They are in worse shape at the moment for a number of reasons and their demographics suck.

IMO India will be the late bloomer that will shock many.
 
Zed said:
Don't tease me baby...

If she is awake again you'd better strap your ass down for the ride!

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Do premiums spike whenever silver is going to pop? Is this a reason silver will finally hold at higher price? Is this the nest step up like when gold went from ~$1000 to ~$1800?
 
Uglytruth said:
Do premiums spike whenever silver is going to pop?
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Premiums spike when there are shortages in the wholesale market. It could be due to issues with supply chains, diminished refining capacity, high demand outstripping production, etc. At this moment, it appears to be a combination of everything happening.
 
Rumors of an operation Twist for the FED. Clearly they were feeling the US bond problems and the long end getting away from them. Of course, this BS will absolutely bankrupt the country but hey, we pretty much were anyway. Interest payments will skyrocket because this would mean buying long-term debt back and issuing short-term debt for funding. Lol. Idiots... all of them.
 
OMG.

If today were Friday, my Weekend Trend Trader stock scanner would have me make 11 position buys on Monday.

[This doesn't feel too good.]

Windows_10-14.jpg
 
dpong said:
OMG.

If today were Friday, my Weekend Trend Trader stock scanner would have me make 11 position buys on Monday.

[This doesn't feel too good.]

View attachment 1620
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Check out the short interest in these stocks... you might save yourself a lot of false entries. I know you don't want to second guess your system BUT you don't often get across the board short squeezes going on. The other thing to consider here is that the market is probably going through a secular shift, active management is coming back and we are seeing wholesale deleveraging and de-risking of the pension funds (and imitators). They can know hit their targets without the complex levered swap positions they have been running. This selloff will likely continue as they simplify their risk structures and get back into gov paper.

I guess what I am saying is that during these market shifts it is high risk for automated systems and they may not work well on the the other side of the shift. We've basically had 40 years of similar conditions... if this is the credit market turn the next decade may be quite different.

2c

JMO
 
pmbug said:
Premiums spike when there are shortages in the wholesale market. It could be due to issues with supply chains, diminished refining capacity, high demand outstripping production, etc. At this moment, it appears to be a combination of everything happening.
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You mean retail market? Or are 1000oz bars getting tight? In the past it has been mostly production bottle necks... if industry can't get 1000oz bars then we are talking the business.
 
Uglytruth said:
Do premiums spike whenever silver is going to pop? Is this a reason silver will finally hold at higher price? Is this the nest step up like when gold went from ~$1000 to ~$1800?
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No, that can happen. Retail demand ramps up and no one is willing to invest in extra capacity to produce retail product becasue they see it as temporary. Dog cashing a school bus, they will catch it and the will not win! Thus premiums stay high but it doesn't translate to a spike in wholesale demand. Eventually it passes and premiums fall back.

However...

If it translates into wholesale shortage at the 1000oz bar level, then we are talking... then the POS just goes higher. Ideally we get a tight wholesale market and all the 'just in time' manufacturers decide to stock pile silver to ensure production capability. Then silver has a price step change.

Years ago I did a spreadsheet looking at the way the silver market moves, it predicted that the top of this wave would be $158 with a potential to over run to $199. The same model nailed the $48 top last time... this time we C! Maybe...
 
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GDX +26 and that is really starting to look like a bottom!

GDX_2022-10-26_13-20-21.png

... and a pretty big one at that.

 
A fibo + trend estimate for SPX year end. Let's see how this fares. Santa Claus rally into year end for better looking books? The we sell the puk outta Jan and start 23 on a down swing?

SPX_2022-10-26_13-44-19.png
 
The next breach to the upside of the 1700 level will be looking a lot like a break out. Ending the week higher than 1700 would be nice.

GC1!_2022-10-27_09-48-51.png
 
GDX - I see the shaded area as a bottoming process. Odd's are it completes when we break 28 upside again.

GDX_2022-10-27_09-56-02.png
 
Goldhedge said:
That will be interesting. If I know anything about Indians they are shrewd negotiators...
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Good demographics, a decent qualification system and plenty of poor folk "hungry" wanting to work their way off the bottom of the heap. Red tape and corruption has been a major issue but I think they see the opportunity to clean up and elevate the country.
 
Zed said:
You mean retail market? Or are 1000oz bars getting tight? In the past it has been mostly production bottle necks... if industry can't get 1000oz bars then we are talking the business.
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Not sure where, maybe Arcadia video today. But they were talking and the wholesaler said inventory of even 1,000 bars are harder to find now.

 
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Zed said:
That's all that counts. The day that dries up...!
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Added the video, that was it. APMEX has one for sale for "only" $3.49 / ounce over spot. Them was ASE premiums not that long ago. SDBullion still has a decent supply and only $2.25 over.
 
GDXJ was one of the bigger movers today. Juniors taking the lead is a decent indication. GDXJ has strengthened against GDX in this bottoming period.
 
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