Audacity, Tenacity, Veracity.
- Reaction score
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Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said its much-anticipated Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% last month after a 0.1% rise in November.
At the same time, annual inflation rose 6.5% last month, down from November's increase of 7.1%. The data was in line with consensus forecasts.
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% last month, following a 0.2% rise in November. Core inflation also rose in line with economist estimates. For the year, core inflation rose 5.7%, down compared to November's increase of 6.0%.
Although inflation appears to be cooling at a fast face, some analysts note that it still remains elevated. Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said that although inflation is falling its not enough for the Federal Reserve to change directions on monetary policy.
“Overall, this latest report adds more weight to our view that CPI inflation will fall more rapidly than the Fed expects this year. But the Fed isn’t going to stop raising interest rates until it sees accompanying evidence of an easing in labour market conditions and wage growth. It will be a couple more months before that evidence is also irrefutable,” he said in a note.
... Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker ... declared that he is for a 25 basis points in three weeks saying 25bps ... "will be appropriate going forward." Harker is a voter on rates this year, so that tells us that, as of now, there’s at least one vote for 25 at the Feb. 1 meeting ...
“I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed,” Harker said in prepared remarks Thursday for an event in Malvern, Pennsylvania. “In my view, hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.”
Harker also said he expects the Fed to get to just over 5% and then hold, and says it is likely the Fed will hike rates "a few" more times in 2023, although that's probably market dependent.
|PRPL||PURPLE INNOVATION INC|
|FOSL||FOSSIL GROUP INC|
|THRX||THESEUS PHARMACEUTICALS INC|
|PTGX||PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS INC|
|TCMD||TACTILE SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY INC|
|TGTX||TG THERAPEUTICS INC|
|FULC||FULCRUM THERAPEUTICS INC|
|DCT||DUCK CREEK TECHNOLOGIES, INC||DON'T BUY|
|BORR||BORR DRILLING LIMITED|
|UAA||UNDER ARMOUR INC (CLASS A SHARES)|
|UA||UNDER ARMOUR INC (CLASS C SHARES)|
|LTH||LIFE TIME GROUP HOLDINGS INC|
|OIS||OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL INC|
|HL||HECLA MINING COMPANY|
|DO||DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC|
|NR||NEWPARK RESOURCES INC|
|PAYA||PAYA HOLDINGS INC||DON'T BUY|
|OII||OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC|
|HLX||HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP INC|
|FF||FUTURE FUEL CORP|
|FOR||FORESTAR GROUP INC|
|ADMA||ADMA BIOLOGICS INC||SELL|
Against a background of some recent 'better than expected' macro prnts that bolstered the 'soft landing' thesis spurring stocks higher and rate-hike-odds lower, the Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey just stole the jam out of the bulls' donuts.
The NYFed's general business conditions index crashed nearly 22 points to -32.9 this month (twice as bad as the weakest analyst estimate).
I think it has been healthy for silver to stay in neutral while gold ran this month. I think some gold consolidation, as you mentioned, would be expected now, and probably be healthy. Silver may go down with it some, but OI is pretty small so perhaps the correction down, if it occurs, won't be too steep. I think before we start talking about $28 and $30 we need to decisively blast thru $24.50, and then remember that $26 has been an important number going all the way back to 2013. 2c...Silver Daily - Pennant target got hit.
View attachment 6035
New flag shaping up, looks like confidence is growing. Next targets on flag break ~$28 and ~$30... both legitimate previous resistance points.
View attachment 6036
By the looks of Silver any correction in gold will be on the shallower side.
My 2c FWIW.
I think it has been healthy for silver to stay in neutral while gold ran this month. I think some gold consolidation, as you mentioned, would be expected now, and probably be healthy. Silver may go down with it some, but OI is pretty small so perhaps the correction down, if it occurs, won't be too steep. I think before we start talking about $28 and $30 we need to decisively blast thru $24.50, and then remember that $26 has been an important number going all the way back to 2013. 2c...
I liked this Silver chart from Steve Penny and WSS. A potential small pull-back to $21.50 or 200 dMA. Would be very good time to load up.
The producer price index, which measures final demand prices across hundreds of categories, declined 0.5% for the month, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% decline. The decline was the biggest on a monthly basis since April 2020.
The number: U.S. industrial production fell 0.7% in December, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. It is the biggest monthly decline since September 2021.
The decline was steeper than economists expectations of a 0.1% decline, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Output in November was revised down to a 0.6% drop, much worse than the initial estimate of a 0.2% decline.
Yeah, I'd say too low. I'd be worried of we hit that. The 50 DMA really needs to hold up @ the worst here. You want that ~23 level to hold... or better. Refer May/June/July 2020.
Gregory Mannarino sent me an email that says:
50% of the economy is government these days so I can't see them letting that happen, ever. I also can't understand how Wall Street believes that is a real threat.I think that it is the possibility of no agreement on raising the debt ceiling.
How come it is we're geniuses here and knew it was pointing that way a long while ago and they're just figuring it out?