The day's price movements

Gold was the only asset standing tall in the sea of red on Wednesday morning as stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies plunged. The overall trend in gold has shifted to the bullish side after the precious metal bottomed out at $1,680 at the end of March and started its approach to the $1,900 an ounce level.

JPMorgan pointed out that the retreat in bitcoin coincided with new inflows into gold.

"This suggests that institutional investors appear to be shifting away from bitcoin and back into traditional gold, reversing the trend of the previous two quarters," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in the report.

We'll see if it's really a trend or not. Bitcoin looks like it may have bottomed and is consolidating for the next leg up. Hedge funds, institutions, etc. are chasing yield. TPTB won't let gold run unabated, so I have to think that when Bitcoin begins it's next leg back up, it's going to attract the yield chasers again.
One-day swings of 31%. A slump amid a jump in U.S. inflation. Ever more critical regulatory scrutiny. Bitcoin delivered all of these in the past few days, undermining its claimed role as a portfolio hedge rivaling gold.
“For all of 2020 and pretty much up until April, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset, so it wasn’t hard to say it was an inflationary hedge given all the stimulus that keeps getting pumped into the global economy,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst with Oanda Corp. “This week’s crypto plunge and rebound was a wake-up call. Bitcoin will still act like a leveraged risk-on trade and not a proper inflation hedge.”
Bitcoin volatility rising as gold's drops

Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility is far higher than that of gold and currently pulling away. ...

Gold, meanwhile, is heading for a third weekly gain, bolstered by a weaker dollar and wavering Treasury yields, which boost the allure of non-interest-bearing bullion. It’s also benefiting from the crypto crash, according to Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central Pte.

I know Bitcoin was getting a lot of interest from institutional investors before 'Black Wednesday'. I wonder how much gold is benefitting from institutional investor interest after the crypto market crater.
Well from a low of $1700 at quarter end (ie end of March) weve seen a steady climb of $200 in around 7 weeks.
Bitcoin for maximum adreneline, Gold for a good nights sleep ...........

Yeah' perhaps it is a generational thing (-;
Blimey ! gold down US$ 100 in under a week and not much comment anywhere .............

Hopefully we get ignored when it goes up in similar fashion
Well, if Basel 3 is a real thing, I expect some volatility ahead of the July and Jan deadlines. I don't know exactly how this is going to play out but it would seem that some bank trading desks need to liquidate short positions. Maybe they are getting some help to do that.

Then again, maybe folks are moving away from the paper markets to the physical. I wonder what the trading volume looks like.

The spot chart looked funny yesterday - going flat for several hours like no one was trading.
Hmm half year end and Basel 3 in a few days time ...........

Yes the two combined could be something the short holders would be very pleased to see prices down for.
Looks like we are through the low that we might expect from half year end and any Basel 3 requirements ....
Looks like metals are on sale (if you can find any without ridiculous premiums).
Hopefully the weak hands are gone as a result of this sudden selloff and when taper tantrums erupt, the metals are much less effected by the 'sell everything' mentality of the herd.

But as long as the futures markets are so easily played, we must remain patient.
Am I right in thinking that silver has suffered more from the recent beat down ? GSR was 65, now 75
Its small beer compared to the 124 - 70 move in the opposite direction but why might they have done this ?
What does it tell us ?
Hey Chigg, I'm still around 25% down on my silver purchase from 10 years ago .......
Been paying storage and insurance fees ever since :cry:

I see it as training in detachment rather than suffering :)

There have been times when I considered selling it and putting the money into crypto
I will advise all here when I do this, as it will signal a great time to sell crypto and buy silver :sneaky:
If it bumped up to 2000-30 an ounce I would be real tempted to sell out right now. One reason is I've had a bad case of want to buy a boat fever for about 3 months and I can't seem to shake it.
... I've had a bad case of want to buy a boat fever for about 3 months ...
You know that's an accident waiting to happen. So much shiny lost to the depths. ;)
The nonsense of the last 18 months has caused a lot of thinking and re prioritising ....
Is it now the time to spend the rainy day money and if it is, what do we spend it on ?
How long will we be around for ? Fun now or survival later ............

Im tempted to say fukk it and buy the toys but it seems that lots of others are having similar thoughts and prices are waay up.
Do we wait for the great die off that many predict and get lots for our shiny ?

This does require surviving though and a winnebago may not be much use when fuel and spares are not available .....
Perhaps we spend on getting healthy/ staying healthy ? This would include mental health though and that requires toys :)
Your right rb, boats sales have been at record highs the last 18 months. So no deals.
Growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. central bank monetary policy prompted some hedge funds to jump back into the gold market, according to analysts looking at the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said recently that he expects the central bank to release its plans regarding reducing its monthly bond purchases by the end of the year. Some analysts have said that it is improbable any road map will be released later this month, and this delay has provided some initial support for gold.

"Our economists believe that [Friday's] labor market report will influence the U.S. Fed and consider it unlikely that so-called tapering will be announced either at the upcoming meeting on 21/22 September or at the following meeting in early November," said Daniel Briesemann, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank.

The CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Aug. 24 showed money managers increased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 9,919 contracts to 136,555. At the same time, short positions rose by 3,686 contracts to 54,878.

Gold's net length now stands at 81,677 contracts, up 8% from the previous week. Renewed interest in gold helped push prices to $1,820 an ounce, nearly a one-month high.

"After aggressively increasing long gold exposure last week, money managers again hiked their net long holdings as prices continued to migrated into $1,800/oz territory. Investors also grew their long positions in response to signals coming from Fed Chair Powell, which suggested that the US central bank is tilting policy emphasis toward full employment and that it has no major inflation concerns, suggesting no material removal of stimulus," said commodity analysts at TD Securities. "However, while the market believed that the Fed may tolerate temporary inflation spikes and rates slid lower, some money managers added short exposure nonetheless."

While hedge funds continue to see value in gold, the silver market remains relatively lackluster. However, some analysts note that silver has more bullish potential.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures increased by 914 contracts to 49,008. At the same time, short positions dropped by 735 contracts to 36,735.

Silver's net length stands at 12,273 contracts, up 15% from the previous week. During the survey period, silver prices push above resistance at $24 an ounce.

The taper talk was never (IMO) going to become reality. We're facing another Covid headwind. brrrt
It's long past due for gold to move up a bit. I wonder how much disconnect there is now between the paper and physical markets and what the trade volume looks like in the paper markets. Since gold has been largely range bound for so long, I suspect trading volume was down and folks were either buying physical or other things. But I haven't really been paying attention so I could be very wrong.
Had a nice run lately. Looks like the only thing that can stop this upswing is me buying in. 🤑
... the only thing that can stop this upswing is me buying in.
If Russia backs off Ukraine and the present conflict ends, I could see metals tanking while stocks jump.

I suspect that isn't going to happen though. This looks to get a lot messier before anything gets resolved.
If Russia backs off Ukraine and the present conflict ends, I could see metals tanking while stocks jump.

I suspect that isn't going to happen though. This looks to get a lot messier before anything gets resolved.

I agree. But the chances for things escalating are pretty high right now and some nato members would seem to be desparate for a distraction
Its beginning to look like Putin's been caught in a loose-loose situation ......
Well ... Shit. Putin has apparently gone insane.
If Russia was screwing up Mexico like the west has done to Ukraine, the US would be doing a lot more about it than Putin is doing.
Doesn’t make it right though …..
I'm just assuming it's PPT working magic to keep markets calm.
Wheres the PPT now ?

Seriously though, The world deciding to gang up on Russia seems ill thought through.
The potential for blowback is enormous and the sudden stop of EVERYTHING coming out of Russia and Ukrane will massively impact and hurt everyone, except perhaps those countries that continue to trade with Russia .......

All looks good for the metals though but not great for those who get priced out of eating normal food and keeping warm.

Do we now have to anticipate unrelible internet as the electronic/cyber war gets going ?

If so then good fortune to all here and hopefully see you on the other side
How hard will they defend the ATH in gold ?

The Bullionvault 5 year chart shows ATH at $2036 on the 27th July 2020
Bullionvault just showed $2038 on their daily chart ( updared every few seconds )

The bigger the timeframe the more the peaks and troughs get averaged out so were probably not at ATH but we must be close

A bit of a look around suggests $2067 -
You would think with Covid, supply chain issues, monetary inflation and now war disrupting the oil markets that central banks might be a bit challenged enough to conduct monetary policy balancing their various priorities. The Fed has declared that they are going to shut down the brrrt. Where is the juice going to come from to keep a lid on gold? I worry that we might be primed for another MFGlobal situation to scare hedge funds and institutional investors (pension funds, etc.) from buying paper/digital gold.
Might be the catalyst that exposes the paper gold scam and finally a chance for physical gold to find its real market value ?
Possibly helped by Russian gold being barred from western markets ...........
And Russia selling desparately needed products for gold cos USD, GBP and Euro are no use to them ?
I don't have a good perspective on the scale of the markets involved, but I think China is eager to trade with Russia for things they can no longer sell to Europe (for a good discount I'm sure). Whether they can make up for 100% of the loss of the Eurozone markets I don't know (and kind of doubt).
Anyone else surprised that gold hasn't risen further? Seems like all the levers for upward pressure are in play, but gold just puts along.
Well this guy is a ray of sunshine...

With rising interest rates, disrupted global supply chains, and aggregate demand expected to shrink, investors can expect risk assets like stocks and cryptos, as well as traditional safe haven plays like gold to take a hit this year, said Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass.

"This is an environment where you have nowhere to hide. You can't buy stocks, you can't buy gold, you can't buy Bitcoin," Peccatiello told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
While gold may enjoy some tailwinds later in the year, the risks are to the downside for the metal in the foreseeable future, he said.

"The problem is that inflation expectations are starting to become de-anchored. We are starting to have traders pricing in a meaningful probability that inflation will print above 5% over the next five years. If you are a policymaker, you don't like that," he said. "I would argue we're at the point where if inflation becomes sticky high, then policymakers are going to react in a non-linear fashion. They're going to really make sure that rates are hiked to much higher levels, and that hurts gold."

I thought gold was supposed to be a traditional haven against inflation. Sure isn't acting like one right now.
Oh snap! Now I see the violence inherent in the system...

The second suppressing driver has been speculation over what Russia might do with its gold reserves - one of the few assets that remained untouched by the Western sanctions introduced against Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

"Given that a substantial proportion of Russia's assets have been frozen, there's always the possibility some of the country's gold – understood to be worth around $140 billion – could be sold to make payments," Smith said.

The Western world's sanctions policy is trying to force Russia to sell their gold.
That ought to work out well for the western world ……

they could even use some of it to buy energy and food 🤣
a $50 up day
I'll take it :)

As nothing makes sense anymore, I will simply go to bed feeling somewhat wealthier ........
Inflation numbers came out today higher than expected. I guess there are still a few peeps who see gold as an inflation hedge.
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