The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

10 Year Yield Daily - on the cusp of confirming that double bottom. I'd say that a higher high would be enough here.

US10Y_2023-02-17_12-14-56.png
 
savvydon said:
Don't know if this is supposed to be Elliot wave, and I'm no expert anyway, but that 'wave 5 truncation' looks a little funky to me.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I don't think a Wave 5 can end at the same place as a Wave 3. That would invalidate it as there was no actual upside. But that's the biggest problem with EW theory, there are far too many exceptions and extensions or whatnot.
 
I also disagree with the Elliot wave applied to that chart. It’s not even labelled right however it does comply with a number of the EW rules.
All things being equal, I feel like gold is going to put in a double bottom. If the EW completes a retracement ABC using Fibonacci ratios, there’s not going to be any physical left anywhere. Double bottom however, will confirm support around $1620.
 
Anyway that 2070 double top is ugly. Once we clear those tops and hold above I guess you can be more certain of a major bull move but until that happens we are just in a massive trading range. Silver long term looks even worse. Money to be made trading but $200 Silver stories are just that.

Take a look at the mining indices long term. Funny how the all time highs are well in the rear view mirror even with common stocks pushing ATH levels.
 
Lancers32 said:
A fifth wave does not have to move higher than the third.
Click to expand...

ChatGPT -->

In Elliot Wave Theory, the height of the fifth wave can vary widely and cannot be determined by a fixed value or formula. The height of the fifth wave is determined by a variety of factors, including the degree of trend, the strength of the preceding fourth wave, and the overall market conditions.
In general, the fifth wave is expected to move in the direction of the larger trend and can often extend beyond the end of the third wave. However, it's important to note that Elliot Wave Theory is a subjective form of analysis and can be interpreted differently by different analysts, traders, and investors. Therefore, the exact height of the fifth wave may vary depending on the individual's interpretation of the market conditions and the Elliot Wave structure.
 
Gold Weekly - Looks soft for a couple of weeks @ least, chart suggests that a bottom will take some work here. With some good fortune we will hold one of these fibo levels. Redrawn @ the weekly closes, not that much difference.

GC1!_2023-02-20_09-54-46.png
 
On the double top, volume has been quite constant across the period. I look for a peak @ both ends and a dip in the middle, indicating lack of buyer interest on better prices and plenty of selling interests @ the resistance level. I'm not seeing that here.

Edit --> Sorry I'm looking at the recent action. Not 2070.

Edit --> That said, I can't really see a volume pattern @ 2070 either. The first peak was sold but the second one not so much and buying has been pretty constant. Maybe a slight fall off across the whole period.
 
Last edited:
Zed said:
Gold Weekly - Looks soft for a couple of weeks @ least, chart suggests that a bottom will take some work here. With some good fortune we will hold one of these fibo levels. Redrawn @ the weekly closes, not that much difference.

View attachment 6872
Click to expand...
My vote for a bottom is 1700 wish by April or May. Of course I wouldn't place any bets on that prediction but if we do drop that low thats where I will start buying shares again.
 
Voodoo said:
So what is that chart telling us? How could the revenue per share be down so much? One possibility would be they vastly diluted but I doubt all the miners diluted significantly. I think the only explanation is that the production of Oz of Gold has plummeted and prices need to explode.
Click to expand...
I am not smart enough to know that the only thing I see is the HUI was considerably higher many years back with Gold lower. There has been stock dilution but not enough for that kind of discrepancy.
 
Lancers32 said:
I am not smart enough to know that the only thing I see is the HUI was considerably higher many years back with Gold lower. There has been stock dilution but not enough for that kind of discrepancy.
Click to expand...

I was basing that guess off of basic math (Revenue = Price * Oz produced) in general. But also the, who was it, NEM maybe that showed their production has been down for 22 years and peaked in like 2006.
 
Northstar chart. Been trading this junk for a long time. It seems that it was a lot easier to make money in this sector 30 years ago. He just posted this chart on Twitter today.


FpaprSRXsAEaeAk.jpg
 
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
 
Voodoo said:
How could the revenue per share be down so much?
Click to expand...

I dunno so much about up there but we have more junk miners than quality and they tend to issue A LOT of shares to try and stay afloat. I'd say the chart for "blue chip" miners would look quite different.
 
Lancers32 said:
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
Click to expand...

This is going to be a generational trade. I will probably be an old man but people will be looking for the next Newmont Mining by then the way everyone now looks for the next Tesla or Amazon.
 
Lancers32 said:
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was an interesting period, gold stocks waited til the party was over to get high. I think we need to keep in mind that the market is structured quite differently now in terms of retail access and information dispersal. I'm not sure expectating a similar result is wise. I think that 70's spike might have been retail driving while looking in the rear view mirror. I'm not sure what would happen these days.
 

Bullion Dealer Warns: Global Digital Currency Battle Lines are Drawn. Why GOLD is Being HOARDED!​

In this video I ask my bullion dealer why central banks all around the world are hording gold. Tim, my LCS dealer warns that the global digital currency battle lines that have been drawn. He asks me if I would rather have a central bank digital currency from the Federal Reserve or the European Union or gold and I give him my answer. It's Gold! We also talk with a silver stacking veteran of the Vietnam War about selling his silver. The conversation continues over government debt, recession, the danger of cash being made illegal through executive order, how CBDCs much be resisted, insane federal spending by Congress, and the likelihood of a gold and silver bullion confiscation. Tim Marschner, local coin shop dealer, say things are getting much worse economically with a great deal of hardship ahead. Now is the time to be stacking silver and gold like the gold and silver bullion found in Tim's coin shop! Protect your wealth and purchasing power, and watch as we display the latest silver eagles, gold coins, and buffalo silver rounds in his bullion shop.
Yankee Stacking
 
10 Year Yield Daily - Looking a little range bound here, starting to look like it will roll over again.

US10Y_2023-02-21_21-47-23.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom