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Zed said:
GDXJ was one of the bigger movers today. Juniors taking the lead is a decent indication. GDXJ has strengthened against GDX in this bottoming period.
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See page 26. Inverse H & S reversal pointing right at 38. A nice 23% pop potential.
 
Voodoo said:
See page 26. Inverse H & S reversal pointing right at 38. A nice 23% pop potential.
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LOL

I hate that pattern... everyone gets it WRONG.

Get back to me when it breaks the neckline and then we can work out if it is indeed that.

FWIW the volume pattern just looks like churn below resistance. A pretty normal looking bottoming process IMO, but looking like a bottom none the less!
 
Are they losing control?

The Shift From Paper to Hard Assets Is Just Beginning.​

CORRECTION. I said Andy Schectman said that 1/2 of 1% of investable assets are in SILVER but it is actually 1/2 of 1% of INVESTABLE ASSETS in the PRECIOUS METALS space.
 
Zed said:
LOL

I hate that pattern... everyone gets it WRONG.

Get back to me when it breaks the neckline and then we can work out if it is indeed that.

FWIW the volume pattern just looks like churn below resistance. A pretty normal looking bottoming process IMO, but looking like a bottom none the less!
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Sure, not real far away but need to hold about the ~50 dMa here. Bounce soon and then look to get to the neckline at $32. And yes, that's really a continuation pattern but it's still a good looking potential reversal.
 
Does anyone have clue why silver eagles are getting such a premium over other forms of silver? Since the GIM1 days, the common motto was "silver is silver" And that made sense (at least to me).
 
US Mint / legal tender - secret service protection against counterfeiting ( supposed to be anyway) / eligible for IRAs IIRC / liquid market
 
Carrion Crow said:
Does anyone have clue why silver eagles are getting such a premium over other forms of silver? Since the GIM1 days, the common motto was "silver is silver" And that made sense (at least to me).
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Biggest reason is the mint pretty much cut production by like 80%. Are they hording or just not buying any silver? We do not know why exactly.
 
A similar dynamic occurred circa 2008 when silver was scarce (from all mints/producers). ASEs were high demand and commanded higher premiums (both buying and selling).
 
Carrion Crow said:
Does anyone have clue why silver eagles are getting such a premium over other forms of silver? Since the GIM1 days, the common motto was "silver is silver" And that made sense (at least to me).
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In Ted Butler's writings he refers to a guy called Ira. Ira laid out the case for silver Eagles two decades ago. If you look back through Butler's archives you might still be able to read it.
 
I don't see any shortage from the mint in 2008. So that was probably all demand driven. This is an interesting chart and gets the point across.

www.moderncoinmart.com

American Silver Eagles Mintage Chart

Current silver eagles mintage chart. Figures accurate as of 1/16/2022.
www.moderncoinmart.com www.moderncoinmart.com

2022*3,501,000

by FAR the lowest in recent history. Like 10% of 2020's production of ~30 million.
 
Breaking news right now: amazon lowers guidance in earnings report. Market responds with monkey hammer.
 
Because of Izzy and Butler's efforts ASE's were being ramped by the hivemind in 2008. It drove G3 nuts, just made me smile.
 
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I'm not sure who this IRA guy is, but he sure does like to mark up one particular designer brand.

IRA silver.jpg
 
Two cranky old goldbugs on the subject. Bob's take on what happens if the Democrats lose the mid terms is interesting. Even if ti is all proven I can't see Biden going to jail... but... I'm not even certian that the elections will be clean, I kinda see the Dem's winning no matter how you lot vote! Glad to be WRONG about that.

 
pmbug said:
Not sure if joking, but IRA = individual retirement arrangements

Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs) | Internal Revenue Service

Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs)
www.irs.gov www.irs.gov
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I was joking about Uncle Ira, but look at that price variance! I realize the US Mint / legal tender - secret service protection against counterfeiting part of it, but it has always been that way. but I've never seen a spread from spot price (and other forms of silver) like now.
 
dpong said:
But hey, either you're running a non-discretionary trading system or you aren't.
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I've run 'systems' in the past and I came to the conclusion that you needed to take into consideration the macro conditions that best suited the system. We have been in that BTFD, buy the index mode since 2009. IMO this has to be a sea change.

If I was doing it today I'd consider using something like Hedgeye's Quad system and tweaking the systems for the 4 quads.

I've done enough back testing to know that there can be massive performances differences across different market environments based on changing things like stop loss parameters or entry and exit parameters just a little. The other thing that works is altering your stock universe given the conditions, that puts some macro into the system without altering the system. Again the quads would give you 4 stock universes with which to trade as conditions alter.

2c ---> JM loud mouthed O!
 
Carrion Crow said:
but I've never seen a spread from spot price (and other forms of silver) like now.
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It got worse circa 2008 or so. My memory is hazy, but I seem to remember an almost 50 cent premium on ASEs over private mint bullion. Of course, spot was $40+ and premiums across the board were, for the time, crazy high (though nowhere near 100% like today).
 
pmbug said:
It got worse circa 2008 or so. My memory is hazy, but I seem to remember an almost 50 cent premium on ASEs over private mint bullion. Of course, spot was $40+ and premiums across the board were, for the time, crazy high (though nowhere near 100% like today).
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Absolutely, the bug world was pushing them hard and a lot of new entrants (crisis refugees!) took that as the thing to do.

Old G3 argued that they all go for melt at the top so it didn't matter in the end. However on the way up it appears that ASE's rule.
 
When spot silver hit its absolute bottom in late Oct. '08 (high $8 range) Tulving was pricing ASEs at 6.99 over, this was for quantity and he always the cheapest around, period. As late as August '08 he was offering ASEs for 1.79 over.
 
Back in the day Uncle Ted was an easy target around these parts. Guys really gave him the business, some questioning whether Izzy was a figment of Ted's imagination.
"Is he real or Izzy?"
 
Voodoo said:
Biggest reason is the mint pretty much cut production by like 80%. Are they hording or just not buying any silver? We do not know why exactly.
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WTSHTF a silver dollar is a fargin silver dollar. Change for one would be ten silver dimes.

Just try walking in a community-group food marketplace and tell the guy with a dozen eggs that your silver sooper eagle dollar is worth $30.

You'd just better hope the eggs go for less than a silver (any date/issue/grade ) dollar.
 
pmbug said:
Crash will only help you if you want to buy paper. Physical prices aren't coming down anytime soon.
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Physical "prices" must go up. Diesel fuel brings your hamburgers and your everyday needs. We are almost done with all our diesel, and that is just ONE of the myriad things we are almost out of.
 
Unca Walt said:
Physical "prices" must go up. Diesel fuel brings your hamburgers and your everyday needs. We are almost done with all our diesel, and that is just ONE of the myriad things we are almost out of.
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Umm, much worse than than. How does one refine silver anyway? Oh yeah, huge amounts of electricity / heat. Europe is shutting down some refiners. Then, how about mining that ore in the first place which you now have fewer refiners to sell to? Huge amounts of diesel. And then you can add in the shipping costs as a minor increase, because although it is heavy it is not bulky.
 
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