The day's price movements

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Follow up to post #237 above:
Trading behavior is changing in the gold space with investors preferring physical versus paper while at the same time investing more in ETFs than futures, according to Commerzbank.

Traders issued the largest delivery notice on record at Comex, declaring their intent to deliver 3.27 million ounces of gold against the August Comex contract.

“According to traders, 102 tons of gold were delivered to the holders of expiring gold future contracts on the Comex last Thursday – this also fits the picture of changed investor behavior,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “Physical deliveries on the Comex have been rising for months: they totaled just 26 tons in February, 98 tons in April and as much as 171 tons in June.”

This trading pattern shows that investors prefer physical to paper gold, Fritsch pointed out.

Now that's an indication of monetary policy and financial investing wokeness I did not expect. Maybe some of these hedge fund types actually remember and learned from MF Global and won't get Corzined again.
$1995 0n Bullionvault live order board and $1975 on Kitco spot ............

new ATH in £ sterling (-:

and silver up $1 in the last hour on both charts .... wtf ?

Is Kitco like the BBC on 9-11. There was a major sell off as profit takers saw a chance to get out just ahead of an obvious selling point .......
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I was thinking of buying more gold, then the rush up scared me. Then I read some are saying $4K is on the horizon. . . . What to do?
if I wasnt already 'all in' and I had some spare beer tokens, I would buy at this time

upsides -
massive money printing everywhere causing loss of confidence
negative real interest rates for the forseeable future
Robinhood traders starting to show interest
suppression schemes becoming less effective
technicals all looking positive

downsides -
big market selloff causes some to sell as they need to liquidate to meet margin calls
Yamashita's gold stash shows up
Physicists develop way of creating gold atoms cheaply
Banksters invent a new and effective supression strategy

Much as I dislike silver ( for biting me in the ass big time as I purchased close to the ATH back in 2012 ) I think it will move further and faster than gold but gold will become increasingly important in world trade as confidence in fiat fades.
Long and worthwhile read (details are of interest):

We appear to be witnessing the early stages of a breakdown in the paper gold markets on Comex and in London, brought forward by central banks committed to accelerating their inflationary policies in an act of macroeconomic desperation to save their government finances and their economies. The method employed is a dead ringer for an earlier experiment in France exactly three hundred years ago when John Law’s Mississippi bubble imploded, destroying his currency, the livre.

If you bind the fate of financial assets to that of your fiat currency, as John Law did, and which is now the policy of the Federal Reserve, when the bubble pops the currency goes pop as well. This outcome is so obvious that the smart money is now getting out of fiat and into physical gold and silver, as witnessed through deliveries on Comex active contract expiries and the disappearance of all physical liquidity in London.

This being the case, a gathering stampede out of paper currencies and derivative contracts into physical bullion has just started. Unless it is somehow stopped, it will destroy paper markets and with them the banks that have benefitted from them over the last forty years. The acceleration in the destruction of fiat money will gather pace in the next few months, and anyone who spouts macroeconomic nonsense instead of acting in the face of these developments will end up with nothing.

If he's right about the fragility of the LBMA/COMEX system and the banks get squeezed on their short positions, it's likely to create some catastrophic events (along with metal valuations that make the crazy crystal ball predicitons look tame)..
The report on 3/2/20 noted the maintenance margins for 100oz gold were raised from $5,000 to $5,500. Kim says they are now at $8,350 four weeks later. ...

... According to the CME website, maintenance margins on 100oz gold contract is now $9,150. ...

I just checked the CME website. The maintenance margin for the gold contract is now $8,700. Very strange for it to have gone down at some point while the gold price has continued to go up. :confused:
I guess I posted too much bullish stuff yesterday. Prices getting hammered today. Metals are on sale (if you can find any).
Looks like the gold and silver markets have slept off their hangover. Moving on up again.
Two things that I picked up on over the weekend that seemed reassuring -

1. Warren Buffets dumping banking shares and buying a chunk of Barrick Gold
2. A note from Paul Tustain asking hopeful new BullionVault customers waiting for their financial details to be checked and approved, to please be patient as 'they are dealing with an unprecenented new level of applications'
More ominously, I see the rhetoric, especially from China, ramping up. Currency war is around the corner.
starting to feel like they have got price suppression back under control.
$1940 seems like an acceptable number for the moment .....
I'm sure the Fed and most central banks want to keep the price of gold from rising too quickly to maintain confidence in the currencies. It's going to be hard to keep a fixed lid on it though with the new commitment to stoking inflation with brrrt.
could this be the reason we dont see the overnight beatdowns so much these days ?

The fact that the daily silver trading volume on the SHFE immediately rose six times after the introduction of night trading hours made perfect logical sense given the massive volatility in spot silver prices that often are artificially engineered in London and New York markets. Thus, traders in Shanghai ramped up their trades during the hours in which silver futures prices were being manipulated the most which led to an explosion in daily trading volume.

We would need to compare that SHFE trading volume to normal London/New York volume to put it in proper perspective.
I guess everything is on sale this morning. I wonder if I can find any physical at a good price...
So what happened ?

I went out to play today and came back to a big drop in pog ..........
Cant triust anyone to look after things these days )-:
So last Friday, I read this article in the morning:

Some of the world’s wealthiest people have sold more than $3 billion of stakes in their major holdings since August, diversifying their fortunes as stock markets rebounded. ...

... In the week ended Sept. 11, insiders disclosed selling $473 million of shares, while buying only about $9.5 million.

and I think, hmmm... sounds like smart money is concerned about the future.

Then the news of RBG passing happens after markets closed for the weekend. I think this article sums it up:

Markets kicked off a new trading week in a risk-off mode, with the U.S. dollar rising, stocks selling off and gold prices plunging. It’s hard to point to just one single reason why this is happening, notes BBH Global Currency Strategy. “[There are] rising viral numbers in Europe, rising hard Brexit risks, softening recoveries in the major economies, rising political risk in the U.S., and a negative report on the global banking sector. Some of these drivers have been present for weeks, if not months, but the confluence of so many negative factors has been too much for equity markets to ignore,” says BBH. The big new political headline the markets are digesting is the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday, which is creating a lot of volatility. “The most direct impact is likely to be further delays in the stimulus package. Indeed, we think it has become less likely that a deal comes before the election, as the Republican-led Senate appears to be marshaling all its forces now into pushing through a replacement for Justice Ginsburg,” BBH writes. The U.S. dollar, in the meantime, is making gains with the DXY last trading at $93.60, up 0.73% on the day. “With so much uncertainty, no wonder the markets are taking some profits now and moving to the sidelines with 43 days left until the election.”

all those negative factors listed and significant share selling by insiders should be supportive of metals ...........
Starting to look like control has been regained )-:
Looks like Citibank agrees with you.

After dropping to a two-month low this week, gold could climb back above $2,000 an ounce and hit new record highs before the year-end as the U.S. election risk remains underpriced in the precious metals space, according to a report published by Citigroup Inc.

Uncertainty surrounding the November 3rd U.S. election, including potentially contested results, could “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” Citi analysts wrote in a quarterly commodities outlook.
Considering all the uncertainty around the election, Citi noted it could be “an extraordinary catalyst” for gold during the fourth quarter.

“That is one reason why we expect gold prices to hit fresh records before year-end,” Citi said.

Negotiations on a second stimulus bill for the USA are all but dead. News hit this afternoon and markets are tanking. Curiously, the dollar index is spiking. Not sure why. The economy is going to redline without support.
Looks like the metals are on sale again even as the dollar is slumping. US stock market is just stupid drunk right now. At some point reality is going to reassert itself I think.
Just seems wrong that crypto's and bitcoin in particular, are behaving as gold should be ......
If its so important to hide the debasement of fiat, why are the crypto's not getting some 'special attention' too ?
Maybe because their is no bullion bank cartel in control of the trading mechanisms?
And crypto's take on the role of gold ............

I'm still 'all in' though and happy with the current price, which is still better than when I sold some in March for project funding.
Decentralized financing is all the rage now, and not just with BTC. The trend seems to be giving crypto more wind in its sails, besides all the reasons which already existed.

I'm watching one called Aave now.
Seems like gold and silver are trending back up again. Can gold break through $1900/toz for good this time? Investment markets are soooo irrational these days.
Gold moved quickly and smoothly to $1940 today.
Its not uncommon for month end / year end to get beaten down, so possibly the suppression will lift slightly for a few days.
As to where they want pog, its been $1900 for a while ......
... Goldman Sachs analysts, in a research report published Tuesday, reiterated their bullish forecast for silver.

The bank sees prices rising as high as $33 an ounce as U.S. President Joe Biden moves forward with a plan to increase alternative renewable energy production.

It may not need anything like the buying that GS suggests
If a relatively small number buy paper promises and insist on delivery, the manipulation is fully revealed .....

However we've seen this kind of action in gold and so far, they have covered it.
The controllers aren't stupid and will have brainstormed multiple strategies to see off the reddit crowd.

Now where is that black swan ?:cautious:
Thursday, in its annual report, the LMBA said that 38 market analysts participated in this year's forecast survey. Gold prices are expected to average $1,973.80 an ounce, up 11% from the 2020 average. However, the outlook is only a modest 4.5% increase compared to the average price seen in the first half of January.

"Gold is expected to be subjected to a high level of volatility in 2021, with the widest forecasts predicting a high/low range of $1,192 compared to $780 in 2020," the LBMA said in the report.

With the gold market expected to be relatively tame through 2021, the LBMA said it expects all eyes to be on silver. Precious metals analysts expect silver prices to average $28.50 an ounce this year, an increase of 38% from the 2020 average price and up 8% from the average price since the first half of January.

The volatility seen in the silver market this past week could foreshadow the price action through the rest of the year.

"Silver is undoubtedly the star of the show," the LBMA said. "Silver is forecast to be the best-performing metal in 2021, but with a trading range of $38.5, nearly five times its range forecast last year, it looks as if it's in for a real rollercoaster ride in 2021."

Jpow/Fed letting inflation fears run a bit is causing a bit of market turmoil. Metals are on sale again.
Gold a year ago was $1500 and now is around $1700

That pesky bitcoin was $5000 a year ago and now is around $55000


Glad Im all in then :cautious:

The fact that I am up from my initial purchases ( in 2012 ) is still somehow comforting ............
And no one even commented .....

Financial year end / 1st quarter end and gold/silver had to be pushed down below that all important number so the short big boys could cover their asses

And they didnt even have the decency to keep it down so it could look like there were other technical reasons for the price movements.

I reckon a pretty simple buy/sell strategy would to be to buy just before quarter end and sell a week or so after......
Looks like the metals are breaking out a bit (finally). I guess we'll see if gold can power past 1900 or even 2000 and make new all time highs. Silver has a good bit of room to go to get back to all time high territory.
CME lowers bond margins for gold, silver, platinum, and more

... the margin for gold is down 10% and silver margins have dropped down 9.2%. ...

On the intraday chart below you can see that the price was moving higher well before the news hit the wires. When the official release did take place by the time the major publications caught wind of the story it gave gold futures a second wind to push higher. This morning the momentum has continued and $1820/oz has been breached. One thing that is clear from the volume histogram is the fact that the average volume in the European session is higher than usual.

My first (cynical) reaction was that TPTB must be embarrassed by the disconnect between physical and paper shiny. Then I considered this might be a ploy to make shiny more attractive vs. cryptos (which I think is raising legit concerns amongst the money peoples).

But then it occurs to me that this is more likely an effort to keep the paper markets from having a disorderly disconnect - to avoid a complete breakdown/failure. Could this be portending a long awaited short squeeze?
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