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Taken together, the first study (published two months ago) shows that large US banks have weaker economic capital compared with 2007, and the second study shows that economic capital better predicts bank failures than the classic capital ratio used in the Fed’s stress tests. The takeaway from these studies is very simple: large banks are now more likely to fail than before the GFC. This effectively ends the argument of those who still believe that large banks are better prepared for a crisis than they were in 2007.
Bottom line
Believe it or not, there are more major issues on the larger bank balance sheets as compared to smaller banks, which we have covered in past articles. Moreover, consider that there was one major issue which caused the GFC back in 2008, whereas today, we currently have many more large issues on bank balance sheets. These risk factors include major issues in commercial real estate, rising risks in consumer debt (approaching 2007 levels), underwater long-term securities, over-the-counter derivatives, high-risk shadow banking (the lending for which has exploded), and elevated default risk in commercial and industrial (C&I) lending. So, in our opinion, the current banking environment presents even greater risks than what we have seen during the 2008 GFC.
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