No banks are safe (bail ins, FDIC limits, systemic risks)

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Cash Withdrawals And Deposits BANNED By May 20th​

11
 

How $1 billion vanished in Republic Bank collapse​

The Monday after taking over the Philadelphia region’s failed Republic Bank, Fulton Bank, based in Lancaster County, turned its plans toward new customers and deciding which branches to keep open and which employees to retain.

Among losers in the financial collapse of Republic, seized Friday by state regulators, were shareholders, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and up to half of the 430 employees.

The company was worth around $350 million, or $5 a share, as recently as May 2022, as factions led by Commerce Bank founder Vernon Hill, Wall Street investor Andrew Cohen, and South Jersey political leader George Norcross fought for control of the bank, founded in 1988.

Last fall, the Norcross group appeared to have won the power struggle, but in February, it canceled an agreement to invest in the bank, citing worse-than-expected financial data in Republic’s long-delayed reports to the Securities & Exchange Commission. Republic claimed it still had enough capital to stay in business without the Norcross money. But with no other investor in view, regulators pulled the plug on Friday, calling Republic “unsafe and unsound.”

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You can learn more about the money laundering scheme here https://www.pmbug.com/threads/fiat-...y-laundering-fraud-ponzi-etc.7257/post-101380

Investors need to put greater weight on worst-case scenarios for TD: analyst​

May 6, 2024
There could be a 7% ($1B) downside to TD's earnings potential due to the probe tied to laundering drug money, says Gabriel Dechaine, Canadian banks analyst at National Bank Financial.


5:36
 
Bail-ins support banks
Moral hazard unleashed
Socialized losses
The hell of it is...with mandatory EFT for payroll and other income, there's not a practical way to de-bank one's self.

I think the Elites are going to find out what happens when they COMPLETELY DESTROY any trust in the financial institutions.

As in, who the hell is gonna work, when compensation is a crap shoot? If they want us to starve, and are working to make it happen...might as well go down fighting, and take some of their footsoldiers with us.
 
Dan's at the fish market today.

FYI: I watch some of Dan's vids as much for entertainment as I do for news. He walks through some neat places and makes his vids interesting. As usual, dyodd.

Your Bank Could Betray You - What They Aren't Telling You!​

May 11, 2024 #BankRun #BankClosed #Cash

🚨 BANKING CRISIS EXPOSED: What They Aren't Telling You! 🚨 Dive into the shocking truths behind the banking sector's move towards digital-only transactions, potentially signaling a major shift in global financial practices. You cannot deny what we are going to be heading into. Now you have a bank that will deny all transactions. This bank will be closed basically to human contact. No deposits, no withdrawals and no cashier's checks.


20:17

Here are the links for the stories mentioned in this video:

https://share.newsbreak.com/6un84qnq
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/09/w...
https://share.newsbreak.com/6u4oa6xp
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/l...
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitica...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millen...
https://upnorthlive.com/news/local/ho...
 
bank failures in 6 to 12 months... agrees with Armstrong Economics

Huge Financial Shock Inevitable & Hitting Now – Ed Dowd​

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst. Even though he has a wildly popular book on CV19 vax deaths and injuries called “Cause Unknown,” he is now turning his attention back to the economy. Dowd warns the economy can fall out of bed at any time. Dowd explains, “What’s coming up next is a credit cycle. We are going to see commercial real estate go into problem mode. There are a lot of loans that need to be rolled over in 2024 and 25. A lot of these properties are down 80% . . . . There is huge credit risk coming. The prediction of bank failures is accurate. We are going to see, over the next 12 to 24 months, banks go belly-up. Then, they will have to get merged with bigger banks.”

What happens to the Biden economy? Dowd says, “The economy is going to take a nosedive sometime in the next 12 months. The real economy is not doing well. . . . The only thing that has been holding up the GDP growth is government spending. We are spending $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s adding $1 trillion to the deficit. The only job creation is government jobs, and they don’t actually add to the economy. . . . Reports are coming out now that the low-income consumer is getting absolutely hammered. McDonald’s talked about it in their most recent earnings call. . . . So, low-income and the middle-class are getting squeezed while the rich continue to plug along.”

Dowd told me off camera that the economy could get into trouble without warning. Dowd explains, “You’ve got to look at history. In 2008 and 2009, everyone talks about the crisis, but bank failures started showing up in 2007. . . . I suspect as we roll through time in the real economy and the money supply issues start to hit the economy, we will see more bank failures and more businesses shut down. 46% of small businesses are having problems paying their rent. There is going to come a time in the next 6 to 12 months this huge shock that we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2000 bubble where massive layoffs start to happen–it’s inevitable. This is what happens when you crank up interest rates from 0% to 5.5%. There is a lag in the real economy, and it’s hitting right now. It’s only going to intensify as time goes on.

Dowd likes gold as a core asset. He also thinks the dollar has a way to go before it tanks, but it will tank someday. Down also thinks that the CV19 bioweapon shot pushers are trying to change the narrative to admit “some deaths” happened, but the amount is small. Dowd calls BS on that, and he thinks the death and injuries are at least 33 million in the USA alone. According to Dowd’s research, the CV19 vax was a criminal enterprise that murdered and seriously harmed millions. Dowd thinks the deaths and injuries from the CV19 vax are going to get worse. Dowd thinks Johns Hopkins and the rest of the medical community are trying to change the narrative, so they don’t get blamed for pushing a massive death and disability CV19 vax program.

There is much more in the 53-minute interview.

 
This post may contain affiliate links for which PM Bug gold and silver discussion forum may be compensated.
Just in time. Pretty sure we've discussed Bank OZK before. Perhaps not. They have an outsized CRE loan position.
Well today Citibank analyst just lowered their rating (from a March 2024 Buy) ALL the way down to Sell. These guys Never put out a sell. Watch this bank closely.
 

Status of Banks’ Unrealized Losses in Q1: Worsened after Brief Rate-Cut-Mania Relief​

In Q1 2024, “unrealized losses” on securities held by commercial banks increased by $39 billion (or by 8.1%) from Q4, to a cumulative loss of $517 billion. These unrealized losses amount to 9.4% of the $5.47 trillion in securities held by those banks, according to today’s FDIC’s quarterly bank data for Q1.

The securities are mostly Treasury securities and government-guaranteed MBS that don’t produce credit losses, unlike loans where banks have been taking credit losses, particularly in commercial real estate loans. These are pristine securities whose market value dropped because interest rates rose. When these securities mature – or in the case of MBS, when pass-through principal payments are made – holders of these securities are paid face value. But until then, higher yields mean lower prices.

These unrealized losses were spread over securities accounted for under two methods:

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RE: post 452

 
Simon White - Bloomberg macro strategist said:
... over the last two years small banks have doubled down on their CRE exposure to almost a third of assets - with barely a pause after SVB – while large banks have reduced theirs down to 6.5%.
...
Not all CRE is bad, and not all banks will find themselves in trouble from souring commercial loans. But it is highly conceivable some will. Those with most exposure to office space, given rising delinquency rates, and to multifamily residential due to collapsing apartment prices, are a good place to start.
...
Furthermore, banks that make lots of loans quickly often run into issues down the line as underwriting standards can slip in haste (or are willfully overlooked to gain market share). Thus another first approach is to look at the banks who have seen their exposure to CRE rise the most since SVB’s bankruptcy.

Perhaps not uncoincidentally, some of the most shorted regional banks are those that have seen the fastest growth in commercial real estate loans, including Arkansa-based Bank OZK and BOK Financial Corporation.
...
Einstein’s definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. Smaller banks in the US continue to lose money on commercial real estate, face heavy losses on securities portfolios as yields push higher, and are just as exposed in the aggregate to bank runs from uninsured deposits. Sanity thus demands being ready for more bank failures.

 
Just in time. Pretty sure we've discussed Bank OZK before. Perhaps not. They have an outsized CRE loan position.
Well today Citibank analyst just lowered their rating (from a March 2024 Buy) ALL the way down to Sell. These guys Never put out a sell. Watch this bank closely.
George Gleason, a lawyer at the Rose Law Firm, bought Bank of Ozark in 1979 when it had $28 million in assets and changed its name to Bank of the Ozarks. In 1994 the bank had five locations but began expanding. The headquarters moved to Little Rock in 1995
 
The US may need to legislate special funds to refinance commercial property just like China did last month. I would stop short of of the government buying up property too, but that could be part of their plan. IDK
 
...
In its Quarterly Banking Profile report, the FDIC says banks are now saddled with more than half a trillion dollars in paper losses on their balance sheets, due largely to exposure to the residential real estate market.
...
“Unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities increased by $39 billion to $517 billion in the first quarter. Higher unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, resulting from higher mortgage rates in the first quarter, drove the overall increase. This is the ninth straight quarter of unusually high unrealized losses since the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in first quarter 2022.”

The FDIC also says that the number of lenders on its Problem Bank List rose last quarter. According to the agency, these banks are on the brink of insolvency due to financial, operational, or managerial weakness or a combination of such issues.

“The number of banks on the Problem Bank List, those with a CAMELS composite rating of ‘4’ or ‘5’ increased from 52 in fourth quarter 2023 to 63 in first quarter 2024. The number of problem banks represented 1.4% of total banks, which was within the normal range for non-crisis periods of 1% to 2% of all banks. Total assets held by problem banks increased $15.8 billion to $82.1 billion during the quarter.”
...

 
How things have changed -

Barings went down for $827 million
and Bear Stearns was valued by JPM at $263 million when it took it over.

kinda rounding errors compared to todays exposure levels.
 
George Gleason, a lawyer at the Rose Law Firm, bought Bank of Ozark in 1979 when it had $28 million in assets and changed its name to Bank of the Ozarks. In 1994 the bank had five locations but began expanding. The headquarters moved to Little Rock in 1995

Hmm, started in the 1990's. In Little Rock, AR. That bank may be more intertwined / important than I first thought. Thinking politics here.
 
Related, opinion piece.

Breakingviews: Five reasons financial disasters are hard to avoid​

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If we understand the causes of financial crises and how to prevent them, why do they keep happening? That was the provocative question posed to a group of regulators, academics, and investors at the London School of Economics last week. The participants, who had gathered to mark the 10th anniversary of the university’s Systemic Risk Centre, opens new tab, reached a sober conclusion: old problems and new dangers create the conditions for more turbulence.

The Systemic Risk Centre was set up after the 2008 meltdown to study what had gone wrong and, more importantly, be better prepared for future trouble. The intervening period has hardly been calm. The centre opened its doors shortly after the euro zone crisis peaked in 2012. In recent years, financiers and watchdogs have grappled with a succession of system-wide problems: the extreme market turbulence caused by the onset of the Covid pandemic, the collapse of Archegos Capital Management, opens new tab in 2021, the turmoil in UK sovereign debt, opens new tab in 2022, and the failures of Credit Suisse and several U.S. regional banks a few months later. It’s therefore no surprise regulators are anxiously scanning the horizon for the next source of trouble.

 
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The above article makes no mention of the idiocy of the Ukranian love-fest, and the utter debasement of the world's reserve currency.

If banks don't take into account the fact that in TWO DAYS the US dollar is going to take the biggest, hardest hit** in its history, they are not even being serious.

** The Petrodollar will have ceased to exist this coming Monday morning. For 50 years, the Saudis have made the entire world use US fiat for their oil. That deal is OVER. [door slams shut]
 
Looks like the little bit of calm before the storm may be done. This seems bad. And just in time for the US markets to be Closed for Juneteenth nonsense on a quad witching week. Large Japanese bank will be dumping foreign bonds (like you know, ours).

 
  • Basel Committee approves revisions to Core principles for effective banking supervision.
  • Decides to consult on potential measures to address window-dressing behaviour by some banks in the context of the framework for global systemically important banks.
  • Reaffirms expectation that all aspects of Basel III will be implemented in full, consistently and as soon as possible.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision met on 28–29 February 2024 in Madrid to take stock of recent market developments and risks to the global banking system, and to discuss a range of policy and supervisory initiatives.


An update. There are a few pics, but this is basically a podcast. Can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

The 2024 updates to the Basel Core Principles​

Jun 20, 2024

What are the Core Principles, why have they been revised and what are the key changes? In this video, the BCBS and Financial Stability Institute explain.


13:11

For those who prefer to read:

The Core Principles for effective banking supervision, also known as the Basel Core Principles (BCPs), are the minimum global standards for the sound prudential regulation and supervision of banks and banking systems. Initially published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in 1997, the BCPs have been updated three times. There are 29 principles applicable to all banks in all jurisdictions. Prudential authorities use the BCPs as a benchmark to assess the quality of their regulatory and supervisory frameworks and to help identify future work to achieve a baseline level of sound supervisory practices. They are also used by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to evaluate the effectiveness of countries' banking supervision systems as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP).

 
"Principles? We don't need no stinking principles!" /JP Morgan et al (probably)
 
Looks like the little bit of calm before the storm may be done. This seems bad. And just in time for the US markets to be Closed for Juneteenth nonsense on a quad witching week. Large Japanese bank will be dumping foreign bonds (like you know, ours).


Rafi makes a good point. This could be the BOJ trying to find some support for the Yen.

 


There is something "amiss" in the U.S. banking sector, says Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, warning that big institutional players are "unloading" the stocks of big banks.

"I'm hearing a lot of chatter about the big banks unloading bad debt right now, trying to get ahead of some sort of crisis looming," Soloway tells Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News. "Because interest rates are so high, the amount of losses in mortgage-backed securities potentially rival what we saw in 2008 and 2009. In addition, the commercial real estate market is in tatters. And these are all things that banks are holding on their balance sheets."
...

 

Big US banks expected to be cautious on shareholder payouts​

WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - Big U.S. lenders are expected to show they have ample capital to weather any renewed turmoil during this week's Federal Reserve health checks, but will be conservative on investor payouts amid economic and regulatory uncertainties, analysts said.

The central bank on Wednesday will release the results of its annual bank "stress tests" which assess how much cash lenders would need to withstand a severe economic downturn and how much they can return to investors via dividends and share buybacks.

The results come a year after three large banks failed and as higher Fed interest rates continue to squeeze regional lenders' margins and their commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios. Weakening consumer demand has also dampened sentiment on the trajectory of the economy.

With more mid-sized banks in the mix this year, the tests should provide fresh insight into the health of those lenders.

Introduced following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the annual exercise is integral to banks' capital planning.

More:

 
...
On Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board jointly released their findings on the resolution or wind-down plans in a potential bankruptcy of the eight megabanks in the U.S. The plans are also known as “living wills.”

It came as no surprise to us that the four largest U.S. derivative banks — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup’s Citibank, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs — were faulted on shortcomings in how they planned to wind down their derivatives. The surprise was that the Fed – which has a gold-plated revolving door to these banks – would acknowledge the derivatives problem after years of ignoring it.
...

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