The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Crypto train is starting to choo choo. Hope some of you got your feet wet back when I posted the getting started primer. If not, it's not too late to jump in. Barring a hard landing that sinks all boats, crypto looks to (at least) double from today's position by year end. $.02 FWIW

I posted that 2 weeks ago. BTC traded between 49k and 52k that day. It's now at 61k - up roughly 20% since that post.
 
Gold at 2,033, yet miners have fallen to the same price they were at when gold bottomed at $1,820 in October '23. Gold has gone up $200, yet miners are selling off. I've never seen this before in the gold market, truly baffling.
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Gold at 2,033, yet miners have fallen to the same price they were at when gold bottomed at $1,820 in October '23. Gold has gone up $200, yet miners are selling off. I've never seen this before in the gold market, truly baffling.
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You would think that 200 an oz would be enough to offset their higher input costs.
NEM closing in on 2017 lows at around 28. If that doesn't hold then what? 2015 lows of 14.50?
For now I'm just not buying anything. If the US officially goes into recession in the next few months and markets sell off does it take metals down with it? I have no idea but I figure I put enough money into the space for now. If things do turn around there will be plenty of time to get on board and add to positions.
 
Gold at 2,033, yet miners have fallen to the same price they were at when gold bottomed at $1,820 in October '23. Gold has gone up $200, yet miners are selling off. I've never seen this before in the gold market, truly baffling.
View attachment 12190

Yeah, it's something, isn't it? Someone is way wrong here.
 
US inflation report came in cooler than expected. Jobless claims came in higher than expected. Markets think this the Fed will be more inclined to cut rates. I expect the Fed will continue to hold the line for more data.
 
Ray Dalio says US stock market does not look like a bubble:
...
I define a bubble market as one that has a combination of the following in high degrees:
  1. High prices relative to traditional measures of value (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
  2. Unsustainable conditions (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that that growth can’t be sustained).
  3. Many new and naïve buyers who were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot, so it’s perceived as a hot market.
  4. Broad bullish sentiment.
  5. A high percentage of purchases being financed by debt.
  6. A lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).
I apply these criteria to all markets to see if they’re in bubbles. When I look at the US stock market using these criteria (see the chart below), it—and even some of the parts that have rallied the most and gotten media attention—doesn’t look very bubbly. ...

 
i.e., comon down... the water's fine... meanwhile he's heading for the door....

I keep hearing doom talk, which probably means there is enough cash on the sidelines already to fuel a "rip your face off" rally. They pumped a ridiculous amount of cash into this system, that always leaves the possibility of ridiculous counterintuitive flows. Think unstable system, just be prepared for anything.

+ the general internutz has rarely calls a crash correctly.
 
I keep hearing doom talk, which probably means there is enough cash on the sidelines already to fuel a "rip your face off" rally. They pumped a ridiculous amount of cash into this system, that always leaves the possibility of ridiculous counterintuitive flows. Think unstable system, just be prepared for anything.

+ the general internutz has rarely calls a crash correctly.
All that cash swashing about like water in a tub doesn't make the market more valuable.

The chickens still come home to roost.

I think after Trump wins they'll pull the plug on the market once he resides in the WH.

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There is NO cash without debt. And new debt creation via home loans and auto loans, etc is crashing. The government is creating new huge amounts of debt, however. So :unsure:
 
I keep hearing doom talk, which probably means there is enough cash on the sidelines already to fuel a "rip your face off" rally. They pumped a ridiculous amount of cash into this system, that always leaves the possibility of ridiculous counterintuitive flows. Think unstable system, just be prepared for anything.

+ the general internutz has rarely calls a crash correctly.

The old Kondratieff, Crack Up Boom. I always thought we need the earthquake and then get a boom.
 
There is NO cash without debt. And new debt creation via home loans and auto loans, etc is crashing. The government is creating new huge amounts of debt, however. So :unsure:

Government debt creates cash, private debt levers it up. There will be some multiple of the base cash floating around, even @ a depressed private loan creation rate. IMO it will be hot and nervous, easier to be wrong @ these rates.
 
20754 Gold contracts delivered in Feb... pretty chunky. Not that it matters anymore, hell, just print up some more gold and send it right over!
 
Government debt creates cash, private debt levers it up. There will be some multiple of the base cash floating around, even @ a depressed private loan creation rate. IMO it will be hot and nervous, easier to be wrong @ these rates.

I disagree. If you walk into a bank and get a Million dollar loan they create most of that from thin air. Whoever you go spend that money on, has received new cash that didn't exist yesterday.
 
If I had mad photoshop skills, I would modify this:

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with JPow's head and a caption that says, "Reserves got nothing to do with it"
 
My Weekend Trend Trader system is holding MacroGenics (MGNX) with a gain of 150.52%. [Weekly chart shown.]

[Trailing stops are the bomb.]

I was recently in a discussion with a very bright young man. He described a system he was thinking of where he has an entry criteria so he buys the asset and then sells it when it goes up 50%. That kind of talk "triggers" me a little. Instead, cut your losses and let your winners run. Classic great advice.

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