The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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We could not hold the 50 day average. Need to bounce soon or that reversal pattern is invalidated. Technically never even in use as it is more of a continuation pattern.

Also, Amazon was trading at $100 and would appear to have broken that trendline. I'm sure it's nothing.
 
Having some trouble with my EOD price data. I think it is cleared up, but I'll wait until tomorrow to make sure it is settled down.

My system will have me purchase 20 full positions at Monday's open. It feels so wrong, but if I won't take trades when it "feels bad" then I won't be in it when it is right.

[I've heard Nick Radge speak on this many times. Nick would want me to take the trades, and I will. One day in the future it will have been the right call. Maybe just not this time, but who knows]
 
Lancers32 said:
I don't think we're too far away from a decent low risk buying opportunity in the metals. Right after the erections?
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Lancers, you got any thoughts on a False Flag and their impact on the markets?
I picked up some healthy positions in VXX yesterday. It’s at a low and I don’t trust the Democrats to go quietly into that good night...
 
dpong said:
I'm holding it hard. It's only money.
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You know it's one of the reasons that few people succeed @ trading over the long run, you really do have to fade your gut reactions.

It's also why guys trading 'rent money' lose and people with plenty succeed... "it's only money" brings that much needed emotional detachment.

I know you know this... more repeating it to myself... I need constant reminding.
 
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It's the same attitude you have to have when gambling.
It's not actual money, it's just a pile of chips.
If you can make that disconnect you're freeing yourself from some very restrictive thought patterns
 
Jodster said:
Lancers, you got any thoughts on a False Flag and their impact on the markets?
I picked up some healthy positions in VXX yesterday. It’s at a low and I don’t trust the Democrats to go quietly into that good night...
Click to expand...
The market seems to like war right now. I have no clue really. I'm waiting for SP 320. We'll see. The election might be fixed who knows. Except for a handful of Republicans they're all hot garbage. Anyone voting to send our money to Ukraine needs to go. Might get more upside for a bit.
 
Lancers32 said:
The election might be fixed who knows. Except for a handful of Republicans they're all hot garbage.
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It's going to be really interesting to see how the election plays. Given the poll numbers that I have seen re biden's approval ratings, I can only imagine they have no choice but to do what they did with Trump. I also imagine that will be a very expected move and people will be waiting to see what they do. It sounds like there might be conflict at the polling booths.

Maybe I'm over doing it, but it looks like there are scores that need to be settled.
 
The ASX Gold Tribe are not taking Fridays gold action too badly, off ~0.6% today...
 
Dips are getting bought in the miners while gold continues to act weak. I was expecting a rally to get back toward the 200-DMA, but perhaps we just go sideways and let the 200-DMA fall down to us?
I'd really like to see some strength in gold here.
 
jelly said:
Dips are getting bought in the miners while gold continues to act weak. I was expecting a rally to get back toward the 200-DMA, but perhaps we just go sideways and let the 200-DMA fall down to us?
I'd really like to see some strength in gold here.
Click to expand...

Sideways until the election sounds good to me...
 
Warren Irwin talks sense about gold and gold stocks... the voice of experience.

podcasts.google.com

Palisades Gold Radio - Warren Irwin: Greed and Gold’s Greatest Scam

Tom welcomes back a past guest of the show, Warren Irwin. Warren discusses the valuable lessons from the BRE-X story. He had just graduated from university when the excitement around BRE-X was happening, and it was the poster child at the time being heavily promoted. After investing in the...
podcasts.google.com podcasts.google.com
 
Ive been watching the action in the metals from the sidelines for a long time and if I was going to trade, I would buy a couple of days before month/ quarter/ year end and sell early the following month.
There always seems to be a beat down just before these points and a recovery into the new month.
But I am not brave enough or organised enough to act on these observations and am happy to know that my stash is not in the banking system.
I reckon I will struggle to convert it back to fiats should the time come and fully appreciate how detachment is a major part of the process.
 
Zed said:
Yes when I get the gambling analogy I make the point that it's not a win or total loss situation and you are in fact in control of the amount that you lose. Risk control is everything!
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The gambling analogy only works for me if I envision myself as the casino, or the house. The roulette table, for example, is engineered to give the casino a sleight edge. It is the casino's job to exploit that edge as much as possible. I, too, need to have an edge and exploit that edge. So in a way I'm not really gambling at all. And since I said the gambling analogy works for me iff.... I've completely talked myself into a circle. Jeez.

[Also. What Zed said.]
 
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...
Monday, Eurostat, the EU’s official statistics agency, said that preliminary data shows its Consumer Price Index hitting a new record high of 10.7% for the year in October. The data was significantly hotter than expected as economists were looking for a rise of 9.9%.
...
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www.kitco.com

Gold in euro is bouncing off three month lows as EU inflation rises 10.7% in October

(Kitco News) - Gold against the euro is bouncing off last week’s three-month lows as inflation continues to surge higher in the eurozone.
www.kitco.com

More fuel for central banks to raise rates...
 
dpong said:
The gambling analogy only works for me if I envision myself as the casino, or the house. The roulette table, for example, is engineered to give the casino a sleight edge. It is the casino's job to exploit that edge as much as possible. I, too, need to have an edge and exploit that edge. So in a way I'm not really gambling at all. And since I said the gambling analogy works for me iff.... I've completely talked myself into a circle. Jeez.
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OK, I am "gambling" in this regard: I am betting that my demonstrated edge, demonstrated by back testing, continues into the future. That is the bet I have to make to continue to expect a positive outcome over time.
 
Today the Fed speaks. If Greg Mannorino is correct they might start to change the narrative. If Tom Luongo is correct they might keep their foot on the gas. Either way the markets might react.

On Monday my Weekend Trend Trader system did indeed purchase 20 different stock symbols so we are 100% invested at this time. We are currently up 2.71%, which means nothing really, but feels better than being down by 2.71%. :)

[What will be, will be.]
 
dpong said:
... they might keep their foot on the gas. ...
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FWIW, Larry Summers was posting on Twitter advocating for keeping the foot on the gas. He's not a Fed honcho, but he is tight with that crowd.
 
The fed fucked up and now has to make amends. Lower stock prices and lower real estate is the goal. Higher unemployment as well. The markets keep talking up this fed pivot. Not going to happen unless something seriously breaks.
All these rate hikes should put us in a strong recession next year. Much needed IMO. The stock market constantly rallying is only going to make Powell feel like he has to do more. It's the opposite of what he wants. I am seeing prices come down in real estate. 20% or more but they still have a long way to go.
 
So what are they going to do today? I think they will certainly keep the 75 basis point raise but look to start lowering and probably 50 basis point next meeting. That will be enough to kill the economy but it's not going fix commodity driven supply side inflation. They are farked. The key will be how they continue with selling bonds or are they already forced to buy them back.
 
I think this is what most people were expecting.

Bloomberg_com-3.jpg
 
My Weekend Trend Trader 20 stock portfolio is going up on the news. Thanks, Fed.
 
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