The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Crackup boom? Or are they actually getting away with it? Seems unlikely, as does an immediate crash.

There may be "breakouts" but this obviously isn't real growth. I think all this doom spending and breakouts are the crack up boom or the start of hyper-inflation. People are starting to spend the money as fast as they can and piling on debt with no intention to pay it back.
 
I'd like someone to comment and explain on the FED comments that lit the spark Friday. What the heck is Operation Reverse Twist and what this would do. Is it quantitative easing and it looks like they are trying to lower short-term rates, will it and what will it mean for longer term rates.
I can't speak to it with any depth of understanding, but one point I took from it is that this action may uninvert the yield curve, which often usher's in a formal recession. Maybe the thought is that leads to a correction in stonks, which leads money flows toward gold and PMs?
 
$ 2106, a new ath ?
seems worthy of a mention .........

Still off ath in UK£ but I'll take it :)

ath was $ 2135 or $ 2146 depending on, eerrr I dunno, wot google offered for 3rd Dec last year

I saw $2119 on bullionvault chart earlier

LMBA auction price today hit ath though .........


possibly why I was the only one to notice :rolleyes:
 
I'd like someone to comment and explain on the FED comments that lit the spark Friday. What the heck is Operation Reverse Twist and what this would do. Is it quantitative easing and it looks like they are trying to lower short-term rates, will it and what will it mean for longer term rates.

I just read the ZH report on this. It sounds like the Fed wants to relieve some pressure on the banks and short dated treasury market. It doesn't sound like it is QE or QT necessarily. That will depending upon the balance of the selling vs. buying they want to do.

It is confusing to me though. The long dated MBS they want to sell sound like the "underwater in the high interest rate environment" assets that banks were borrowing against at par in the BTFP. Without a BTFP, I don't see why banks (or anyone else) would want to buy them. I may have misunderstood something fundamental here though.
 
Gold Daily - So that's two new consecutive all-time high closes in gold, third one is the charm? Where is Jim when you need him?

GC1!_2024-03-05_07-32-08.png
 
I don't follow Armstrong religiously but he says Gold up through late May. FWIW. Downside risk is 10% give or take on the mining indices etf's etc. Some stocks much more.
 
Damn near everything I buy or have to pay for like insurance and the like utilities etc have doubled in the past 4 years. Food is crazy.

Yup, serious inflation. Same down here!

Hyper is when the price doubles by the time you get from the back of the checkout cue to the front. The first case study we looked at in economics was Brazil, hitting 76,000%. I remembered thinking, how does a retailer even handle that? Buy the time you order new stock, it cost more than you made selling it. Totally unworkable environment! That's hyper, when it is just plain unworkable.
 
At this point, they only way crypto goes to zero is if the Bitcoin network crashes or suffers a 51% attack. I don't see it otherwise.
 
I see all of these guys on X who while bullish were looking for one more slam in the metals before the big move up. So of course they pat themselves on the back when contrary to their own posts the metals and miners move higher. Now they are looking for a correction. Least expected from here is a rip your face off rally. Bullish sentiment in a market coming off a bottom after a protracted decline is bullish. Stocks 1982.
 
The enemies have long studied human emotions and understand them quite well. Plus, that's just how markets work, you have to have most people on the wrong side to build momentum.

As Martin Armstrong shows it as a Pendulum.
 
I see all of these guys on X who while bullish were looking for one more slam in the metals before the big move up. So of course they pat themselves on the back when contrary to their own posts the metals and miners move higher. Now they are looking for a correction. Least expected from here is a rip your face off rally. Bullish sentiment in a market coming off a bottom after a protracted decline is bullish. Stocks 1982.
I’m more or less looking at a financial crash worse than 2008/9 coming soon. Big question is wether miners tank with the markets or rip harder right away.
Personally this little bump is a head fake. There’s been nothing significant to ignite the Mega-rally just yet.
 
sElection year. No evidence of crash yet. A pullback would be nice.

[Trends don't last forever. But until they end... (best to presume they continue.)]

[IMHO]

[For you phone guys, this is weekly S&P 500 chart. Also, this is not a political post, though I mentioned it is a (s)Election year. This is a post about markets.]

SPX_2024-03-05_21-41-30.png
 
I'm surprised to see gold and silver popping right after JPow once again told markets that rate cuts were not imminent.
 
Private sector job growth improved during February though growth was slightly less than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added 140,000 positions for the month, an increase from the upwardly revised 111,000 in January but a bit below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000.

Job gains came across multiple areas, led by leisure and hospitality with 41,000 and construction, which added 28,000 positions. Other industries showing solid gains included trade, transportation and utilities (24,000), finance (17,000), and the other services category (14,000).

Of the total, 110,000 came from the services sector while goods producers added 30,000. Growth was concentrated among larger companies, as establishments with fewer than 50 employees contributed just 13,000 to the total.
...


Did the metals rise because of expectations that this news would indicate imminent rate cuts? I don't think this news is significant enough to warrant that analysis.
 
Posting this as a reminder to myself not to get shaken out. GDX during the 2016 rally.


2016-GDXrun.png


Also worth noting, GDX went up roughly 61% in 2 months. We are 1 week in this current rally. If this rally follows the same strong trajectory as the 2016 rally, we're looking at $42 GDX by May 1.
 
The gold price is hitting all-time highs, but there is still scant interest in junior miners, noted JuniorMinerJunky, David Erfle.

On Wednesday Erfle recorded the inaugural show Digging Deep, hosted by Kitco correspondent Paul Harris at PDAC in Toronto.

PDAC is mining largest annual get together. Over 23,000 delegates attended last year's show.

Erfle noted the lack of love junior miners are attracting despite precious metals jumping higher.

"You could pretty much roll bowling balls down the aisle," said Erfle noting the lack of retail investors dropping by the company booths. "There wasn't that many people. I was walking around talking to companies at their booths [asking] them 'how many retail investors have come up to ask you about your company?' Many said one or two or none."
...


It's a sign of the times I guess. Gold is hitting all time highs while Wall Street sentiment is anywhere from indifferent to negative. Gold is only loved by central banks and retail (Main Street - China and India) buying.

If the Fed really does change the narrative on cutting rates this year, gold is likely going to soar when Wall Street sentiment changes.
 
US stock market could get whipped by NVDA this week:
...
Nvidia stock is pulling back on Friday in what seems quite necessary since the stock has been on the warpath north all year. Just on Thursday, NVDA stock reached an all-time high of $927.67, reaching a $2.3 trillion market cap. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been overbought for some time, which typically requires a period of consolidation, otherwise known as a cooling-off period.

Nvidia's intraday low was at $865. If it drops below here, both $840 and $800 are the next levels to watch. March 4 and March 5 experienced bottoms near $840, while $800 buffered the price action from February 26 through March 1, acting as both resistance and support. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is also gunning for the $800 level, which provides its with more significance. Otherwise, a major pullback could send NVDA stock back to retouch the top of the upper trendline at $730 that held Nvidia stock down from 2020 through February of this year.
...

 
FWIW:

:silver:
...

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook​


Silver retreated during the day, below the March 7 daily close of $24.31, which could sponsor a leg down if sellers push the prices lower. However, buyers are keeping Silver’s price above the latter, and if they reclaim the $24.50 level, that could push XAG/USD to re-test $24.63, ahead of $25.00.

On the flip side, if sellers drag Silver’s prices below $24.31, XAG/USD could dive to $24.00. A breach of the latter will expose the March 6 low of $23.57, followed by the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving average (DMA) at $23.27.
...


:gold:
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Gold price technical outlook​


Gold broke above the upper limit of the ascending regression channel coming from October and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart rose to its highest level since August 2020 above 80, highlighting extremely overbought conditions. Although it might be risky to bet against Gold in the current market environment, investors could look for opportunities to liquidate their long positions. The $2,140 level (former record-high) aligns as first support before $2,120 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and $2,100 (psychological level, midpoint of the ascending channel).

It’s difficult to set bullish targets for XAU/USD because it’s trading in uncharted territory. On the upside, the $2,200 round level could act as a psychological resistance.
...

 
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