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dpong said:
@Zed Here is my monthly SPX chart. What I see is a possible A-B-C downward move.

We've made the A move down. We get the B little bounce. Then, if it should occur, we get the C move down equal in length to the A move down.

Rough calculations that puts us to around 3000 on SPX.

[Not predicting, just looking.]
View attachment 6546
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Looks totally plausible to me. Fibo targets on the monthly below...

SPX_2023-02-02_09-47-16.png
 
Interestingly a 161.8% target over run would be the 2020 panic lows give or take a smidge.
 
dpong said:
This move up (in the daily) is fairly broad based it seems. I just ran my stock scanner mid-week (when it is not yet valid) and I got 30 buy signals Uh, that's a lot. Lots of participation.
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Seems like markets are expecting the Fed to roll through the stop sign on the corner, even though the Fed said they aren't taking the foot off of the brake until the car comes to a complete stop.
 
So the FED "raised rates" today by 25 bps. BUT in reality all rates dropped by about 15-20 bps. Is this a serious crack in the FED's credibility?
 
It feels like everyone sees the 25 bp raise as signaling a coming pivot.

[I'm not sure about that.]
 
Zed said:
Gold and Silver are still in the correction window, not out of the woods yet.
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The main thrust for the PMs today was the drop in the dollar. We are still susceptible to dollar reversal, imo. Still, as we start to engage 2000, it will be hard to ignore what gold has done the past few months.
 
pmbug said:
Seems like markets are expecting the Fed to roll through the stop sign on the corner, even though the Fed said they aren't taking the foot off of the brake until the car comes to a complete stop.
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Yeah, it needs to sink in. I wonder if that happens tomorrow morning or in May?
 
savvydon said:
The main thrust for the PMs today was the drop in the dollar. We are still susceptible to dollar reversal, imo. Still, as we start to engage 2000, it will be hard to ignore what gold has done the past few months.
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1980 ish seems to be the top of the resistance range. Then I guess round numberitis will set in!
 
Zed said:
The ASX gold tribe have moved a solid +5% today.
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Will be Interesting to see when the junior stocks speculators return In force . Possibly once we decisively break and hold the $US 2000 level
 
Voodoo said:
So the FED "raised rates" today by 25 bps. BUT in reality all rates dropped by about 15-20 bps. Is this a serious crack in the FED's credibility?
Click to expand...
He did addresss that in the Q&A after his speech today but I actually dont remember what he said.

Overall I still think he is on the right track in addressing inflation and wanting to get it down to 2%. Don't know if he will succeed but he's on the right course IMO.
Things that were not addressed by the media in the Q&a which I think should have been are the government spending issues along with the debt. He did say congress will raise the debt ceiling as they always have and should but no comment on how the government spending is inflationary and what impact that will have on future fed policies. Another issue I see looming is with China coming back online and commodities set to soar once again. That will be highly inflationary and I don't see any remedy for that.
More rate hikes coming, data dependent. No rate cuts this year.
 
Carrion Crow said:
Any thoughts on how overall commodities look?
If thinking upside any opinions on GCC? A Rick Rule recommendation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GCC?p=GCC&.tsrc=fin-srch
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Might be a buy from a fundamental longer term point of view but from a trading perspective it's a gappy, lower volume chart. Looks illiquid. I'd not be putting money in that you have to get out in a hurry if the market hiccups. Looks like its trying to bottom around these levels but given the liquidity I could see the arse falling out of it in a general market sell off. Might be a good add on a panic sell. Anway, yes I like commodities over the next few years and I can't say I know enough about the fund to pass comment. If Rule rates it then you'd have to think it is solid!
 
Cigarlover said:
Overall I still think he is on the right track in addressing inflation and wanting to get it down to 2%
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I keep hearing the narrative that commodites are going to drive inflation regardless of Fed action here. For as long as they are fighting something they can't beat 2% might be a pipe dream. As I understand it they are not even fighting in the same ring, crushing the economy with monetary policy might end up looking like a very stupid move in 10 years! We C...
 
Because the US cannot fund itself at these rates long term and it seems that inflation is being driven by forces less responsive to interest rates than the Fed is aware this is likely going to be the future for the USA.



Burn the currency, baby, burn the currency!
 
...
Thursday, in line with expectations, the ECB raised interest rates across the board by 50 basis points; the main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility and the deposit facility rose to 3.00%, 3.25% and 2.50% respectively.

The ECB also warned investors that it is not through raising interest rates as inflation remains a threat to the region’s economy.

“The Governing Council will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement. “In view of the underlying inflation pressures, the Governing Council intends to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in March and it will then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy,” the ECB said in its monetary policy statement.
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www.kitco.com

Gold prices holding steady as ECB raises interest rates by 50 basis points and will continue its aggressive path in March

(Kitco News) - The gold market is not seeing much movement, holding gains above $1,950 an ounce after the European Central Bank raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
www.kitco.com
 
Zed said:
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I remember what happened in the 70's

Nixon 'temporarily' took us off the gold standard and we migrated to the petro dollar which was set up by Kissinger because the rest of the world wanted gold instead of endlessly printed 'dollars'.

They blamed it on nonexistent gold 'speculators'.

Gas lines wage & price freezes happened because of the transition to a new monetary system.
 
You like to gamble Natural Gas is nearing 6 months off the highs. Only a shade over 2 bucks from 0. Seems like my energy company locked in forever at the highs.
 
pmbug said:
View attachment 6559
lulz
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DXY Monthly - If this is a longer term USD bull market, as Brent @ Santiago Capital theorizes, this is around the level you'd be looking for a bounce/rally. Yes it has been a sharp/big correction but it was a big move. Fibo projections from here target the mid ~120's, a smidge over the last highs. I've long thought that the USD goes up with gold and that this bull market, at least in the first part, looks tamer in USD than it does out here in the wilds. I'm not married to the idea but I've not given up on it, it jut makes sense that the USD is the last to die. At some point I think the USD falls apart and then gold potentially goes nuts in USD... but I suspect that by that point we will be seeing a significant change in the currency, some flavor of CBDC.

DXY_2023-02-03_04-00-23.png
 
Lancers32 said:
Seems stocks like war. Return to a gold standard?


www.armstrongeconomics.com

Gold V Digital Fiat & Marxism | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Hi AE...so gov't "money" (fiat currency) will become just some abstract floating measurement of value, an electronic entry in an electronic account
www.armstrongeconomics.com www.armstrongeconomics.com
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The wealth of any nation is the productive capacity of its people.
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I've often argued this... the money merely represents this. FIAT and Gold both have issues in this role. The former distorts and the latter can choke an economy. The ideal might be an algorithmically controlled digital currency out of the reach of government but I suspect we can't yet write the algorithm and no government of today would willingly submit to the restriction on the limitless spending required to stay in power.

It would not matter what we use for money right now, they want to create World War III so they can default, and escape from the abuse of this Marxism that they have turned into a system of borrowing
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I fear that this part is right on the money.

 
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2% more and this stock market rally goes full meltup according to this. Will the bears come out in earnest to defend?

 
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