The day's price movements

rblong2us

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pmbug

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I log in, see post saying gold up, check chart, see gold went straight down over the last ten minutes or so. Damn @rblong2us , you scary!
 

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rblong2us

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Hmmm
gold in £sterling looks like it just spiked to an ATH of £1564 /oz
It popped £50 in the small wee hours and is now down £30 as the boyz got their early morning calls and rushed back to the office.
What is going on in forex and why the move to US$ when they are all broken ?
Perhaps its only obvious to us bugs and RoW believs that US$ is the 'safe place' ?
I should be pleased with £ gold price but it doesnt feel good right now.

Is it time to sell gold and buy silver ?
 

pmbug

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The Fed is raising rates. That is causing the dollar to strengthen against other currencies that aren't/(or can't) raising/(raise) rates fast enough to maintain parity.

While gold might be ATH in Sterling, it's down to ~$1630 in dollars - far below what it was a couple of months ago. From what I read while skimming headlines, it looks like institutional traders (hedge funds, pension funds, etc.) are buying bonds right now. I would think if the market gets whispers that the Fed or banks are in trouble (can't contain inflation or manage debt with rising rates), gold might catch a bid from these folks to mitigate risk. But right now, it looks like no one (aside from bugs and possibly central banks) is really interested in gold.
 

Au-Myn

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I hear you on the "banks are in trouble" scenario. A matter if when one bank starts the domino effect.

Au still hurting after that High Pole warning on this 3x30 reversal Point & Figure chart. A High Pole is a buy signal with three or more movements (X's) above the prior high and retracements over 50%. High Poles at Bearish Resistance lines are considered bearish.
Au 30.png
 
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Au-Myn

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Since I was on the subject of High Poles I thought I would post today's DOW 30 in the form of another Point & Figure chart. This scale is 3 x 400. Highlighted are two High Poles followed buy arrows indicating where the sell signals occurred in the two Bearish Signal (a series of lower tops and lower bottoms) formations. Once again note that both HP's occurred at the Bearish Resistance lines.

indu2.png
 

Lancers32

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Yeah that double top near $2070 looks ominous but we should see a bottom forming sometime fairly soon. Sentiment in the toilet this doesn't mean we can't crash but usually not the way to bet. Favor unleveraged longs. Use stops.
 

pmbug

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With respect to my last post:
...
"One thing about gold is that it's down this year, more or less 8%. It's down a lot less than stocks or bonds. So it has proven to be a source of protecting wealth," Paulson told Bloomberg in a recent interview. "The issue is gold's a hedge against inflation, but while the current inflation rate is high, long-term inflation expectations are still very low. It's like 2.5%. And they haven't really changed while the Fed has been raising interest rates."
...
"As the 10-year yield has gone from 2% to, let's say, 3.6%, inflation expectations still are around 2.5%. So before real rates were negative, now they become positive. So because real rates have become positive, that's really put a cap on gold," Paulson added.

For gold to have a convincing turnaround, the economy needs to start to slow after a slate of aggressive rate hikes. This would force the Fed to pause.

"And then [the Fed] see [it] can't control inflation. Then it's not going to come down to 2%, at best. Maybe they get it down to 4%, 5% or 6%, and then the economy weakens, they have to ease again. And then inflation comes back," Paulson described.

The realization that the Fed is not in control will boost the long-term inflation expectations and move gold higher.

"At that point, long-term inflation expectations will rise. People will not believe the Fed can control it. And then I think gold rises to higher levels," Paulson said.
...

 

Au-Myn

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Yeah that double top near $2070 looks ominous but we should see a bottom forming sometime fairly soon. Sentiment in the toilet this doesn't mean we can't crash but usually not the way to bet. Favor unleveraged longs. Use stops.

I am thinking the same thing. Waiting on a bottoming formation and I ain't getting any younger...😀
 

Lancers32

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I am thinking the same thing. Waiting on a bottoming formation and I ain't getting any younger...😀


Get ya about that age thing this is the third time around for me. The pm complex is yet to prove anything yet.
 

rblong2us

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It’s only work when you have to do it
i am happy to have various projects and don’t seem to have to worry about what time or even what day I start work as there’s no client ,programme or actual budget driving the process .

I reckon I define’retirement’ as the day you can choose what you want to do
The thought of taking up golf or watching tv all day fills me with dread.
 

Lancers32

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It’s only work when you have to do it
i am happy to have various projects and don’t seem to have to worry about what time or even what day I start work as there’s no client ,programme or actual budget driving the process .

I reckon I define’retirement’ as the day you can choose what you want to do
The thought of taking up golf or watching tv all day fills me with dread.

Spelled program wrong you must be from North of here. :cool:
 

pmbug

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Hi @pmbug this ticker is free and worth having, check it out @ GIM if you like...

I've already got some 24 charts for spot prices and the USD index. That ticker can display up to five symbols/values. What would everyone find most interesting?
 

Lancers32

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I've already got some 24 charts for spot prices and the USD index. That ticker can display up to five symbols/values. What would everyone find most interesting?

Goldseek is OK I find that a lot of the prices for assets on Trading View are a day behind.
 

pmbug

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Looks like all markets just shit the bed bigly.
 

rblong2us

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What Is the Difference between "Program" and "Programme"?

For American English:
  • Use "program" for everything.
For British English:
  • Use "program" for anything to do with computers.

    • It is a useful program to delete old files.
      tick.png
    • I taught myself to program in JavaScript.
      tick.png
  • Use "program" when you need a verb.

    • I will program you in for 1 o'clock.
      tick.png
  • Use "programme" for an itinerary, TV show, radio show, or a collection of work projects......
 

rblong2us

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You are right Bug, I didnt need to bite ....
Not used to having the US grammar police on my case
I will reprogramme my reaction to any future provocation :rolleyes:.
 

pmbug

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Goldman Sachs commodity analysts' report:
...
The bank sees a 30% chance of the U.S. central bank engineering a soft landing as the country avoids a recession; this would push gold prices to $1,530 an ounce as 10-year real rates rise slightly higher to 1.7%.

At the same time, Goldman also sees a 30% chance of a recession with substantial rate cuts to zero by 2025. This scenario would see gold prices spike to $2,250 an ounce.

The analysts said they see real rates dropping by 1%, but they would still remain in positive territory.

The worst-case scenario for gold would be if the inflation threat grows, forcing the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. This environment would push gold prices to $1,500 an ounce as real rates rise by another 1.5%. Goldman sees a 20% chance of this happening.

In the fourth scenario, Goldman sees a 20% chance of a recession with limited rates cuts, which would push gold prices back to $2,000 an ounce.

In this scenario, the Fed Funds rate is expected to fall back to 2.5% by 2025 as the central bank balances growth concerns with persistent inflation.
...


30% chance of avoiding a recession? Whoa. What are they smoking?
 

pmbug

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...
Gold prices are seeing some significant momentum early Friday as investors react to the news that the yield on two-year notes rose more than 50 basis points above 10-year yields. This is the most considerable yield curve inversion since the 1980s, which was also the last time the Federal Reserve was this aggressive in tightening interest rates.
...
Many economists have noted that an inversion of the yield curve - the cost of short-term borrowing outpaces long-term costs - has always preceded a recession.

"The threat of a recession is at its highest level in 40 years, and that will continue to support gold prices," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Although markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates through 2023, Hansen said that those expectations could quickly shift as the recession threat materializes.

"Investors are quickly going to realize that the Fed will not be able to get inflation back to its 2% target. We expect to see slower economic growth and inflation between 4% and 5% and this environment will be bullish for gold."
...


So if that is to be believed, gold is popping largely because the market expects a recession which will force a Fed pivot. I think the Fed holds out on the pivot longer than most folk think.
 
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