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GDX Daily - Starting to look a little like we might hold up around these levels (31.22?) and drag that lower bolly band up to us. Sideways for a little? Bouncing off the mid Bolly level area is a good trend indication.

GDX_2023-02-01_09-30-32.png
 
DXY Daily - Speaking of mid Bolly Bands, DXY looks to have really lost its mojo. I expected more... vatching, vaiting.

DXY_2023-02-01_09-35-01.png
 
Yen Gold Daily - bouncing mid Bolly band just off all time Yen highs (err I think, limited data history!)

XAUJPY_2023-02-01_09-41-09.png
 
Gold Silver Ratio Weekly - We want to see this turn down around here. Looks OK for it on the weekly, ROC divergent on the daily. Could be about to roll over again.

GOLDSILVER_2023-02-01_09-44-50.png
 
AUD Daily - Starting to look like more than a correction, could be in danger of establishing a longer term trend here. Time for the commodity trade to accelerate again? We will see @ trend. I kinda expect a flight to safety USD rally, but we will see.

AUDUSD_2023-02-01_09-49-42.png
 
Gold Option Volume most active down to the money. Most action going on around the 2K level.

1675212495232.png
 
ASX:NST Daily - Flagship Aussie gold stock. Holding firm over the smaller issues and not really correcting. If insto's are buying they are buying NST.

NST_2023-02-01_12-14-35.png
 
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Tom Luongo to the Fed: Go BIG or go home.

[Fifty basis points.]

tomluongo.me

This Week's FOMC: What Does Jay Powell Really Care About? - Gold Goats 'n Guns

With the markets still firmly convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed Funds Rate by just 25 basis points (0.25%) on Wednesday, I find it fascinating that no less a figure than Mohamed El-Erian, former head of PIMCO, argued for the Fed to stay the course and surprise markets with another...
tomluongo.me tomluongo.me
 
While the markets/everyone are waiting on the Fed today, some FWIW data:
... the headline manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management disappointed expectations in January, contracting for the third month in a row.

The ISM manufacturing index was at 47.4% last month versus the consensus forecast of 48%. The monthly figure also marked a one-percentage-point decrease from December’s reading of 48.4%.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

ISM Manufacturing Index contracts for the third month in a row in January

www.kitco.com
 
Voodoo said:
Agreed, I've sold a couple Put spreads dipping my toe into the water. Think I have the $10-$8 spread and $8.5-6.5 spread on UNG. Energy is energy and we need every form we can get. Except for nat gas all the sudden, lol. Somehow cheaper than when oil went negative. I had to go look up actual energy contents and looks like 1 BOE (barrel of oil equvalent) is ~5.55 mmBtu (common nat gas measurement). That's about 18% and we shouldn't really go below that level. Edit: It looks like 18% is low and I forgot you would need a bunch more energy to refine the oil so that probably accounts for the higher natural levels.

View attachment 6509
Click to expand...

Well natural gas is still collapsing today. Glad I went small. I'll add when I see some signs of a bottom and get some more cash.

1675269993797.png
 
That was expected. Is JPow's press conference still on track in ~30 minutes for "forward guidance"?
 
...
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
...
Click to expand...

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. I
www.federalreserve.gov
 
JPow putting everyone on notice. The Fed is going to continue to bring the pain until inflation submits.
 
NasDaq Daily - Looks OK here, for now. Monthly ROC is about to go positive, typically we either rally for a few months or sell off from that point. Does this year become a classic sell in May? I have to say that after a big sell off the first test of the 0 line on the monthly ROC tends to be a sell. Not a lot of data on that, however...

NDX_2023-02-02_09-05-49.png
 
GDX Monthly - Stepping back and looking at this broadening formation, it looks like we are close to the start gun on what should be a very big move. +35 monthly close (closing trend) or for the conservative +38/39 (recent highs).

It would be brutal if we swung back to the formations lower bound one more time, not impossible... but DAMN! If we ever see 18 again BUY it all... LOL.

GDX_2023-02-02_09-13-54.png
 
SPX Monthly - Looks more like a potential cap @ these levels, ROC struggling @ 0 not looking that good in the wider time frame. Needs volume to pick up, the mid Bolly Band level could be the limit.

SPX_2023-02-02_09-24-03.png
 
@Zed Here is my monthly SPX chart. What I see is a possible A-B-C downward move.

We've made the A move down. We get the B little bounce. Then, if it should occur, we get the C move down equal in length to the A move down.

Rough calculations that puts us to around 3000 on SPX.

[Not predicting, just looking.]
SPX_2023-02-01_17-27-04.png
 
This move up (in the daily) is fairly broad based it seems. I just ran my stock scanner mid-week (when it is not yet valid) and I got 30 buy signals Uh, that's a lot. Lots of participation.
 
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