The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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It's not a rate cut persey. Operation Twist or Reverse Twist or whatever. I think this means that the bond market was no longer playing the FED game. They wanted short-term rates down but were NOT getting it. So they are wanting to go all Japan buying up short term Treasuries. But they also said they want OUT of longer-term debt because they know they would take massive loses on all of it.
 
I disagree. If you walk into a bank and get a Million dollar loan they create most of that from thin air. Whoever you go spend that money on, has received new cash that didn't exist yesterday.

Most of it, that's the leverage it up part. Basically what I said...
 
Astonishingly, the reserve requirement was changed to 0%. So, yeah.

Banking system go boom? How to setup terminal bank runs 101.

If you had real journalists, and not propagandists, this should be headline news,

FFS, what is wrong with the world?

{sigh}
 
Nice pop today with many miners getting above the 20 dma. If they close above on Monday and confirm the move then I may put some capital to work.
Nice move on EXK. Broke out of that yellow channel which it's been in since last July. Also moved strongly above the 20 on good volume. Still a ways to go to break the long term downtrend but could definitely be a nice trade up to that 2.50-3.00 level
Screen Shot 2024-03-01 at 2.18.00 PM.png
 
Sadly, it is old news.


Reserve Requirements​

As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.
 
Sadly, it is old news.
...

I wrote an article highlighting the folly of it all:

 
Looks like the starting gun just went off. Finally off to the races after 3.5 years?
 
Potato...potaato It's money creation

Well, no, not really. More base money was going into the system via government lending that has, so far, been minimally leveraged up by the private system. This leaves a lot of headroom for the private system to go way further if the conditions shift. AKA Rocket fuel for a crack up boom. If it was all private leverage, we'd be toward the end of the leash. So... given all the crash calls and the background, it is possible this is the start of a strong move into a significant top.

Not a forecast, just one way this MIGHT play.
 
Sadly, it is old news.


Reserve Requirements​

As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.

Is that still in play? FFS. This is third world stuff!
 
Yes we get it. Please Sir can I have another beating? Please

The universe, on balance, is an endless series of beatings. Enjoy the brief cessation when it arrives, or learn to love being whipped like a redheaded stepchild.

Speaking of judges, oh phaggitit, you wouldn't believe me anyway....

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMzNzbW5icGQ0YmEzcnkwdmtrYzB3bDRuNmJtdDdkcW0wNXp5NjI4dCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/pANnRuqZneOiVGL2kU/giphy.gif
 
Gold the week before last had a minor capitulation week turn around, this week we hit the top of the range. Next week needs to be a breakout in the face of those that will be selling here. So far it's safest to assume range bound until we see a weekly close over 2100. The volume is about the same as the last time we tapped this ceiling.
 
The encouraging thing about last week is that the price and volume came late in the week and the close is very near the 2100 level. Momentum is on the bulls side going into next week.
 
The encouraging thing about last week is that the price and volume came late in the week and the close is very near the 2100 level. Momentum is on the bulls side going into next week.
Also didn't hurt that the two days were respective monthly and weekly closes. Charts are looking good. I'm sure we will continue to suffer beatdowns... until we don't.
 
A lot of charting packages move that bar into March simply because of the closing date, so it doesn't look as good as perhaps it deserves to. The upside is that on those charts both of the last two months look like minor capitulation months, long tails testing 2000 with closes over 2050.

The general volume trend has been down to sideways since mid 2019, it would be good to see that trend turn, we have to have just about pushed that pig through the snake.

2020 to date is looking like a continuation consolidation pattern on the monthly. In many ways it looks like the Feb 05 area when we broke the mid 400's for the last time and eventually went 4x with a half-time break.

If history is to rhyme it means ~4k, financial crisis, reaction low, liquidity blow off into ~8K, major corrective phase.

There's a mud map to check up on in 20 years!
 
The fed repo program is ending March 11th so that could be a factor on liquidity going forward. My Guess is Powell is going to be grilled this week coming up and more info will come out then and hopefully we can get an idea of how this could impact the markets. .
 
The beatdowns will continue until market sentiment improves.
Agreed. I think there are a lot of bugs out there just waiting for the market to show signs of life - even a twitch will do it. For silver that will be when we get into the $26-30 zone. This will be a place where a lot of tired bag holders dump, looking for a place to get out in one piece. Once this sorts itself out, and silver clears $30, it should be game on.
 
Regarding sentiment Lance Lewis who used to work for Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund said late last week that the HGSI was insanely high while the miners were going down. He regards that as a warning sign for the bulls.
 
Agreed. I think there are a lot of bugs out there just waiting for the market to show signs of life - even a twitch will do it. For silver that will be when we get into the $26-30 zone. This will be a place where a lot of tired bag holders dump, looking for a place to get out in one piece. Once this sorts itself out, and silver clears $30, it should be game on.

Last quarter was the highest USD close for a quarter, period. Now we need volume to come back.

COMEX_DL:GC1! Chart Image by ZedTheHun
 
One of the saner gold friendly commentators...



:p Speaking of sane commentators. It's the Baloney Pony.


 
I'd like someone to comment and explain on the FED comments that lit the spark Friday. What the heck is Operation Reverse Twist and what this would do. Is it quantitative easing and it looks like they are trying to lower short-term rates, will it and what will it mean for longer term rates.
 
:p Speaking of sane commentators. It's the Baloney Pony.

{sigh}

So many loons in the goldbug space, so easy to tar us with that brush...

I said it years ago, I reckon Goldman is funding Lemetropole, and similar, just to put conservative investors off the gold market.

You know what... it's been working.

{sigh} LOL {sigh}... FFS!!!!!!
 
Strong on the open down here... nice green. Gold stocks up 20x the index, % at the moment. A sight for sore eyes.
 
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