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Old 04-24-2018, 11:31 AM   #201
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So Greek banks could 'lend' everyone in Greece a few thousand euro and it would be within the rules ?
Then with 'non performing loans' allowed to die rather than be paid back, as per the new rules being considered, this would be a great way for the Greek people, who have not had an easy time of austerity, to get back at the bastards who have done them down.

Would the Greek gov be up for this ? would be quite popular I reckon (-:
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Old 05-16-2018, 09:52 AM   #202
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Italy's Five Star and Lega are working to form a coalition. It's looking very anti-EU:

Quote :
...
Rumors last night the coalition was about to collapse seem to be false. Explosive details emerge today as noted in these Tweets.

Details
  1. Five Star and the League expect the ECB to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt
  2. The two parties want to re-open European Treaties and to "radically reform" the stability and growth pact. The coalition would also want to reconsider Italy's contribution to the EU budget.
  3. According to @HuffPostItalia, the 5 Star/League draft agreement would include an opt-out mechanism to leave the euro in an "agreed manner" were there to be a "clear popular will" to do so.
  4. The draft document says Italy should stay in Nato, but asks for an immediate withdrawal of sanctions vs Russia, so that Moscow can return to be a "strategic partner" in conflict zones
  5. According to @HuffPostItalia, the 5 Star/League draft document says there would be a "flat tax"... but with several tax rates and deductions
  6. Italy's pension reform would be dismantled: workers would be able to retire when the sum of their retirement age and years of contribution is at least 100.
  7. The draft coalition agreement of a 5 Star/Lega government leaked to @HuffPostItalia calls for a revision of the Dublin regulation on immigration and for compulsory relocation of asylum seekers across the EU
...
More: https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...0ijTGJNCTrSpQ/

Quote :
...
The draft agreement also contains a eurozone exit clause, on page 35. The two parties commit to introducing (our translation)"specific technical procedures of an economic and legal nature” to allow the country to leave the euro, or to obtain an opt-out if there is a popular majority. The article points out that this clause questions the principle of the euro's irreversibility. We heard a comment from the two parties yesterday that this clause is no longer in the current draft.

On page 38, almost at the end, there is a reference to the cancellation of the stock of Italian sovereign debt held by the ECB.
...
There can be no doubt that Five Star and Lega are following a radical agenda even if this draft agreement were to be rendered a little flatter in subsequent revisions. ...
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...E2K7Pxi00_V1A/
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:42 AM   #203
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...
In an unprecedented vote that exposed deep EU divisions, the European Parliament in Strasbourg backed a report calling for Hungary to be sanctioned for its crackdown on NGOs, the media and universities.

Budapest’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto denounced the vote to trigger the “Article 7” procedure as the “petty revenge” of “pro-immigration politicians”.
...
Hungary has long been at loggerheads with Brussels over its opposition to the EU’s mandatory migrant quotas and strongman leader Viktor Orban has allied himself with Eurosceptic leaders such as Italy’s interior minister Matteo Salvini.
...
On Tuesday, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s populist strongman leader, spoke in the European Parliament.

He claimed that the verdict had “already been written”. “Hungary will be condemned because Hungarians have decided their country is not going to be a country of migrants," he told MEPs on Tuesday.

He said that European Parliament elections in May next year would be the battleground between pro-EU and nationalistic politicians where Europe’s future direction would be settled. Prominent far-right figures are floating the idea of forging a pan-European alliance ahead of next year's elections.

Mr Orban insisted that all of the criticism against his government is based on Hungary's tough anti-immigration policies, which include fences built in 2015 on Hungary's southern borders with Serbian and Croatia to divert the flow of migrants and very restrictive asylum rules. He has also expressed his desire to remain within the EPP, which he said was "deeply divided" on the issue of migration.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-votes-...112928594.html

Farage invited Orban to "join the Brexit club":

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Old 10-03-2018, 11:05 AM   #204
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After four successive days of increasing risk spreads, and after a prominent politician, Claudio Borghi, said there was an advantage to having your “own currency,” Italy is back squarely on both public and private radar screens as a potential source of systemic economic and financial disruptions. This has led to suggestions that the country could become “a new Greece.”
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...d=economics-vp

Ouch!
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:26 PM   #205
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Italy is far more in control of this situation than anyone at the EU commission will admit. What’s that old saying about banks and owing them $1 million dollars?
............

Italy is far too large for the EU to even consider kicking out. It’s not going to happen and Italy knows it.

This budget deficit is simply Italy calling the EU’s bluff. What are they going to do? The largest country in the world, the reserve currency issuer, is running an almost 4% of GDP fiscal deficit with unemployment at record lows. If the United States is doing it, why shouldn’t Italy?

The world is changing. Deficits are the new normal and Italy’s latest salvo is just one of many changes that will happen in the coming months and years.

The days of the EU being able to throttle back fiscal expansion are behind us.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...spending-party
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:31 AM   #206
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Quote :
After starting off strong, Italian 10Y Yields have leaked wider all morning after a senior government official said on Wednesday that Italy’s 2019 budget may be rejected by the European Commission and a credit rating downgrade is also possible.

"Let’s say that the premise is there" for the commission to start an infraction process over the budget, Stefano Buffagni, cabinet undersecretary for regional affairs, said in an interview with Radio Capital cited by Reuters.

“Premier (Giuseppe) Conte is going to the EU to explain the motivations” behind the budget, he added.
...
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank economists said they think that Italy is squarely on a collision course with the European Commission, whose President Juncker said yesterday that there would be a “violent reaction” from other euro area countries if the Italian budget were to be approved.

The Commission has two weeks to decide on whether to ask for budget revisions. ...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...grade-possible
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Old 10-23-2018, 09:44 AM   #207
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The European Commission rejected Italy’s budget, a European official said, an unprecedented step in the bloc’s history that’s set to escalate a standoff between Rome and Brussels that has rattled markets for months.

The negative opinion means the EU’s executive arm is asking the government to take back, revise and resubmit its plans -- though Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte told Bloomberg shortly before the widely expected decision that there’s no “Plan B” for the fiscal program.

The rejection follows months of discord and tension over the spending targets, which Italy accepts breach EU rules. Italy has the highest debt ratio in the euro area after Greece, and its plans have unsettled investors, sending its bond yields to a five-year high last week. Moody’s Investors Service last week downgraded Italy to just one level above junk.

While actual sanctions are still improbable and wouldn’t be levied for months, European officials have been wary of handing ammunition to Italy’s euroskeptic government that already waged one successful election campaign by blaming the EU for many of the country’s ills.

Following the commission’s decision, Italy now has three weeks to revise its spending plans and resubmit them to Brussels for a fresh review.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...reaching-rules

Quote :
...
Italy's budget rebellion comes at particularly difficult time for the Eurozone. Germany's exports will collapse if there is no deal, and that is increasingly likely.

Even if there is a deal, Germany is in a world of hurt over car emissions. And if Italy is cut to Junk (Moody's is one stop above Junk level), its bonds cannot be used as collateral.

If on top of this, Trump puts a tariff on German cars, kiss Germany goodbye.

I doubt the Eurozone survives this onslaught intact.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...k24Md2P7wxQQQ/
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Old 10-23-2018, 12:23 PM   #208
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Gee, seems like the united states of Europe is having lots of problems lately. They keep telling us to be more like them, just like the liberals here tell us we need to be more like Europe. I'd still rather see the U.N. dissolved before they end up establishing a united states of Earth.
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Old 10-24-2018, 08:34 AM   #209
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Quote :
In what may prove to be a painful admission in retrospect and an inadvertent green light for future bank runs, on Wednesday morning Italy's Cabinet Undersecretary Giancarlo Giorgetti said in an interview on Italy's RAI that Italian banks would need a "recapitalization" if the spread with German bonds continues to rise toward 400 basis points, from the current level of 314bps which is just shy of the widest level it has been going back to early 2013.



The last time "lo spread" hit 400 bps was in late 2012, around the time of Mario Draghi's legendary "whatever it takes" speech.

According to the Italian official, who is Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s closest aide, bank assets would "automatically" suffer if the spread neared the 400-level and so as a consequence recapitalization would be needed. And since a recap for Italy's capital starved banks would likely entail balance sheet restructurings, accompanied by bail-ins of creditors and/or depositors, the closer "lo spread" got to the critical red line, the more likely Italian bank runs will become.

Said otherwise, the Italian population will now be even more focused on the spread of Italian bonds, and the higher it grows, the less comfort Italians will have with keeping their savings in local banks, and the more likely bank jogs (and then runs) will become.
...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...oming-bank-run
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Old 10-25-2018, 05:40 AM   #210
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Both sides will have a plan B
Its unrealistic to think that even in their arrogant presumption of being in charge, they will not plan for the Italians to do something that would cause (in their view) serious harm to Italy.

My instinct has always been that Germany will roll over and 'print to infinity' rather than let the Euro collapse.
There are too few alive now who can remember and remind us of the effects of hyperinflation
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:39 PM   #211
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So it seems Italy is telling the EU to go pound sand over the budget:

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...U-fiOtcTfWJRg/
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