The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[savvydon]

I'm SICK!

Will you guys start arguing about summin interesting?

Are you sick because we aren't arguing about summin interesting, or you just happen to be sick and the arguing will be good medicine to help you get better?

(You know, in medicine the history gives you 90% of the needed info)

 

[TheRealZed]

Are you sick because we aren't arguing about summin interesting, or you just happen to be sick and the arguing will be good medicine to help you get better?

(You know, in medicine the history gives you 90% of the needed info)

I'm plain sick and I need the distraction! LOL {cough} LOL {cough}....

Gawd it is dragging on!

{sigh}

 

[Carrion Crow]

I'm plain sick and I need the distraction! LOL {cough} LOL {cough}....

Gawd it is dragging on!

{sigh}

It seems like half the people I know are sick or fighting something. Flu and Strep seem to be the biggest villains. Some poor people have both!
None with COVID...

 

[TheRealZed]

It seems like half the people I know are sick or fighting something. Flu and Strep seem to be the biggest villains. Some poor people have both!
None with COVID...

Not testing +ve for COVID.

Who knows?

I once read that Grand Solar Minimum brought more disease... it seems to be happening!

 

[Carrion Crow]

Not testing +ve for COVID.

Who knows?

I once read that Grand Solar Minimum brought more disease... it seems to be happening!

I had to google what that was:

Taking into account that cosmic-rays and consequently the neutrons produced by them in the atmosphere are in an inverse relationship with the solar activity. We show the possibility of obtention the pandemics occurrence rates considering that they are due to mutations induced by the neutron capture upon the presence of hydrogen in the viral proteins, producing radical changes, an “antigenic-shift”, forming a new type of viral strains...

Great. One more thing.

 

[TheRealZed]

Great. One more thing.

Grand, ain't it!

 

[TheRealZed]

 

[savvydon]

I'm plain sick and I need the distraction! LOL {cough} LOL {cough}....

Gawd it is dragging on!

{sigh}

Hey Z, It fargin amazes me, too. This g-d thing has been dragging forever. But in a way, it is like wishing you were older sooner. Be careful what you wish for, and all that...

FWIW, I still have my permabull glasses on. I think there were some solid pushes down to the lows earlier this year which kind of exhausted selling and the past month or two feels like a solid base is being built. I feel like short, medium, and long term technicals and fundamentals are on the cusp of coming together to give us a nice push up in the metals. I don't know when it is coming but I am glad to see that expectations do not seem to be especially high for the metals right now. Seems like everything is starting to line up. We c...

BTW, tons of influenza here this past month now that it is getting cool and the public is tired hibernating. Seems like viruses are like metals on steroids - there is only so long you can keep the proverbial beach ball submerged before they erupt and make their presence known.

 

[TheRealZed]

First Notice Day 30-11 First Delivery 1-12

One day left before they ask for Decembers metal... should be a big month!

 

[searcher]

I doubt many people in the US will play ball.

They already are. Direct deposit, cc's, paying bills online, etc.

Merchants will be mandated to take the currency of the nation, taxes will be paid in it, companies will be forced to pay in it... etc, etc, etc.

Barter is ALWAYS an option.

See Zed's post above, then look at my first post. Now look at where people live and how they live. They will use whatever medium of exchange the gov deems is official and simply go about their daily lives. And anyone who doesn't go along will become a pariah and won't fare too well.

*Don't want to derail the thread. If anyone wants to talk about this in a different local, I'm in.

 

[pmbug]

Gold prices are modestly higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday and saw the gains come following the release of prepared text of a highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Markets are deeming his remarks as leaning slightly more dovish than expected. February gold was last up $8.50 at $1,772.10 and March silver was up $0.644 at $22.08.

It was a very busy day for U.S. economic data, with the highlight being the speech by Powell this afternoon at the Brookings Institution. In his prepared remarks, Powell said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of tightening as soon as the December meeting. However, he said the Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels “for some time.” Powell added that inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted. ...

Gold price sees modest up-tick on Fed Chair Powell's speech

Senior Technical Analyst Jim Wyckoff prepares investors with an overview of how the markets opened and closed. What moved metal prices? How do the technicals look? By looking at important developments

www.kitco.com

The beatings will slow down a little bit, but continue until morale improves.

 

[pmbug]

...
The U.S. likely added 200,000 new jobs in November, compared to 261,000 in the prior month, according to a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal.

An increase of that size would be the smallest since the end of 2020, but it would still to be too much for the Fed.

Chairman Jerome Powell suggested in a speech on Wednesday the economy only needs to add around 100,000 new jobs a month to soak up all the new workers entering the labor force.

By that measure, the current pace of hiring is far too strong. It’s adding upward pressure on wages and contributing to persistently high inflation.
...

U.S. likely added 200,000 jobs in November, fewest in two years

Businesses are filling fewer open jobs and inflation has started to wane --- but not fast enough for the Federal Reserve. The central bank wants the labor...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Voodoo]

They already are. Direct deposit, cc's, paying bills online, etc.






See Zed's post above, then look at my first post. Now look at where people live and how they live. They will use whatever medium of exchange the gov deems is official and simply go about their daily lives. And anyone who doesn't go along will become a pariah and won't fare too well.

*Don't want to derail the thread. If anyone wants to talk about this in a different local, I'm in.

Those are Far from the same as the new CDBC. Will some people, perhaps even a majority comply, probably. But a good 30-40% will say no way and it will still fail. Look at the uptake when they tried in Nigeria. Complete fail.

 

[Voodoo]

Another important level for Silver this week. I just glanced at my wall and decided to update this Weekly Silver chart. Realized that I screwed it up a bit on the dip (went to intraday peak instead of closing peaks). Need to close the week above $22.02 and I think we will.

View attachment 2978

Well we didn't get the close two weeks ago above this level but we are now above the 38.2% retracement again. Can we get a weekly close above, Yes I think we will now.

Also, means GDXJ is probably running to that $38 H-S indicated level now. One last resistance at 180 day avg IMO.

 

[dpong]

I updated my retirement slow-trade system for the month of November over here:

Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system

The GIM2 crowd may be tired of hearing about my Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system. But since we are on a new (to us) platform, I will explain it a little. It is designed to accommodate the limitations of certain retirement accounts. For example my retirement accounts have restrictions...

www.pmbug.com

 

[TheRealZed]

I updated my retirement slow-trade system for the month of November over here:

Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system

The GIM2 crowd may be tired of hearing about my Monthly Retirement Slow-Trade system. But since we are on a new (to us) platform, I will explain it a little. It is designed to accommodate the limitations of certain retirement accounts. For example my retirement accounts have restrictions...

www.pmbug.com

Work it!

 

[TheRealZed]

I had a fever dream that Elon becomes the first American Ceaser.

WTF

 

[TheRealZed]

Surely Oliver is pulling the trigger on Silver soon. We must be near his mo line.

 

[TheRealZed]

SI - Silver Daily. Looks like a solid breakout from a flag style continuation pattern. Low target looks to be 25.50 over run target looks to be 28.30 odd. That level has some history being the approximate ceiling after the 2020 breakout. Getting past that would be uber bullish. Expect a decent pause at that level if we get there.

 

[TheRealZed]

 

[Goldhedge]

Housing incentives already? Yowser!

 

[TheRealZed]

GSR monthly with the last bull run marked. Looking for a correlation... Scale seems larger this time and starting price differential is bigger.

 

[TheRealZed]

SPX Daily. We hit trend early! Sideways, pull back, down leg or breakout? What next... I'm gonna say we are close to an intermediate top here.

 

[TheRealZed]

Fugging hell, showing old Madoff how to get away clean.

 

[pmbug]

@Zed love your posts with the graphs and comments, but sometimes it's hard to read the fine print to see what data the chart is representing (ie. S&P 500, gold, etc.). If you wouldn't mind adding a short note for that, it would be very helpful for folks like me to fully appreciate what you are sharing.

 

[pmbug]

...
Thursday, the ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 % last month, missing expectations and down from October’s reading of 50.2%. Economists expected a reading closer to the neutral level at 49.7%.
...
The report noted that activity in the manufacturing sector is now at its lowest point since May 2020, when the economy was severely disrupted due COVID-19 lockdowns.
...
The components of the report showed broad-based weakness within the manufacturing sector. The New Orders Index fell deeper into contract territory to 47.2%, down from October’s reading of 49.2%. At the same time, the Production Index dropped to 51.5%, down from the previous reading at 52.3%.
...

Gold prices holding near session highs above $1800 as ISM manufacturing contracts to 49

(Kitco News) - The gold market is trading near session highs, holding solid gains above $1,800 an ounce as recession fears continue to grow with the manufacturing sector falling into contraction territory, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

www.kitco.com

 

[jelly]

I see a bunch of people taking profits in the gold/silver miners today, but I think this rally still has some legs to it.

 

[Cigarlover]

I see a bunch of people taking profits in the gold/silver miners today, but I think this rally still has some legs to it.

Yes miners definitely did not follow the metals prices up this afternoon. Thought about taking profits myself but decided to see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Voodoo]

I see a bunch of people taking profits in the gold/silver miners today, but I think this rally still has some legs to it.

You held on for this long only to take profits already? Those would be silly people.

For a short-term trading position I've been looking for GDXJ at $38 but silver is just breaking out now. WPM I have some shorter term LEAPS (just jan now) that I will probably take some profit or look to exercise/roll.

 

[TheRealZed]

I see a bunch of people taking profits in the gold/silver miners today, but I think this rally still has some legs to it.

The broader stock market might be about to hit the wall if the Eurodollar U guys are on it. That would be a drag.

 

[Voodoo]

The broader stock market might be about to hit the wall if the Eurodollar U guys are on it. That would be a drag.

Possibly, but at some point Commodities and especially Gold/Silver are going to part from equities. They should vastly outperform in a Stagflationary crash.

 

[Voodoo]

Looking at my general strategy today and thinking about 2023 I think I want my general diversification to be as follows.

30% Short - larger / overvalued stocks
40% Long Commodities
15% Long Meme stocks
15% Long beaten down Spacs or other opportunities.

 

[TheRealZed]

@Zed love your posts with the graphs and comments, but sometimes it's hard to read the fine print to see what data the chart is representing (ie. S&P 500, gold, etc.). If you wouldn't mind adding a short note for that, it would be very helpful for folks like me to fully appreciate what you are sharing.

OK Will do, often do. You must be on a phone!

 

[TheRealZed]

SPX Daily - Hmmmm... done?

 

[pmbug]

... You must be on a phone!

I alternate between phone and computer. I'm also getting older and need readers (glasses) to read small print. On the phone, I can actually zoom in to read details. On the computer, it's more difficult.

 

[Goldhedge]

Fugging hell, showing old Madoff how to get away clean.

Sam Bankman-Fried is the Alec Baldwin of the Bitcoin world...

"It's not my fault."

 

[jelly]

Silver with a classic double/triple/quadruple bottom, whatever you wanna call it. Should be good for atleast $24 on the initial rise out of it.

 

[Voodoo]

Silver is ready to Explode. Just my opinion. Tried to hit it today with the complete fraud of the jobs report and we are already green.

 

[jelly]

yup. I'll say it again, I think this rally still has legs to it. Possibly more than people think. It's very strong.

 

[dpong]

My Weekend Trend Trader Stock Scanner picked up 2 gold mining companies today. Hecla and Novagold. So that's something.

I won't be buying them because I have a full portfolio already with 20 positions. I've been holding these 20 stocks for 5 weeks and am up 5.84% all stocks combined.

[Just sharing because it's kind of cool to get entry signals on the miners.]