The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Zed

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It appears that that bond market is not buying it. No major move in the 10 year yield NOR any “safety trade” looking at dollar relative strength

Yeah the bond market doesn't seem to be buying that idea at all. The charts do kind of look like there could be more upside in rates. Maybe it's simply that the market doesn't believe the Fed is serious yet. Maybe this is a giant game of chicken with rates. So I guess the question is who capitulates first. We might see a sharp sell off in Bonds if the fed really hard lines it.
 

Zed

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They ALWAYS believe the banker (FED) fairytales. IE they are going to perfectly manage a soft landing and we won't have a recession.

I don't think they believe it I think they need you to believe it as the buying public. It's this whole perception trump's reality doctrine. Staying positive is good for business just like you'll never hear a real estate agent say a bad word about real estate. All they ever do is backup thier time frame until it's wide enough that what they're saying makes some sense.
 

Zed

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Looks like most markets shit the bed a little while ago. I wonder what sparked that.

I guess most things will be caught up in the initial downdraft until people work out what makes sense and get a little braver. I guess that is where this gold correction is coming from.
 
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... Houard disclosed to WSJ that the prototype laser costs about $2.17 billion. ...

Is that all? This sounds like a better solution:

 

dpong

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Alibaba (BABA) developed a Weekend Trend Trader buy signal. LOL.

It is not in the universe of stocks that I'm trading, so I won't be buying it.

BABA_2023-01-20_16-31-31.png
 

Goldhedge

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BABA is shipping to the US. Cheaper goods means more buyers.
 

Cigarlover

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I would tighten the stops on those inflation hedge stocks. Gold Silver Uranium.
Maybe if I ever get back to even I will consider it. After holding for 2 years, there isn't much point in trying to preserve what's left.LOL. Any new positions I get into, I get out rather quickly. In this market, I'm not interested in long term investing. Whipsaws way to much for my liking.
 

jelly

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Gold and silver are in such contrasting positions right now.
Gold is starting to look parabolic, (but does look like it has more upside yet...)

gold.png


Silver, on the other hand, is looking poised to bust a big move. Indicators have pulled back while silver has coiled tightly sideways. This could have a forceful move up...IF it breaks up.


silv.png

What concerns me about putting too much faith in silver is that gold is looking like it's almost done. Silver doesn't normally move higher without gold participating. So if gold tops and drops, silver should stumble with it. Such a contrast!
 

Cigarlover

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Gold and silver are in such contrasting positions right now.
Gold is starting to look parabolic, (but does look like it has more upside yet...)

View attachment 6183


Silver, on the other hand, is looking poised to bust a big move. Indicators have pulled back while silver has coiled tightly sideways. This could have a forceful move up...IF it breaks up.


View attachment 6182

What concerns me about putting too much faith in silver is that gold is looking like it's almost done. Silver doesn't normally move higher without gold participating. So if gold tops and drops, silver should stumble with it. Such a contrast!
I noticed last week the explorers were starting to get a little action. Doesn't that usually happen at the end of a move in silver?
 

Zed

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Gold and silver are in such contrasting positions right now.
Gold is starting to look parabolic, (but does look like it has more upside yet...)

View attachment 6183


Silver, on the other hand, is looking poised to bust a big move. Indicators have pulled back while silver has coiled tightly sideways. This could have a forceful move up...IF it breaks up.


View attachment 6182

What concerns me about putting too much faith in silver is that gold is looking like it's almost done. Silver doesn't normally move higher without gold participating. So if gold tops and drops, silver should stumble with it. Such a contrast!

Yes... but silver looks 'contained' not weak so we might just see some residual pressure in that market if gold takes a breather.
 

savvydon

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Yes... but silver looks 'contained' not weak so we might just see some residual pressure in that market if gold takes a breather.
'Contained' is one way to put it. Tied, whipped, and chained is another. Down a dirty dollar as I type. Ouch babe!...
 
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jelly

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Silver taking a dumpy-doo. Woops! Looking like this first move up in silver is over.

Gold still holding firm, strange!
 

savvydon

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Silver taking a dumpy-doo. Woops! Looking like this first move up in silver is over.

Gold still holding firm, strange!
GSR is up over 83 again. TPTB are pushing hard. When this thing lets go it should have some legs... if I'm alive to see it.

Still singing the song of the permabull, but this bullfight is getting long in the tooth.
 

jelly

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silver miners aren't really moving much to the downside. Looks like investors are thinking this is a fakeout. Some positive signs atleast.
 

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It's odd to see the Dollar index and the S&P green for the morning and gold, silver and cryptos red. gold, silver and cryptos have been more or less correlated with the S&P in recent times.
 

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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) suffered a significantly worse than expected drop in December, tumbling 1.0% MoM (vs -0.7% exp), and the 1.0% decline in November was revised down to a 1.1% drop.
...
This is the 10th straight monthly decline in the LEI (and 11th month of 12) - the longest streak of declines since 'Lehman' (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)

“The US LEI fell sharply again in December - continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board.
...


Did this news affect market sentiment? I would have thought it would affect equities (S&P) if so...
 

Zed

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Did this news affect market sentiment?

A very old trading adage is that "market action makes news". Very rarely the other way around. Which is to say that unless it is a totally unforecastable surprise to the market the news will not move price, they will pick the news to support the market action. All that can be known is in today's price expectation, right or wrong. I once watched as MSM attributed a good move up in the S&P to the rescue of some miners. Slow news day... and completely f'ing brain dead... bet they where kinda serious.
 
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Cigarlover

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This is the kind of stuff that should be illegal. Market makers just taking out the stops, long and shot. So after this wild swing in NIO at the open, it settles down immediately and is up 7 cents. LOL. Screen Shot 2023-01-24 at 9.49.24 AM.png
 
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Cigarlover

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Same thing with BABA. TSLA they left alone though, to heavily traded to play games with.
Screen Shot 2023-01-24 at 9.54.09 AM.png
 
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Voodoo

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This is the kind of stuff that should be illegal. Market makers just taking out the stops, long and shot. So after this wild swing in NIO at the open, it settles down immediately and is up 7 cents. LOL. View attachment 6228

It was a market "glitch" lol. Tons of giant companies opened up or down big.


"glitches" inspire confidence...
 

pmbug

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Are "glitches" better or worse than "fat fingers"? The great philosophical question of our modern times...
 

pmbug

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Bad news... Goldman telling folks gold is a good investment...

Commodities are in store for a 'bullish concoction' in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs, which sees a combination of the macro environment and low inventories boosting prices.

The commodities sector is looking at "superior total returns" in 2023 and is expected to outperform other asset classes, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.
...
Gold is projected to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and a global de-dollarization trend, Goldman noted.

"Gold, in particular, is likely to be on a cusp of sustained upside as de-dollarisation is very bullish gold... at a time that the Fed is likely to increasingly shift towards growth concerns slowing its rate hike path allowing ETF holdings to stabilise," it added. "We believe a sustained inflection in the USD provides an ingredient for a fairly significant upside in commodities."

 

Cigarlover

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It was a market "glitch" lol. Tons of giant companies opened up or down big.


"glitches" inspire confidence...
I saw it on a few of the companies I follow. MO and Oxy are 2 others. It usually isn't that drastic but you do see this type of action fairly often but usually it's contained to within 10% or so un the upside and downside. Just hunting for stops.

So because of this glitch do people get their money back that were stopped out? If you were fast enough to make a move on that glitch and make a killing do you get to keep it?

Ok I just read the article. Looks like you can file a claim.
 
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