The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Please have a look around and if you like what you see, please consider registering an account and joining the discussions. When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

@hernancortes - did your message get cut off? I don't understand your comment.

~~~

Gold and the S&P 500 have both rallied to record highs in March, but an analysis provided by Jefferies suggests that the precious metal may perform a bit better than the index in the next month.
...
Analysts at Jefferies wrote in a recent note that while easing by the Federal Reserve should benefit both stocks and gold, “it seemed a bit peculiar to us that both would act well together,” so they set out to look at how the index and gold trade following instances when gold is up 5% or more in a month of trading.

“We wanted to see if, easing or not, a rally for each asset could coexist peacefully,” wrote Andrew Greenebaum, senior vice president, equity product management at Jefferies.

He pointed out that gold is “not just making new highs, but really breaking out,” with Fed easing expected to be a “nice catalyst for the yield-free asset,” he wrote. Friday’s “soft” monthly U.S. employment report didn’t do anything to dent those perceived prospects, he said.

Scanning for similar gold rallies going back to 1990, Jefferies found that 5% gold rallies tend to coincide with ”rockier” SPX performance, with one-week to one-month performance “negative to flattish” and while less consistent, gold “tends to see better price performance than SPX in the 12 months after the “initial rip,” averaging 9%-plus, he said.
...

 
Wholesale prices accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in February, another reminder that inflation remains a troublesome issue for the U.S. economy.

The producer price index, which measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and finished goods, jumped 0.6% on the month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That was higher than the 0.3% forecast from Dow Jones and comes after a 0.3% increase in January.
...


Headwind for a rate cut. Headwind for gold.
 

The Bond market is where the REAL bubble and REAL problems exist. When bonds go down in price the yields go Higher. The money dies as the bond market dies. Therefore, in the endgame, rising interest rates are VERY bullish for gold.

There will be some remaining idiot algo's trying to do that trade but they are going to get their arse's handed to them more and more.
 
This is not metal, but a possible trade...?

🇨🇮🇬🇭🍫 African cocoa plants reportedly exhaust their bean supply as the worldwide chocolate crisis is intensifying

Major cocoa facilities in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire have stopped or reduced production (https://en.sputniknews.africa/20240314/1065541193.html) because they cannot afford to purchase beans, the Western media reported, citing four trade sources. As a result, global chocolate prices are expected to rise significantly.

Transcao, a state-owned bean processor in Cote d'Ivoire, has announced that it had stopped purchasing beans due to the high price, adding that it is so far continuing its operations by processing beans from its existing stock, according to the report. More major state-run facilities may be shortly shut down.

In Ghana, most of the country's eight cocoa processing plants have been forced to suspend work multiple times for several weeks at a time since the start of the cocoa season in October.

Subscribe to @sputnik_africa

🔸 TikTok (https://www.tiktok.com/@sputnik.africa) | Sputnik Africa (https://en.sputniknews.africa/) | Boost us on Telegram (https://t.me/sputnik_africa?boost) 🔸

 
I would expect that consumers will forgo chocolate if they are having trouble making ends meet and it gets too expensive. It's a luxury, not a necessity.

~~~

...
What the PPI is telling us. The measure that tracks consumer-facing inflation, the Consumer Price Index, has for months seen hot and rising services inflation, but durable-goods inflation has been negative (deflation) since the peak of the spike in 2022, and these negative readings in durable goods, plus the plunging energy prices of yore provided a big counterweight to services inflation and a downward push for the overall CPI readings in 2023. But this counterweight and downward push is now in the early stages of fizzling – that’s what the PPI is telling us.


~~~

Manufacturing activity in the New York region collapsed this month, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.

The regional central bank said on Friday that its Empire State manufacturing survey slid to -20.9 in March, far below February’s reading of -2.4. The data was much worse than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a shallower decline to -7.

“Manufacturing activity fell significantly in New York State in March, with a decline in new orders pointing to softening demand,” said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “Labor market conditions remained weak as both employment and hours worked decreased.”
...


So, inflation getting worse and the economy getting worse too?
 
Based upon absolutely nothing, I'm kind of expecting gold and silver to have a good week starting tomorrow. Probably that means it trades sideways to slightly down, but I'm kinding of epecting the metals to surprise.
 
Also based upon absolutely nothing, I predict this a ploy to encourage goldbugs for the final moonshot. Then when the price is smashed yet again, the capitulation will be more severe and half this forum will need to be put on suicide watch 😂
 
FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Markets likely to limp along as they await word from the Fed that rates won't change and they are watching data. :dontknow:
 
Feeling like 1928 all over again...


Stock concentration is now at Great Depression levels:

According to Goldman Sachs, the market cap of the largest stock is now 750 TIMES the market cap of a 75th percentile stock.

To put this in perspective, even at the peak of the 2000 Dot-com bubble the metric only hit 550x.

We officially have a higher stock concentration than the peak of the Great Depression in 1932.

The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.

Big tech IS the stock market.

 
S&P 500 monthly chart. S&P has been super-strong for 5 straight months so far.

SPX_2024-03-20_15-39-07.png
 
Which horse do you bet your schilling on? The gold pony or the Bitcoin stallion? As far as trading, crypto wins; but the gold is to hold. BTC is still just a hunk of code on a hard drive.
In the end you will still have gold. Right now though crypto is doing exactly what the creators of it wanted and they're benefitting from the taxes generated off it as well.
 
Last edited:
...
🇨🇮🇬🇭🍫 African cocoa plants reportedly exhaust their bean supply as the worldwide chocolate crisis is intensifying
...

One of the world's largest cocoa processors is scouring the globe for beans as weather and disease spark massive crop failures across West Africa and catapult prices in New York to record highs.

"Everybody is panicking," said Brandon Tay Hoe Lian, chief executive officer of Guan Chong Bhd. He said the company is attempting to procure beans from minor growing countries, including Ecuador, Peru, and Indonesia.

The CEO of the Kuala Lumpur-listed company said prices are soaring weekly as coca beans become harder and harder to find: "We not only have to fight for beans, we're also paying premiums."
...
Citi Research analysts recently advised clients that prices could reach as high as $10,000 a ton and stay in record-high territory through the second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, US chocolate maker Hershey Company warned last month: "Historic cocoa prices are expected to limit earnings growth this year."
...

More:


Commodity price to spike, chocolate products makers to get squeezed either on profits (keep prices low) or on lower sales (raise prices).
 
Last edited:
Gold has a solid breakout, and miners and still underperforming. I don't know how many times I can say this, but this is just astonishing. Miners should be blasting higher, but they continue to hold back. What a pathetic sight. I've never put much into the 'manipulation' theory, but miners definitely make you wonder if they are purposely being held back.

Below is chart of gold the last time it had a major breakout @ $1,000 in September 2009. It promptly ran 20% to 1,200 before any serious pullback. On the way to 1,200 the pullbacks were brief and only lasted 2 weeks.
An equivalent move today would take gold to $2,400 before any serious pullback. with the apparent manipulation, this time may be different.
gold-breakout.png
 
I think the disconnect is likely that the gold move is not being driven by Wall Street (whicch would presumably be active with miners too). When does Wall Street wake up?

giphy.gif
 
FWIW:
...
For gold to set fresh highs, however, Razaqzada said the greenback must resume its downward trajectory.
...
Looking ahead, Razaqzada said that the main risk event this week for both the greenback and gold prices will be the Core PCE Price Index on Friday, after which the market’s attention will turn to the March Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI reports early next month.

“The March US data, scheduled for early April release, holds considerable sway over the dollar's trajectory,” he said. “Weakness in these figures, especially in forthcoming inflation data, could precipitate a sustained decline in the dollar, potentially lending support to gold.”

Turning to the technical picture, Razaqzada said that all indications point to gold continuing its recent uptrend in the medium and longer term, even though profit-taking and USD strength have sapped its momentum in recent days.
...

 
Government data Friday, and the end of the quarter. I’d say there’s some window dressing going on.
Full moon this week too, often signal changes in the market
 

Financial Mkts: Dollar Strength Still There & Holding Back Rallies in Other Mkts; Ira's Vid 3 26 24​


9:24

Metals: Dollar Strength Still Apparent & Holding Back Rallies in Other Markets; Ira's Video 3 26 24​


6:18
 
Gold looking resilient this morning. Spot is creeping back up on $2200. Meanwhile Finviz Comex contract chart is around $2213.
 
Government data Friday, and the end of the quarter. I’d say there’s some window dressing going on.
Full moon this week too, often signal changes in the market

Markets are closed Friday. So three day weekends at the end of the quarter. Some WOO people seriously think April is going to be rough (like crash rough), not sure exactly when with several days thrown around. I just loaded up on some VXX calls and SPY puts to try and recover some loses and hedge.
 
Gold looking strong this morning. Broke through $2200. We'll see if it holds or not.
 
wouldnt have been surprised to see a beat down today ( last day of trading ) as we move into month end, quarter end and tax yer end. Perhaps holding it to just below $2200 will be enough .....
 
Coeur Mining generated a buy signal in my Weekend Trend Trader system.
I won't be buying it as I already have 20 open positions, a full house.

20 week break-out. It's definitely trending at this time.

CDE_2024-03-28_17-15-46.png
 
So gold closed the week above $2220. That seems significant. It's likely the $2200 line gets tested on market open on Monday and if it holds, gold is likely going higher next week.
 
Back
Top Bottom