Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.
Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!
Oh that's right, I'd forgotten he'd decided to go short. Things have a way of not working out for him.dpong it looks like Flanagan got whipsawed again. Would have liked to see the metals stay down into the open to add curious to see how the miners do today if we drift lower.
My monthly retirement slow trade system is working.Whole lotta Red today. DOW -600 as of this post.
Futures (finviz.com)
... the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has identified a number
of severe risks to financial stability. These risks may materialise simultaneously, thereby interacting with
each other and mutually amplifying their impact. The probability of tail-risk scenarios materialising has
increased since the beginning of 2022, and has been exacerbated by recent geopolitical developments.
These geopolitical developments impact energy prices and supply, implying a renewed rise in balance
sheet stress for businesses and households. Moreover, higher-than-expected inflation is tightening
financial conditions, which may amplify stress in the financial sector.
A pronounced deterioration in economic activity could lead to a renewed increase in credit risk at a time
when some credit institutions are still in the process of addressing COVID-19 pandemic-related asset
quality issues that have so far been limited due to extensive public support measures. Risks to financial
stability stemming from a sharp fall in asset prices also remain severe. Rising mortgage rates and the
deterioration in debt servicing capacity on account of a decline in real household income could exert
downward pressure on house prices. In turn, this could trigger the materialisation of accumulated
cyclical risks in real estate markets. In addition, the probability of large-scale cyber incidents impacting
the financial system has increased.
Given the increase in systemic risks to financial stability, the ESRB considers it necessary for private
sector institutions, market participants and relevant authorities to continue to prepare for materialisation
of tail-risk scenarios. ...
Haven't looked at market news this morning, but my first guess would be markets reacting to potential UK contagion fears.
For the metal heads FWIW. Armstrong's Socrates was looking for a close in Gold by the end of September of $1706 to turn bullish if that does not occur looks for low in December somewhere in the $1500's. Don't know if he means $1501 or $1599. Two shopping days left.
DX down miners flat no follow through Gold and Silver. Makes sense huh?
I noticed that Gold is still trading under the old supports around $1670 make of that what you will but not too bullish. Sentiment is still favorable so we shall see.
Are institutional investors still expecting that the Fed will contain inflation? Because gold should start catching bids once that expectation changes.
No follow through on a bullish day, that is one of the golden rules according to GATA. Just because they are nuts it doesn't make them wrong!
If you look at gold's history it isn't a great inflation hedge. The fact is inflation can be running @ 5% and IF you can get a decent return over 5% without risking the farm then it is a better option than gold. Stagflation or crisis is what gold really needs, so no safe returns over the inflation rate or a crisis in confidence in the government and its management of the currency. I could see inflation falling back and stabilizing at a lower rate while returns suck... basically a stagnant economic outlook and lower but persistent inflation. That is enough... we have very low rates of gold investment right now, a doubling in demand would get us back to average. Just a return to mean will blow the lid off this thing and by definition that has to happen and in fact has to be exceeded at some point.
I think that is the Feds target here, get the Ten year to 4.x% and get inflation down to say 4% ish.
Good luck with that, it looks like a big ask to me.
If it wasn't manipulated....Are institutional investors still expecting that the Fed will contain inflation? Because gold should start catching bids once that expectation changes.
Peterson left the 'cancel culture' world when he said 'no way Jose' to the Canadian Marxists attempting to control language. Trump's moves made financial sense for the US and why wouldn't they? He knows money and business. He studies history as well. He applied tariffs appropriately - remember when Herbert Hoover tried it and he got blamed for the Depression? That's all everyone understood about tariffs, i.e., "They don't work.", but I think he was sabotaged as much as Trump was. Then they got FDR (their guy) in office (1933) whereupon, by design, he confiscated the people's gold as 'collateral' for the fake debt incurred in 1913. He also implemented SS and WWII.Peterson, who basically grew up Democratic, is becoming a stronger and stronger defender of Trump's legacy.
Chaos has yet to arrive.... :shudder:Yeah but Gold is supposed to be a hedge against chaos. Maybe we get serious deflation first I really don't know.
Yeah but Gold is supposed to be a hedge against chaos. Maybe we get serious deflation first I really don't know.
Yep no follow through. Might still get a rally from here though maybe the DX just makes another attempt at the highs falters them goes to 108 or pick your number. I think Murphy played for the Patriots without a helmet that might explain things.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?